The abyss of captivity: how and why the United States captured the president of Venezuela

The Venezuelan opposition will try to seize power in the country amid a governance crisis, analysts interviewed by Izvestia said. However, the scenario of a full-scale US ground invasion of the republic remains unlikely. US special forces had previously forcibly removed President Nicolas Maduro and his wife from Venezuela for trial, US President Donald Trump said. Washington has also launched missile strikes against at least 11 targets in the country. The majority of the region's states, Russia, as well as some NATO members condemned the unprecedented US aggression. Its consequence may be a new humanitarian crisis and military confrontation in a previously relatively peaceful region. Experts also predict an increase in oil prices to $ 70-80 per barrel.

The main thing about the situation in Venezuela

The night of January 2 to 3 divided the lives of Venezuelans into before and after. At about 1:50 a.m. local time, several explosions occurred in the capital, Caracas. A number of districts of the city were immediately left without electricity, columns of smoke appeared in the sky. The La Carlota area, where the headquarters of the Venezuelan Ministry of Defense and the airport are located, was hit.

"Like many of you, my family woke up to the sounds of strong explosions all over Caracas. <...> There is a lot of uncertainty among people, because after these rumblings throughout the city, no one understood exactly what was happening," Venezuelan journalist and writer Endrina Yepes said on social media.

However, it was not only military buildings that were attacked. According to Colombian President Gustavo Petro, rocket attacks were carried out on 11 targets, including the Venezuelan parliament building. He also stated that civilians were injured. The former military museum, now the mausoleum of the late Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez in Cuartel de La Montagna, was allegedly hit.

The fact that the head of a neighboring country reported on the events in Venezuela made it clear that the authorities of the Bolivarian Republic itself had lost control of the situation. The only reaction in the first hours of the conflict was a written statement by the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry, in which Washington was blamed for the aggression, and a state of emergency was declared in the republic.

"The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela rejects, <..."Condemns before the international community the serious military aggression committed by the current Government of the United States of America against the territory of Venezuela and its population at civilian and military facilities in Caracas, as well as the states of Miranda, Aragua and La Guayra," the statement said.

Despite the Internet outages, footage of traffic jams at the exit from Caracas and pandemonium at gas stations and shops began to appear on social networks. However, complete chaos has been avoided so far: armored vehicles appeared on the streets of the capital, and the military began detaining everyone near strategic facilities.

There are no casualties among the Russians at the moment, the Russian Embassy in Caracas said. The diplomatic mission continues to operate, it has not been affected. There are currently no organized tourist groups from Russia in Venezuela, the press service of the Russian Union of Travel Industry said.

The main events, however, unfolded not on the streets of Caracas, but in the sky above it. Local residents saw American MH-60M "Black Hawk" helicopters flying overhead, which can be used to transport special forces. Moreover, eyewitnesses noticed them flying at extremely low altitude. Other footage showed the AH-1Z Viper firing unguided missiles at targets on the ground with direct fire from a minimum distance.

The United States captured the president of Venezuela

The purpose of the American helicopters became clear about three hours after the start of the operation. Donald Trump posted a post on social media in which he wrote that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife were detained by Americans and taken out of the country.

Later at a press conference, the Republican announced that Maduro and his wife would be taken to New York, at the time of his speech they were on a ship, where they were taken by the US military. Trump also said that he had spoken with the Venezuelan leader a week ago and urged him to voluntarily surrender.

Trump's shocking statement was followed by the admission of Venezuela's executive vice president Delcy Rodriguez that she did not know where the Venezuelan leader was. The location of Rodriguez herself also remains unknown, according to sources, she took refuge in a protected place in Venezuela.

"We demand immediate confirmation that President Nicolas Maduro and Celia Flores are alive," the vice president added by telephone on national television.

According to American media reports, the operation to capture the Venezuelan leader was carried out by Delta Force special forces. Nicolas Maduro and his wife were captured while they were sleeping. It is noteworthy that in 1989, the same squad participated in the capture of Panamanian President Manuel Noriega, who was then sentenced to 30 years in prison in the United States.

