Ice and banner: US statements about Greenland accelerate the militarization of the Arctic

Washington hosted a meeting between the US Vice President and Secretary of State with the foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland. The key topic was the status of the island against the background of Donald Trump's claims. As a result, it was not possible to convince the Americans to abandon their aspirations, although a "frank and constructive" discussion took place. At the same time, Copenhagen and Nuuk are ready to consider US security requests. The Russian Embassy in Belgium told Izvestia that the rhetoric around the island is being used to accelerate the militarization of the North and promote the anti-Russian agenda in NATO. Against this background, Europe is discussing an increased presence in Greenland and a possible alliance operation in the Arctic, increasing diplomatic activity. Experts believe that Washington does not remove the military option from the agenda, and Trump may try to implement it under the pretext of "ensuring security."

Negotiations at the White House

Negotiations between US Vice President Jay Dee Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio with the Foreign Ministers of Denmark and Greenland, Lars Loekke Rasmussen and Vivian Motzfeldt, have ended at the White House. It is noteworthy that the meeting in Washington was a rare occasion when Copenhagen and Nuuk presented a united front. According to media reports, the Danes tried to dissuade the Americans from annexing the island.

As a result, Rassmussen said that it was not possible to convince the United States to abandon its desire to take over Greenland. At the same time, according to the head of the Danish Foreign Ministry, a very "frank and constructive" conversation took place, and the parties are even ready to discuss any security requests with the United States.

However, the head of the White House, Donald Trump, on the eve of the negotiations, clearly outlined his interests — any option in which Greenland would not be in the hands of the United States would be unacceptable to him. According to the American president, the United States should receive the island with the support of NATO, otherwise Russia or China may allegedly take this step.

At the same time, both supporters of a possible annexation in any form and its ardent opponents in NATO are somehow accelerating the militarization of the North and are already increasing their presence there under the pretext of threats from Moscow and Beijing, the Russian Embassy in Belgium told Izvestia.

— We see that resonant statements from Washington on the Greenland issue are used by the alliance solely to promote the anti-Russian and anti-Chinese agenda. So, the Europeans have already heard calls for the encirclement of the island and the landing of some kind of large-scale collective landing on it. There was talk of a new operation "Arctic Guardian", conceived by analogy with the already conducted Baltic and Eastern "sentries", openly aimed at deterring Russia, the foreign ministry said.

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How the struggle for the island affects the Arctic and Russian interests in the region

On January 14, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson announced the arrival of several officers of the country's Armed Forces in Greenland. The media also reported that a group of European countries, led by Britain and Germany, is discussing a plan to strengthen its military presence there. Moreover, Belgian Defense Minister Theo Franken, in a conversation with Reuters, suggested that NATO launch a military operation in the Arctic called Arctic Sentry.

— We have to admit that NATO members do not have the mood to resolve issues in a constructive manner. The militaristic spirit in the alliance is only getting stronger, and given the disagreements that have arisen within the bloc on the Greenland issue, its negotiability is becoming less predictable, including on Arctic matters. We consider the alliance's policy of escalating the confrontation in the Arctic region to be counterproductive and extremely dangerous," the Russian Embassy added.

At the same time, Russia still adheres to the position that the Arctic should remain a territory of peace, dialogue and equal cooperation due to the increased strategic importance of the region, the embassy stressed. Moscow remains open to an equal and respectful dialogue.

The probability of annexation of Greenland

It is important to emphasize that Washington does not rule out a military scenario. White House press Secretary Caroline Levitt said at a briefing on January 6 that "all options are always on the table" for Trump. The media also reported that the president's entourage is discussing various ways to "take over" Greenland, including the military. In this case, the NATO bloc would face the most serious test.

If the United States decides on a military scenario, it will be about the use of force against the territory of an ally. Greenland, although autonomous, remains legally part of the Kingdom of Denmark, and the area of operation of Article 5 of the NATO treaty, through Article 6, covers "islands under the jurisdiction of the parties in the North Atlantic Ocean north of the tropic of Cancer." In other words, an armed attack on Greenland formally falls under the logic of collective defense as an attack on Denmark.

The EU understands this perfectly well. European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius stressed that a military takeover of Greenland by the United States would mean the end of NATO. He also added that the EU, if necessary, can help ensure security at the request of Denmark, and recalled the obligations of the allies in the event of aggression against a member of the alliance.

"And there is a Democratic Party inside the United States that will also shout about the annexation, that Trump has ruined relations within NATO, but let's say that American society loves winners, and in the Greenland story, Trump will be the winner if everything goes the way he wants," he shared his opinion with Izvestia political scientist Gevorg Mirzayan.

Despite the obvious legal obstacles, Donald Trump is capable of annexing Greenland, the expert believes. The United States can land troops in the Danish autonomy, justifying this by protecting the island, and not even encounter resistance.

Nevertheless, the Europeans will be able to resist the United States only in one case — if they manage to unite, Mirzayan is sure. But so far, no consolidation of Europe is expected, so there are no prospects in this regard, the expert concluded. At least, the Ukrainian crisis has clearly shown this: recently, European leaders once again failed to agree even on security guarantees for Kiev.

Who is for and against the transfer of Greenland to the control of the United States

At the same time, Brussels is conducting a discussion about Greenland not only around the military component. In France, right on the day of the negotiations in Washington, they announced plans to open their consulate on the island on February 6. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, also assures Greenland of its support. She stressed that the EU has "strong relations" with the Danish autonomy, and the Greenlanders themselves can count on the help of the association.
The situation inside the United States looks disappointing for Trump. According to a Reuters poll, only 17% of Americans support the idea of acquiring Greenland, 47% are against, and another 35% are undecided. A similar situation is observed among residents of the Danish autonomous region.

A similar poll conducted in Greenland a year ago also showed results not in favor of the American leader's claims. When asked directly if residents want Greenland to secede from the Danish Kingdom and become part of the United States, 85% said a firm "no," only 6% agreed, and 9% were undecided. Most of the island's residents would also prefer Danish citizenship.

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The authorities of the autonomy themselves say the same thing. Greenland's Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen said on January 13 that if "here and now" it is necessary to choose between the United States and Denmark, then the choice definitely falls on the latter. The Government of the autonomous Republic also issued a statement in which it explicitly repeated that the island's defense should be provided by NATO forces, since Greenland, as part of the Danish Kingdom, is in the collective defense system. Therefore, it "cannot accept" the seizure of territory in any way.

However, it can occur relatively "painlessly." At the same time, options such as, for example, concluding a free association agreement with Greenland, that is, the United States will be able to provide its military presence in exchange for financial assistance, NBC News writes, citing sources. There is also an easier option — the "purchase" of the island. According to media reports, the cost could reach $700 billion.