Stop plan: why OPEC+ decided to keep a pause in increasing oil production
The decision of representatives of eight OPEC+ countries to maintain a pause in increasing oil production in the first quarter of this year did not come as a surprise to industry experts. Even despite the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the world in general and in Venezuela in particular, analysts do not expect significant adjustments in global oil prices and radical changes in the cartel's policy. The production levels of the alliance members in the first three months of 2026 will correspond to the quotas in effect in December. What awaits the oil market in the near future is in the Izvestia article.
What have OPEC+ members decided?
On January 4, the ministers of the OPEC+ states participating in voluntary restrictions on oil production discussed the prospects for the global market. Eight member countries of the alliance decided to maintain a pause in the build—up in the first quarter of this year. Their production levels in the next three months will correspond to the quotas that were in effect in December.
"The eight participating countries confirmed their decision to suspend the phased increase in production in February and March 2026 due to seasonal factors," the cartel said in a statement.
OPEC noted that 1.65 million barrels per day can be returned partially or completely, depending on changing market conditions and gradually.
"The countries will continue to closely monitor and evaluate market conditions, and in their ongoing efforts to maintain market stability, they have reaffirmed the importance of taking a precautionary approach and maintaining full flexibility to continue suspending or canceling additional voluntary production adjustments, including previously made voluntary adjustments for the announced 2.2 million barrels per day in November 2023," the statement said. the cartel following the meeting.
Thus, Russia's quota for oil production in February and March 2026 will amount to 9.574 million barrels per day, Saudi Arabia — 10.103 million, Iraq — 4.273 million, the United Arab Emirates — 3.411 million, Kuwait — 2.580 million, Kazakhstan — 1.569 million, Algeria — 971 thousand, Oman — 811 thousand barrels per day without vat. accounting for compensation for overproduction of oil, which is similar to the level of December 2025 and January 2026.
Fundamentally, from the point of view of the balance of supply and demand, the prerequisites have not changed, so the organization has taken a logical position to maintain its previously stated position, explained Dmitry Kasatkin, Managing Partner of Kasatkin Consulting.
Overall, eight countries reaffirmed their collective commitment to the declaration of cooperation, including additional voluntary production adjustments to be overseen by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC). They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduction volume from January 2024.
OPEC+ member states will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, compliance, and compensation. The next one will take place on February 1st.
How did the situation in Venezuela affect OPEC's decision+
The meeting of the oil alliance participants took place against the backdrop of escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela. On the eve of the meeting, the United States attacked the Bolivarian Republic, an OPEC member that is not involved in the OPEC+ deal. On the night of January 3, the Americans attacked military bases, an oil refinery, the parliament building, and even the mausoleum of former President Hugo Chavez. The military managed to capture and take President Nicolas Maduro and his wife out of the country.
US President Donald Trump has accused the Venezuelan government of conspiring to commit drug terrorism, import cocaine, and store explosive devices and weapons. According to NBC News, Nicolas Maduro may appear in court in New York on January 5.
Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world — 303 billion barrels. It is followed by Saudi Arabia (267 billion), the United States is in the penultimate place in the top ten oil countries (74 billion). Russia is one line higher, with 80 billion barrels.
In addition, a foreign policy conflict broke out between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, one of the key members of OPEC and OPEC+, against the background of the situation in Yemen. On the morning of December 30, the Kingdom attacked the port of Mukalla in Yemen, the target of which, according to Riyadh, were two ships arriving from Fujairah (UAE), allegedly delivering weapons to the separatists from the Southern Transitional Council (UPC). The Saudi authorities expressed disappointment that, according to their version, the Emirates convinced the UPS forces to conduct military operations in Yemen near the southern borders of the kingdom. In the UAE, accusations of attempts to escalate the conflict in Yemen were rejected.
What awaits the oil market
On the eve of the events described, the price of a barrel of Brent North Sea oil was $60.76. According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, an attack on Venezuela is unlikely to lead to significant price changes.
— Of course, we will see the dynamics of oil prices as a reaction to any geopolitical conflict. However, you should not expect them to change significantly. Due to the US sanctions pressure, the country's oil production in 2025 was no more than 1 million barrels per day. and Venezuela exported about half of this volume. This is a very small amount of supply. Even if American companies join the development, they will not be able to quickly increase production. Therefore, it is not worth waiting for a significant impact of Venezuelan oil on world markets this year," the expert noted.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand was forecast at 103.8 million barrels per day in 2025. The largest producers remain the United States with production of more than 13 million barrels, Saudi Arabia and Russia with production of more than 10 million barrels per day.
Dmitry Kasatkin also believes that the events in Venezuela can affect the market only emotionally, but in terms of supplies to global markets and balance, "there is no impact from the situation and is not expected." OPEC chose not to change its strategy in the face of a difficult geopolitical situation, Tamara Safonova, Director General of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector (NAANS-Media), believes.
"Obviously, it will take time to assess the impact of events in Venezuela on global supplies, while oil production under the control of American companies is unlikely to lead to its rapid growth," she said.
At the same time, changes may be made to the directions of Venezuela's oil cargo flows in accordance with the US trade policy, the expert concluded.
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