There are two main possible reasons for the rapid outcome of the operation to capture Maduro. Firstly, the air defense systems were subjected to electronic suppression and subsequent destruction during the first round of airstrikes, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.

Secondly, it is possible that the operation could have been prepared by bribing the military leaders of Venezuela. It was the human factor that could become decisive for the entire operation," the expert noted.

By the way, earlier the Venezuelan authorities announced the transfer of the S-125-2M Pechora-2M air defense systems to the coastline. These systems were planned to provide protection from the American landing. In addition, Maduro himself said that Venezuela has 5,000 MANPADS in its arsenal to combat aerial targets.

Earlier in Washington, they openly said: Nicolas Maduro will be the target of American operations. In the United States, he is considered the leader of a drug cartel, and back in 2020, the politician was charged with supplying prohibited substances. In August, the reward for Maduro's capture was doubled to $50 million. US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, after the capture of Maduro by the US military, said that he would stand trial for "crimes."

Donald Trump had previously demanded that Maduro resign and accused the Venezuelan authorities of collaborating with drug traffickers. In recent weeks, the United States has been gathering forces in the Caribbean and attacking ships that Washington believes were carrying drugs. According to the United States Southern Command, a "massive armada" is concentrated in the region, the number of which reached 15,000 troops by January 2026, led by the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford.

The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry said that the purpose of this attack is to seize the country's strategic resources, in particular its oil and minerals, and violently undermine the republic's political independence. Recall that almost 20% of the world's proven oil reserves are located in Venezuela — more than 300 billion barrels. The country will also appeal to the UN Security Council and Secretary General Antonio Guterres, "demanding the condemnation and accountability of the American government." The UN Secretary General himself said that "the US actions in Venezuela set a dangerous precedent."

How will the situation in Venezuela develop?

The main issue remains the succession of power in the Bolivarian Republic. According to article 234 of the Venezuelan Constitution, the Vice President replaces the President during the temporary absence. Therefore, from a legal point of view, full power should go to Delcy Rodriguez. As vice president, she oversaw the country's intelligence services, as well as the oil sector.

However, her position may turn out to be nominal, and the real decisions will be made by Diosdado Cabello, the Minister of Internal Affairs and Justice of Venezuela, Egor Lidovsky, Director General of the Hugo Chavez Latin American Center, told Izvestia. He stressed that Cabello was the right-hand man of the long-term Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez.

This may be supported by the fact that it was Cabello who appeared on national television accompanied by officials and armed men. He called on the peaceful citizens of the republic to behave calmly and not despair because of the US strikes, noting that "the country will be able to survive all adversities." In addition, Diosdado Cabello is one of the leaders of the ruling United Socialist Party, and also has close ties with the leadership of Cuba, a close ally of Caracas.

In conditions of a state of emergency and actual hostilities, the military will have even more influence on the situation. Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez denied rumors of his death, addressing the nation. He said that Caracas would not yield to US pressure and called on his fellow citizens to fight.

Venezuela's political unity is critically important against the background of opposition statements. Its leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Maria Corina Machado, declared her readiness to take over the leadership of the country. She added that she would restore order and release political prisoners. Earlier, she called on the United States to intervene in Venezuela's affairs in order to overthrow Nicolas Maduro. Obviously, against the background of the crisis, the opposition will try to take advantage of the chance to come to power.

"With Washington's support, I think a change of power is possible, but it's very difficult to talk now until Maduro's fate is clarified and official statements by the heads of state are made," Alexandra Terzi, INF program coordinator, told Izvestia.

The expert does not expect a complete collapse of Venezuela as a state, but a crisis of governance and the exodus of a certain number of refugees to Colombia is extremely likely.

At the same time, the United States has not yet shown readiness to send ground troops into the country. After Maduro's capture, Washington will not take "further actions" in Venezuela, Senator Mike Lee said after a conversation with Marco Rubio. However, Trump himself said that "the United States is deciding on Venezuela's political prospects and will be involved in this process."

