Sanctions in focus: why Russian oil production has decreased
Russia radically reduced oil production in December 2025. At least, this is the conclusion reached by Bloomberg. For the first time in a long time, production was significantly below the OPEC+ quota. Nevertheless, there is no official data yet, and the decline, even if it occurred, could be the result of statistical distortions and one-time factors. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Minus 180 thousand
According to Bloomberg, the drop in production in December turned out to be the largest in the last year and a half. Excluding gas condensate, Russia produced 9.326 million barrels per day. For comparison, the quota in December was 9.574 million barrels per day. Thus, oil production decreased by 180 thousand barrels by November, and the difference between the allowable and actual production volume, according to the agency, was 200 thousand barrels.
This is quite a serious indicator. In the past, Russia usually exceeded its quota. For example, in 2023, the quota was exceeded by 300 thousand barrels per day in some months. But after a sharp reduction in OPEC+ quotas in the first half of 2024, Russia followed the organization's course very firmly — until the fall of 2025, the difference between the quota and actual production was minimal, despite changes in the cartel's policy.
Sanctions could significantly shake the situation. The largest companies themselves supplied a considerable part of their own oil abroad. Due to the potential decrease in their activity in the market, importers of Russian raw materials would have to resort more often to the help of the so-called shadow fleet (in fact, this is a euphemism for ships that do not use the services of large insurers, which is quite legitimate). According to the agency, the sanctions led to a kind of "congestion" when about 185 million barrels — almost 20 days of daily production — ended up on various ships in international waters, while potential buyers were looking for ways to circumvent the sanctions in order to accept the cargo.
Refineries have slowed down demand
At the same time, Bloomberg notes that Russia had its own reasons to reduce production. For example, for various reasons, the activity of oil refineries has decreased somewhat. Accordingly, the demand for oil last month was lower than it could have been. In addition, there is no data on condensate (about one million barrels of oil equivalent per day), which can significantly compensate for the shortage of oil.
Russian experts believe that it is premature to link Bloomberg's data with the effect of sanctions. According to Tamara Safonova, associate professor at the Institute of Economics, Mathematics and Information Technology of the Presidential Academy, according to OPEC data, oil production in Russia in November 2025 amounted to 9.367 million barrels per day, with a quota of 9.532 million barrels per day in November. Russia's quota under the OPEC+ deal was 9.574 million barrels per day in December 2025 and will not change in January –March 2026, as OPEC chose not to change its strategy in a difficult geopolitical situation, maintaining its position on suspending production growth.
— At the same time, in December 2025, there was a significant increase in Urals grade oil exports from the Russian ports of Novorossiysk, Primorsk and Ust-Luga. The OPEC report, which will provide data on quota performance in December 2025, is scheduled for publication on January 14, 2026.
As noted by Finam analyst Nikolai Dudchenko, already in November 2025, Russia's production was below the quota.
— It would be too early to talk about a steady downward trend in oil production in Russia. For example, in the first and second quarters of 2025, Russia produced an average of less than 9 million barrels. Thus, in the fourth quarter of 2025, if we trust the Bloomberg figures, the average production for 2025 was the maximum," he added.
The main problem is prices
Thus, Russia continues to increase production, despite very unfavorable conditions. Note that the average oil price in December 2025 was $63 per barrel, and the Urals brand, which accounts for most of Russia's exports, cost, according to Argus estimates, only $39.17 per barrel (however, this estimate is also quite approximate). To all this, we also add the relatively high ruble exchange rate, which hits the exporters' pockets hard, reducing the already small margin.
There are other reasons for a possible decline in production. Firstly, Russia is now publishing data in barrels, whereas before 2024 it was doing so in tons. But barrel to barrel is different, and it all depends on which coefficient to use for conversion. In the domestic version, it is 7.18 barrels per ton, while foreigners can calculate it as 7.33 barrels per ton. At the same time, the properties of the produced and supplied oil may differ from month to month, so the differences may be very significant in different time periods, amounting to many tens or even more than 100 thousand barrels per day.
Thus, it is difficult to talk about the success of anti-Russian sanctions. At first glance, the drop (if Bloomberg's data is correct) looks quite significant. But in relation to the indicators of 2025, on average, Russia's production turns out to be quite small in December. Well, there were more than enough reasons for the decline in December, besides sanctions. And no one has canceled the statistical distortions — given the current secrecy of the data, estimates may differ by a few percent, which gives the desired hundreds of thousands of barrels per day.
More worrisome in this situation is the still large discount between Brent and Urals, coupled with low oil prices on the world market in principle. If we adjust the price of oil to the purchasing power of the dollar, in the last 20 years, black gold has been cheaper only during the COVID pandemic, as well as at the peak of the price wars in late 2015 and early 2016. Currently, the global economy is doing relatively well, and there is agreement among the largest oil producers on production volumes. Still, oil is cheap, and especially for Russia. This situation can be unpleasant both for companies whose profits are "eaten up" by a combination of low prices and a high ruble, and for the national budget. As for sanctions, practice shows that there will always be workarounds, even if not immediately.
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