Ice gathering: Greenland's accession to the EU was allowed in Brussels
Greenland has the right to become a full-fledged member of the European Union, but the future of the island should be decided only by the local population and Denmark, the European Commission told Izvestia. However, the inhabitants of the island are not yet seeking to join the EU, for fear of losing control over the fishing industry. Analysts are confident that Brussels' military capabilities will not allow Greenland to defend itself from US claims. So far, the parties are hoping for negotiations: in addition to bilateral contacts, the crisis around the island will be discussed at the OSCE site in Vienna in February. If the dialogue fails, Washington will probably switch to a carrot-and-stick strategy: duties will be imposed on Denmark, and its northern autonomy will be bribed financially.
Will the EU be able to protect Greenland from the United States
The situation around Greenland entered an acute crisis phase in early 2026. Emboldened by the successful operation to capture the Venezuelan president, Donald Trump decided to demand with renewed vigor that Denmark hand over the world's largest island to Washington. Copenhagen stubbornly resists this scenario, appealing to its European allies for help.
The European Commission actually ruled out the participation of the United States in determining the future status of Greenland and did not reject the island's right to join the EU.
"Decisions about the future of Greenland should be made exclusively by Greenlanders and Danes," the representative of the European Commission replied to a question from Izvestia regarding the prospects of the island joining the EU.
The idea of including Greenland in the European Union in order to protect it from US claims was previously expressed by former Vice Chancellor and Minister of Economy of Germany Robert Habeck. The island is now considered an overseas territory associated with the EU. In 1973, Greenland joined the then-existing European Economic Community as part of Denmark. But she did not stay there for long, because already in 1982, in a referendum, more than 53% of Greenlanders voted to leave the organization. The islanders wanted to regain control of the fisheries resources, which remain the main branch of Greenland's economy.
This is largely why most of the island's residents are now more inclined to independence and good relations with both the EU and the United States, but without joining them. In October last year, Greenland's Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen called on European countries to invest more actively in the island's economy, stressing that this is partnership, not integration. We are ready to cooperate with the United States in autonomy, but "with respect."
At the same time, Greenland does not want to become part of the United States and will not be governed by Washington, the Greenlandic prime minister said. He clarified that if the island is faced with a choice — the United States or Denmark, he will choose the kingdom.
Meanwhile, the EU is already preparing plans to respond to the claims of the United States. As Bloomberg has learned, Berlin is proposing to consider sending a joint NATO mission to Greenland. Brussels is developing a response plan in case Trump refuses to deploy alliance forces in Greenland. We are talking about the preparation of sanctions against the American corporations Google, X and Microsoft, as well as some banks and financial companies.
The European Union can also help Denmark and Greenland increase their military capabilities through the Readiness 2030 rearmament program. In particular, in May last year, the EU agreed on a €150 billion SAFE (Security Action for Europe) lending mechanism designed to boost joint defense purchases. The member states of the European Economic Area (Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein) can also participate in them, but Greenland is not one of them. Therefore, the European Union will have to conclude a separate agreement with the authorities of the autonomous region in order to provide the island with European security guarantees.
More drastic measures are also being proposed. In particular, the European Parliament has taken the initiative to immediately freeze consideration of the customs agreement with the United States, concluded in the summer of 2025. Influential circles in the French parliament characterize the United States' claims to Greenland as aggression against the whole of Europe. The German Bundestag also intends to discuss the reaction to the crisis around the island. Moreover, there are various approaches to this topic.
"I think we can discuss this." My personal opinion is that in the 21st century, the issue of territories and their inviolability is usually subordinated to the right of nations to self-determination. These two principles, enshrined in the UN Charter, must be compared with each other. If the Greenlanders decide in a referendum that they want to be part of the United States in the future, this decision must be respected," Matthias Mosdorf, a member of the German parliament, told Izvestia.
However, the EU does not have sufficient capacity to maintain Denmark's control over Greenland in the face of pressure from the United States. The main measure of support is likely to remain at the level of declarative statements, and the maximum may result in the imposition of symbolic sanctions, Tigran Meloyan, an employee of the Center for Interdisciplinary Arctic Studies at the Institute of Natural Resources Economics and Climate Change at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia.
— The lack of EU rapid reaction forces in the Arctic, as well as logistics for their deployment, make the scenario of the island's defense by European forces unlikely. In addition, Europe's dependence on American aid to Ukraine will continue to deter escalation in Euro—Atlantic relations," the expert noted.
The capabilities of the EU and Denmark only allow them to negotiate with the United States in order to achieve certain concessions, says Natalia Eremina, Professor at St. Petersburg State University. However, the European Union does not have the resources to fully defend Greenland from the claims of the United States.
How can the US force Denmark to cede Greenland
Last December, Donald Trump appointed Jeff Landry as the US Special Envoy for Greenland. Washington changed its strategy, pointing to Copenhagen's inability to protect the strategically important island. It is for this reason that Denmark must voluntarily hand it over to the United States.
"Greenland's defense is based on two dog sleds. Did you know about this? Two. The dogs. Teams. And at the same time, there are Russian cruisers and submarines, and Chinese cruisers and submarines. We cannot allow this," the American leader said.
The Danish authorities reject these accusations and emphasize that they are increasing the military budget to strengthen Greenland's defense. Copenhagen offers Washington a dialogue in various formats to resolve all problematic issues. In particular, on January 14, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to meet with the foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland, and US senators will hold talks with their Danish counterparts.
The crisis over Greenland will also be discussed at a meeting of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly (PA) on February 19-20 in Vienna, the press service of the body told Izvestia. The United States and Denmark are members of the OSCE, whose main task is to prevent conflicts.
Meanwhile, Washington is already moving to real action. On January 12, Republican Congressman Randy Fine officially introduced the "law on the annexation and granting of the status of the state of Greenland" to the US House of Representatives. The bill gives the President of the United States the authority to take any necessary steps to acquire the island. Trump had previously warned that he would like to resolve the issue "in an amicable way," but the United States "will get Greenland one way or another."
The first set of American levers of pressure involves the allocation of large-scale funds to Greenland to encourage the island's secession, as well as a wide package of financial assistance to the autonomy tied to the holding of an independence referendum there. Considering that Greenland's budget is more than half funded by Copenhagen, the United States may offer to take on this financial burden, Tigran Meloyan believes.
— Coercion of Copenhagen through the imposition of duties on Danish exports is also possible. Danish wind energy and pharmaceuticals could be under attack," the analyst suggests.
The third set of tools includes a show of force through an increased US military presence around Greenland, which will be presented as a necessary measure to combat Russia and China. The rhetoric of using "hard power" against the island may increase as the US congressional elections approach, but it risks splitting NATO and transforming Europe's attitude towards the United States.
Washington is able to undertake diplomatic maneuvers, including negotiations with the Greenlanders behind Denmark's back. According to Reuters, U.S. officials discussed the possibility of paying from $10,000 to $100,000 to each Greenlander. This is how they want to convince them to vote for secession from Denmark and later join the United States.
The support of pro-American factions and lobbying for bilateral deals on the rights to deploy additional American bases and provide access to the island's resources bypassing Copenhagen are also possible, Meloyan concluded.
Natalia Eremina draws attention to the purpose of Washington's claims to Greenland — to establish control over the Arctic and the Northern Sea Route. In this way, American strategists expect to limit the access of Russia and China to the World Ocean and complicate the trade operations of the two countries. Therefore, it is beneficial for the Russian Federation to prolong disputes over the ownership of the island in order to clash the interests of the United States and the EU. Against this background, Russia is increasing its presence in the Arctic and creating alternative logistics routes to redirect trade flows.
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