Snow has come together like a wedge: the dispute over Greenland is hitting the unity of Europe and the United States

The dispute over control of Greenland has created the most serious crisis in the Western camp in the 21st century and is increasing distrust in transatlantic relations, experts interviewed told Izvestia. The European part of NATO wants to take advantage of the situation around Danish autonomy to expand the presence of alliance troops there. This idea echoes the plans of individual members of the bloc to deploy their armed contingents in Ukraine, according to the Federation Council. The issue of control over the island will be discussed at talks in Washington on January 14. Experts do not rule out any development of the situation, including the implementation of a military scenario. Meanwhile, a bill on the "annexation and statehood of Greenland" and granting it the status of a US state has been submitted to the American Congress.

Deepening the split over Greenland

The issue of US claims to Greenland is playing an increasing role in relations between Washington and Europe. This is probably the deepest crisis in NATO in recent decades since the invasion of Iraq by American troops in 2003. The White House said that the United States is counting on the purchase of the island. The Europeans are obviously against it. But, not wanting to worsen relations with the United States, they propose to expand NATO's armed presence in Greenland.

Photo: Global Look Press/Thomas Trutschel

According to Bloomberg, in order to control the situation in the region, Germany proposed to NATO to form the Arctic Guardian mission. A group of European countries led by Germany and the United Kingdom is also discussing the possibility of a military presence in Greenland to prevent it from joining the United States, the newspaper notes. However, the head of the British Ministry of Defense denies information about the possibility of troop transfer.

The idea of an alliance to militarize the island strongly echoes those issues that have recently been discussed by the coalition of the Willing in relation to Ukraine, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Grigory Karasin told Izvestia.

Both yours and ours: the EU is in a panic because of the US president's desire to get Greenland

Brussels is striving to maintain good relations with Washington and not offend Copenhagen.

— The European members of NATO are trying to create all the demagoguery in order to compare the situation in Ukraine and Greenland. They have already started talking about the presence of separate military units in Greenland for construction, for the creation of some kind of military infrastructure," the senator said. — They are trying to convince us that such a focal presence of NATO units in various regions of the world will strengthen stability. But this is an utter absurdity, a harmful concept that cannot be accepted," the politician said.

Photo: REUTERS

Earlier, the leaders of France, Great Britain, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and Denmark issued a joint statement emphasizing that "Greenland belongs to its people" and that only they can resolve issues related to Denmark and Greenland. They also put forward a proposal according to which the security of the Arctic should be ensured collectively by all NATO members, including the United States.

The American side has repeatedly said that Greenland is allegedly in danger due to the fact that large groups of Russian and Chinese surface and underwater vessels are concentrated around it. The ground forces of France and Great Britain may head to Greenland to indicate the presence of Europeans on the island, military expert Igor Nikulin believes. The Europeans hope that Trump will not openly use force.

"All their threats are purely demonstrative and designed for a media effect," the expert told Izvestia, noting that the actions of the Europeans would not stop Trump if he wanted to take over the island.

Meanwhile, on the evening of January 12, it became known that Republican Congressman Randy Fine introduced a bill "on the annexation and statehood of Greenland" and granting it the status of a US state. The project involves authorizing Donald Trump to take all necessary actions to annex or acquire Greenland as a US territory.

Greenland's security issue

Meanwhile, Washington is ready to engage in dialogue with European partners on Greenland. This issue should be the topic of a meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Denmark and Greenland and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington on January 14, media reported. The parties may discuss the idea of the Europeans to jointly strengthen the island with Washington within the framework of NATO. Earlier, Donald Trump noted that Greenland's security is literally ensured by "two dog sleds."

Photo: REUTERS/Ida Marie Odgaard

At the same time, the government of Greenland stated that the island, as part of the Commonwealth (Denmark, Greenland, and the Faroe Islands), is a member of NATO, and therefore Greenland's defense is carried out under the auspices of the alliance.

However, Trump's words about the island's poor defense are not far from the truth. If we talk about northeast Greenland, then the basis of the Danish presence there is precisely the Sirius dog sled patrol, Nikita Belukhin, a junior researcher at the Department of European Political Studies at the IMEMO RAS, said in a conversation with Izvestia. But it is important to understand that his task is not to repel an invasion, but to monitor, intelligence, and "maintain sovereignty."

Ice show: The United States is talking about joining Greenland again

The White House's foreign policy is increasingly dependent on the domestic agenda

— The United States and NATO are interested in increasing the means of reconnaissance, surveillance, and monitoring of air, sea, and outer space around Greenland. Figuratively speaking, they would like to turn the Arctic into a transparent aquarium, where the actions of units and especially submarines of potential opponents could be quickly tracked," he said.

Photo: REUTERS/Guglielmo Mangiapane

The main paradox is that the current 1951 Greenland Defense Treaty, both in the preamble and directly in the articles, contains clear references to NATO's activities, but at the same time, not only Greenland, but the Arctic in general, appears rather sparingly in the alliance's collective defense planning, Belukhin added.

The idea of the Europeans to strengthen Greenland jointly with the United States is more of a counterproposal to Trump's rhetoric, which Washington is unlikely to accept, says Dmitry Novikov, head of the HSE Laboratory of Political Geography and Modern Geopolitics. The Europeans only pretend to believe in Trump's concern for Greenland's security.

— I think that Trump may be satisfied with the deployment of American troops in Greenland under the auspices of NATO. That is, the Americans control the island alone, but nominally it seems to be a common structure and a common political framework. I don't think Trump wants to annex Greenland," he said.

Photo: Global Look Press/snapshot-photography/B.Shamlo vi

According to Novikov, the form of American control over the island may be different. The best option for Washington would be the complete independence of Greenland, in which the United States would simply become the main conductor of the island's security.

The possibility of a power scenario

However, Washington is considering other options for taking over the island, from buying territory to using force. The media wrote about the risk of Washington's military intervention a year ago, when Trump had just returned to the White House. Now, against the background of the success of the United States in Venezuela, this option has again entered the agenda of the American president's entourage, the Daily Mail reports.

According to the publication, Trump allegedly instructed the special operations command to develop a plan for a possible invasion of the island. One of the clear proponents of a forceful solution to the issue is Homeland Security Adviser Stephen Miller. At the same time, the initiative is being resisted by the top military leadership of the United States.

Photo: TASS/Zuma\TASS

The publication, citing diplomats, also reports that a military scenario could lead to the "destruction of the alliance from within," which is probably part of Trump's plans. Since Congress will not allow the head of the White House to withdraw the United States from NATO, Washington may escalate militarily, which will force the Europeans themselves to abandon the alliance.

Anyway, the problems in the alliance are no longer just being talked about in the press. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stressed that an act of aggression against the island would lead to the "collapse of NATO." The head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, stated that discussions had already taken place in the European Union on what the European reaction might look like if the American "threat to acquire Greenland" turned out to be real. Later, she said that the partnership with the United States "is in a difficult phase."

Novikov is confident that the Greenland issue undermines transatlantic relations and creates a high degree of distrust between Europe and the United States. The Europeans are starting to think seriously about the need to build their security without relying on American support, he concluded.