Trial is coming: Maduro could face life in prison in New York
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro will appear in court in New York on January 5 on charges of drug terrorism and cocaine smuggling. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that he could face from decades in prison to life in prison. Maduro's detention during the US military operation caused an international outcry, led to an emergency convocation of the UN Security Council and raised the question of the future of power in Caracas, where interim control passed to Vice President Delcy Rodriguez. Amid disputes about the legality of Washington's actions and uncertainty surrounding a possible transition period, analysts do not rule out that the United States and Venezuela will be able to find compromise figures to stabilize the situation in the country.
Maduro will appear in court in New York.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Celia Flores will appear in an American court for the first time in New York on Monday. According to CNN and NBC News, they were taken to a detention center in Brooklyn.
The Venezuelan leader has been charged with conspiracy to commit drug terrorism, import cocaine, illegal possession of machine guns and explosive devices, as well as conspiracy to possess these weapons against the United States. His wife, Celia Flores, is charged with similar crimes. U.S. Attorney General Pamela Bondi said the couple "will soon face the full wrath of American justice on American soil in an American court."
— If Nicolas Maduro is found guilty on all counts, he will almost certainly face life imprisonment. Similar charges have already been brought against Maduro in the Manhattan federal court back in 2020, during the first presidential term of Donald Trump, American political analyst Peter Kuznik told Izvestia.
According to the expert, the totality of the charges involves several life sentences and a mandatory minimum sentence of 50-60 years, which, given Maduro's age, is actually equivalent to life imprisonment. The most serious charge — participation in a conspiracy to commit drug terrorism — provides for a minimum of 20 years and a maximum of life imprisonment, conspiracy to import cocaine — from 10 years to life, and weapons articles can entail a mandatory minimum of 20-30 years with the same maximum limit.
At the same time, Peter Kuznik stressed that despite the high probability of a conviction on a number of counts, the American authorities will have to face complex and legally sensitive issues when proving a case in court.
Said Khan, a professor at Wayne University in Detroit, told Izvestia that according to Article 841 of the U.S. Code of Laws, conspiracy to distribute and possess cocaine in large quantities carries a penalty of 10 years to life in prison with a possible fine of up to $10 million.
American commentators compare the legal prospects of the Maduro case in the United States with the precedent of the end of the Cold War — the capture of Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega. In December 1989, President George H. W. Bush sent troops to Panama to arrest him on federal drug trafficking charges. As in the current case, the operation was carried out without congressional approval, and Noriega himself was forcibly brought to the United States and tried.
The American courts then rejected the arguments about the violation of international law and the sovereignty of Panama, referring to the precedent of Ker v. Illinois, according to which even a violent abduction does not deprive the court of jurisdiction over the defendant, who is physically in the courtroom.
Noriega was overthrown on December 24, 1989, and on January 4, 1990, he voluntarily surrendered to American troops after a 10-day blockade of the papal nuncio's residence, where he was hiding. He was taken to Miami, where in 1992 he was sentenced to 40 years in prison for drug trafficking and extortion; the term was later reduced to 30 years. At the end of the trial, the ex-leader of Panama was granted the status of a prisoner of war, which allowed him to serve his sentence in more comfortable conditions and excluded extradition to third countries.
Jeremy Kuzmarov, editor-in-chief of Covert Action magazine, believes that the American authorities will seek a life sentence for Nicolas Maduro, as they intend to set an example of an attitude towards a politician who defied the United States.
— American courts have previously handed down life sentences to heads of state, in particular former Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega and former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez (after his resignation in 2024, he was extradited to the United States, where he was sentenced to 45 years in prison. — Ed.) — on charges related to drug trafficking, — Jeremy Kuzmarov told Izvestia.
Who will lead the country after Maduro
The capture of Maduro and Flores was the result of a large-scale US operation announced by Donald Trump on January 3. According to media reports, during it, explosions occurred in Caracas, and fighters of the elite Delta Force unit took the Venezuelan leader out of the country. The New York Times, citing sources, reported at least 80 dead, including military and civilians.
In the United States, the operation caused a stir: some congressmen called the administration's actions illegal, while the White House assured that Maduro would stand trial. The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry protested and requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council, which was scheduled for January 5. The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed concern over the forcible removal of the President of the Republic and his wife, calling for their release and preventing further escalation.
At the same time, there is no reason to expect breakthrough solutions from an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council: the discussion, according to Timur Almukov, an expert on Latin America, will be limited to demonstrative condemnations and will not affect the US position. Even a possible appeal by Caracas to the International Court of Justice, as the expert told Izvestia, does not pose real risks for Washington, since the court does not have enforcement mechanisms, and the American side traditionally gives priority to national legislation.
— In the near future, the country will be led by Vice President Delcy Rodriguez. She has already been recognized in Brazil as the interim head of state. The United States does not seem to object to her candidacy for a certain period, and Trump himself dismissed the possibility of the radical opposition coming to power in the person of Maria Corina Machado," Timur Almukov noted.
The expert recalled that according to the law, the Venezuelan authorities must hold elections, but it is not yet clear whether they will take place and who will be able to participate in them. At the same time, Delcy Rodriguez's situation, in his opinion, is extremely vulnerable: the White House expects that she will act in line with the plans being developed in the United States, otherwise the United States does not exclude the threat of repeated intervention.
Donald Trump, speaking at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, acknowledged that the United States intends to "govern the country until a safe, proper and balanced transition becomes possible." According to him, the capture of Maduro is not the end of the process, but only the beginning, and Washington is ready to assume leadership during the transition period. At the same time, Trump confirmed the presence of the US military on Venezuelan soil, noting that they are not enough to maintain law and order, which increased uncertainty about further steps.
As Alexander Stepanov, a military expert at the RANEPA Institute of Law and National Security and a senior researcher at the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in an interview with Izvestia, Venezuelan society is deeply polarized, while the opposition receives regular and systematic support from outside. According to him, a potential candidate to replace the current head of state, Maria Corina Machado, was prepared in advance in the country.
At the same time, the expert did not rule out that within the framework of the negotiation process between representatives of the Caracas administration, who retain influence, and Washington, compromise figures may be worked out that can satisfy the internal demand and stabilize the situation.
The US presidential administration, according to The Washington Post, may consider appointing a special envoy for Venezuela to help Secretary of State Marco Rubio "manage" the country after the abduction of Maduro by American special forces.
By the way, Rubio, after the capture of the head of the republic, said that the United States did not need Venezuelan oil, but they would not allow China, Russia or Iran to control it. He also stressed that the United States expects the expulsion of representatives of Iran and the Hezbollah movement from the country, and Venezuelan oil tankers and boats allegedly used to transport drugs will continue to detain and attack.
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