The US operation in Venezuela is destabilizing the region. And here's why

After the United States attacked Venezuela, the risks of political instability in the region increased. It will result in a major split between Latin American states, which will affect both the economy and migration flows. What will be the future of Caracas and the whole of Latin America — in the material of Izvestia.

Political destabilization

• After the strike on Venezuela, Washington announced that the United States would actually govern the country until a certain transfer of power. How this will be implemented, given that Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who is known as an associate of captured leader Nicolas Maduro, is currently in power in Venezuela, is unclear. The American side justified these actions with the right to dominate the Western Hemisphere, referring to the Monroe doctrine. What is happening now is a return to the old policy of American interference in Latin American affairs. Also, the US actions in Venezuela are purely pragmatic. Washington is seeking control over oil flows. Maduro's capture is a show of force for undesirable elites, after which the United States relies on their willingness to cooperate.

• The United States has repeatedly participated in overthrowing governments in Latin America. In Guatemala, in 1954, the CIA supported a coup against democratically elected President Jacobo Arbenz, which led to the establishment of a military junta. The next victim was Brazil, where in 1964 Washington supported a military coup that overthrew President Juan Goulart and established a military dictatorship. In 1973, the United States supported the coup against Chilean President Salvador Allende, after which Augusto Pinochet seized power. In Argentina in 1976, the United States indirectly supported the coup against President Isabel Perón.

• Now the military intervention has dramatically increased the sense of vulnerability of the States of the region. On the continent, the attack was perceived as a signal that any Latin American country with leadership inconvenient for Washington could be next. This increases fear among governments, especially those who pursue independent or critical policies towards the United States. At the same time, the positions of opposition forces in Latin America are also being undermined. After all, local authorities can take advantage of the opportunity and start accusing all their opponents of working for Washington.

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The split of the continent

• The capture of President Maduro only revealed the already existing anti-American positions of the countries of the Bolivarian Alliance, which includes Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. At the same time, the economic consequences for regional associations are likely to be minimal.

• Against the background of the crisis in Venezuela, many Latin American countries, in particular Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay and Chile, have already criticized any forceful steps taken without collective consent. They stressed that a way out of the current situation is possible only through diplomatic instruments, including political consultations and the negotiation process.

Colombia and Cuba have particular concerns about their security. Previously, the United States has repeatedly hinted that the political regimes in these countries do not meet the standards of democracy. However, it is too early to talk about a possible invasion. Argentina stands apart, which actively supports the US actions in Venezuela. Other countries prefer to take a wait-and-see attitude in order to maintain beneficial bilateral relations with Washington.

• The history of Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria shows that the forceful removal of leaders without a local transition plan leads to instability, humanitarian crises, and the regional spread of conflicts (we discussed more about major U.S. military operations here). Long-term recovery requires reforms and transparency, which is unlikely in the case of Venezuela, given the strategic interests of external players.

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Ousting China

• The main goal of the United States in the region is considered by many to be hindering the presence of China. The blockade of Venezuelan ports primarily strikes at the interests of China, which has purchased more than half of Venezuela's exported crude oil and invested in the country's infrastructure. One of the conditions that Trump imposed on the new Caracas administration was the severance of ties with China, Russia, Iran and Cuba. China has stated that it intends to defend its rights in Venezuela.

Washington believes that China is aggressively advancing on the continent. China's trade with Latin American countries has grown more than 40-fold over the past 25 years: in 14 of the 33 Latin American countries, China's economic influence prevails over the United States. Thanks to investments, China has gained access to resources and is present in all strategically important industries, from oil and rare earth mining to transport and energy.

• The United States fears that China will not limit itself to economic cooperation and may deploy a military base on this territory. The United States sees the deep-water port of Chankai in Peru as a possible threat, launched at the end of 2024 and designed for faster cargo delivery to China: berths with a depth of 17.8 m are suitable for both large container ships and naval vessels. And the Chinese space surveillance center in Patagonia in Argentina is suspected of being used to track US military satellites.

Migration and social crisis

• The past migration flow from Venezuela was caused by the economic and political collapse. Since 2017, millions have left the country, including a significant number of young people, due to falling oil prices and hyperinflation. US sanctions, especially those imposed in 2019 against the oil sector, have worsened the economic crisis, depriving the state of its main foreign exchange earnings. This has accelerated the decline in production, the rise of hyperinflation and the shortage of essential goods, which has become a key factor in mass migration from Venezuela.

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• Since 2013, more than 7.7 million Venezuelans have already left the country, most of them in Latin America, especially in Colombia and Peru. According to the data for 2024, 34.1 million people live in the country itself.

• The US attack may provoke an even greater flow of emigration from Venezuela. According to research by the Niskanen Center, a short—term conflict can cause between 1.7 million and 3 million people to flee, and a protracted war can cause more than 4 million, which will put pressure on neighboring states such as Colombia and Brazil.

Uncertain economic prospects

• Donald Trump has announced that the United States will take control of Venezuela's vast oil reserves and attract American companies to invest in rebuilding the destroyed oil infrastructure. Venezuela has 303 billion barrels of oil. This is about a fifth of the world's reserves. According to Trump, for now, the United States will actually manage the country's oil industry. Earlier, the American Institute of Fuels published a report on the decline in crude oil production in the country.

• Despite the huge reserves, Venezuela's real production is extremely low. It reaches about 1 million barrels per day, which is less than 1% of global production. This is due to sanctions and outdated infrastructure that has not been updated for decades. Venezuela's pipelines have not been updated for 50 years, and the cost of upgrading infrastructure to return to peak production levels will be $58 billion.

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• In the short term, the impact of the American operation could reduce Venezuelan oil exports due to economic uncertainty for producing companies. It is still unclear whether American companies will be able to return to Venezuela, but in this case, some of the fields will go to Washington. It will take time to work on them, which will lead to a short-term decrease in production in the country. Since the current level of oil production in the country is low, the loss in the market will be offset by supplies from other countries, and the short-term impact on world prices will be small.

• The revival of the Venezuelan oil industry creates opportunities for American companies, and unless OPEC intervenes, it will increase supplies to the global market. But success depends on rebuilding the infrastructure and long-term management strategies. For now, the country remains devastated after years of economic crisis, and U.S. intervention is making Venezuela's future even more uncertain.

• The economic logic of the military operation is based on the gradual reorientation of the Venezuelan oil industry towards the United States. Oil for Caracas will become difficult to sell, with the exception of the American direction. Under these conditions, Chevron and other American companies are becoming the main source of investment in the country. Production growth is possible, but it will be slow, expensive and stretched over years, so a catastrophic impact on the global oil market is not expected.

When writing the material, Izvestia talked and took into account the opinions of:

• Joseph Diskin, an economist and Professor at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics;
• analyst, journalist, and author of the Crimson Digest channel Ivan Danilov.