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- Barrels of growth: in 2026, experts expect an increase in oil production and exports of the Russian Federation
Barrels of growth: in 2026, experts expect an increase in oil production and exports of the Russian Federation
The coming year 2026 will not be a breakthrough and turning point for the global oil and gas market, analysts believe. Conservative forecasts are still the basis for planning all market players. Oil prices are more likely to remain in the range of $60-70 per barrel of North Sea Brent, despite the events in Venezuela. At the same time, industry experts expect a reduction in sanctions discounts for Russian oil, ensuring the efficiency of supply chains, stabilizing the production of petroleum products and increasing oil production. The domestic oil and gas industry will continue to develop despite severe economic and geopolitical constraints.
What will be the policy of OPEC+
Geopolitics has had a major impact on the global oil and gas market in 2025. Supply and demand have given way to sanctions, tariff wars, bans and restrictions. US President Donald Trump, who took office at the end of January, declared a state of emergency in the American energy sector and signed a number of decrees aimed at supporting oil and gas production, and announced the need to double energy production. In his speeches, Trump expressed the new energy policy in one phrase — "Storms, baby, storms!" (Drill, baby, drill!). He expects that the plan will allow the United States to "become a rich state again," "lower prices for almost all goods and services," and achieve the status of a "manufacturing superpower" and "capital of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies."
If, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy, the average oil production in the country in 2024 was 13.21 million barrels per day, then in 2025 this figure increased to 13.61 million barrels.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, it was the growth of US production and exports that forced the participants in the OPEC+ deal to reconsider their oil production policy. This year, the cartel has increased the production of black gold.
"In the new year, the alliance will continue its efforts to regain market share," she said.
Tamara Safonova, Director General of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector (NAANS-Media), agrees with her colleague.
— In 2026, the key challenge for the global oil and gas industry will be the transition of the global market to a deficit state against the background of a reduction in spare production capacity in the world and a decrease in investment in traditional energy. OPEC+ will need to continue to attract significant efforts from participating countries to balance the market in order to maintain world prices and retain market share," she notes.
In addition, in her opinion, in 2026, it is possible to begin reforming the global pricing system, which is currently not balanced and does not reflect the interests of exporting countries, with the dominance of Middle Eastern indices in the future during OPEC+ trade operations.
As Izvestia wrote, at the OPEC+ meeting in late November, representatives of eight countries decided to maintain their oil production policy until the end of 2025 — in December they planned to increase production by a total of 137 thousand barrels per day.
What will happen to oil prices
Higher-than-expected oil production volumes by OPEC+ countries may exacerbate the excess of oil on the market and put additional downward pressure on energy prices, World Bank economists predict.
According to his forecasts, the price of Brent crude oil will decrease from $68 per barrel in 2025 to $60 in 2026. This will be the lowest figure in the last five years. If the World Bank predicted a 12% decrease in energy prices in 2025, they may fall by another 10% in 2026.
Indermit Gill, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics at the World Bank Group, notes that falling energy prices will lead to lower global consumer price inflation.
The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation lowered the forecast for the price of Brent crude oil in 2026-2027 from $ 72 to $ 70 per barrel, said the head of the ministry Maxim Reshetnikov, presenting the forecast to the Cabinet in the fall of 2025.
According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Moscow holds the price of Brent oil at $69-70 per barrel as a benchmark for the coming years.
Olga Orlova, head of the Industry department at the Institute of Oil and Gas Technologies, recalls that the average oil price in 2025 decreased by just over 20%.
— If in January last year a barrel of North Sea Brent was estimated at $76.7, then in December it was already worth only $61.2. In 2026, as in 2025, of course, much will depend on geopolitics, so today it is worth sticking to conservative forecasts. World oil prices will not exceed $70 per barrel, the analyst believes.
Dmitry Kasatkin, Managing Partner of Kasatkin Consulting, also believes that now it is possible to talk about expectations for 2026 for the global and Russian oil and gas industries only with a lot of reservations.
— Uncertainty remains and conservative forecasts are still the basis for planning for all market players. If we turn to the global balance of supply and demand, there is no reason to expect sharp fluctuations over the next year: despite some positive signals from key Asian economies, as well as a more cautious OPEC+ policy, oil prices are likely to remain in the same range as this year, at $ 60-70 per barrel of Brent," the expert said.
According to Tamara Safonova of NAANS Media, "despite peaceful efforts, in 2026 the Middle East will remain a trigger for price responses to provoked incidents in the region."
Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult, believes that the events in Venezuela are also unlikely to lead to significant changes in world oil prices.
— Due to the US sanctions pressure, the country's oil production in 2025 was no more than a million barrels per day, and Venezuela exported about half of this volume. This is a very small amount of supply. Even if American companies join the development, they will not be able to quickly increase production. Therefore, it is not worth waiting for a significant impact of Venezuelan oil on world markets this year," the expert notes.
At the same time, Kosareva recalled that Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world — 303 billion barrels. Saudi Arabia is next with 267 billion, but the United States is in the penultimate place in the top ten oil countries with 74 billion. Russia is ahead of the United States by one line with 80 billion barrels.
Prospects of Russian oil and gas in 2026
The Russian oil and gas industry continues to develop despite severe economic and geopolitical constraints, Dmitry Kasatkin believes. In his opinion, 2026 is expected to be a difficult year, just like 2025, but still a number of factors should prevent a greater slowdown.
— We expect the rate to continue to decrease to 12% by the end of next year, as well as a weakening of the ruble to 90 rubles per dollar by the middle of the year. Mining investments will continue to grow, but still remain within the inflation range. And the mechanisms proposed by the government in the fuel market will help avoid the shocks that we witnessed at the end of last summer. The first quarter will be difficult for the budget, but closer to the second, oil and gas revenues will return to normal values," the source told Izvestia.
According to the forecast of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, oil production in Russia in 2026 will grow by 2%, to 525 million tons.
"We have planned an increase of about 2% in accordance with the forecast of socio-economic development, which is about 525 million tons,— he said in an interview with Rossiya 24 TV channel in late December.
According to Tamara Safonova, the key objectives of Russian companies in the oil and gas sector in 2026 will be to generate positive cash flows, reduce contractual sanctions discounts, ensure the efficiency of supply chains and stabilize the production of petroleum products.
"To solve this problem, it is possible to apply a government strategy aimed at eliminating speculation of sanctions pressure in order to achieve an effective cost of Russian hydrocarbons without using discriminatory discounts using the GME Middle East stock index," she believes.
According to her, the main development projects in the oil and gas industry include the expansion of oil and gas pipeline infrastructure, production projects that increase gas supplies to the Gazprom system, as well as a gas processing project.
Thus, in 2026, it is planned to expand export capacities for transporting oil through the Transneft system to seaports, expand the capacity of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, and launch the first stage of the gas processing complex in Ust-Luga.
Dmitry Kasatkin added that, despite continued sanctions pressure, Urals discounts will return to their usual values of about $ 10 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026.
According to Argus, after the introduction of US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil in October 2025, discounts on Russian oil reached about $20 per barrel.
"In our expectations, we have already abandoned the scenario of gradual lifting of restrictions, so the key is the speed of implementation of the scenario in which our partners from friendly and neutral countries will be less dependent on the decisions of Western governments and will rely more on pragmatism and national interests," said Dmitry Kasatkin.
According to him, in 2026, Russia will have to accumulate potential and consolidate efforts in order to return to the trajectory of sustainable growth in 2027.
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