Egor Toropov, an American analyst at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that the US morning attack is an expected expansion of geography from international maritime space to Venezuelan soil of periodic extrajudicial killings of certain groups of people.

"In foreign policy relations, Donald Trump continues to play the role of a diplomatic mediator, but not a political administrator, including with regard to the Bolivarian Republic, which does not meet the American democratic model of government," the political scientist said.

From a foreign policy point of view, representatives of both parties in both houses of Congress are not without exceptions, but they support Donald Trump's actions towards Venezuela. At the same time, on the procedural side of the issue, the Democrats — as well as some Republicans — will take advantage of the lack of necessary notification to Congress. They will once again exert rhetorical pressure on the executive branch of government in the context of the increasing loss by lawmakers of real influence on the course of foreign and even domestic political events, Toropov believes.

"At the same time, the political confrontation between the branches of government does not affect the broad masses of Americans, and significant civil protests inside the country against Trump's foreign policy are not expected — despite all the intensity, significance and inconsistency of the historical moment," predicts the Americanist.

Tigran Meloyan believes that the strike on Venezuela is the first step towards implementing the ideas outlined by the Trump administration in the US National Security Strategy. This is one of the elements of restoring American supremacy in the Western Hemisphere and depriving competitors of the opportunity to control strategically important assets here.

The world's reaction to the events in Venezuela

Meanwhile, the harsh actions of the Trump administration have caused rejection in many countries. Russia condemns the military aggression of the United States against Venezuela and expresses solidarity with the people of the republic and the policy of the authorities to protect the national interests and sovereignty of the country, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. The head of the department, Sergey Lavrov, in a telephone conversation with Delcy Rodriguez, said that Moscow would continue to support the policy of Caracas aimed at protecting the national interests and sovereignty of the country.

"The pretexts used to justify such actions are untenable. Ideologized hostility prevailed over business pragmatism, a willingness to build relationships of trust and predictability," the text says.

Moscow stressed that Latin America should remain a zone of peace, as it declared itself in 2014. And Venezuela should be guaranteed the right to determine its own fate without any destructive, especially military intervention from outside.

Smolenskaya Square called for clarification of the situation with reports of the forcible removal of the Venezuelan president to the United States. The Russian Foreign Ministry made it clear that "such actions, if they actually took place, constitute an unacceptable encroachment on the sovereignty of an independent state, respect for which is a key principle of international law."

Russia's position is conditioned not only by the principles of international law, but also by the close ties between the two states. Just last May, an agreement on strategic partnership between Moscow and Caracas was signed. It contains a clause on "the development of military-technical cooperation in the interests of strengthening defense capabilities," but the agreement does not provide for obligations to provide military assistance.

The US actions were also strongly condemned in Iran, Colombia and Cuba. Brazil and Mexico, where leftist presidents are in power, hold a similar position. On the contrary, Argentine President Javier Miley expressed full support for Washington's actions. According to Alexandra Terzi, the position of the Latin American authorities depends on their political views. The left-wing governments of the region will condemn the United States, while the right-wing ones, such as Bolivia, will express support.

Beijing's position is important for the development of the situation in Venezuela. China is deeply shocked and strongly condemns the US attacks on Venezuela and actions against its president, the country's Foreign Ministry said. According to some reports, just a few hours before the American attack, Nicolas Maduro hosted the Chinese government's special representative for Latin American Affairs, Qiu Xiaoqi, at the presidential palace. It is important to take into account that China remains the main buyer of Venezuelan oil and the country's largest creditor.

Meanwhile, confusion prevails in the camp of the US allies. According to diplomatic sources, Washington did not notify NATO members of its intentions. Therefore, for now, Western capitals are limited to calls to comply with the UN Charter and monitor the situation. Turkey was the only exception — Ankara condemns the actions of the United States, said Cemil Ertem, chief adviser to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Erdogan and Maduro have developed a close relationship of trust. The Turkish leader was one of the few world leaders who openly supported Maduro during the attempt to seize power by Juan Guaido in 2019. In exchange for resources, Turkey supplied essential goods and food to Venezuela. Therefore, Ankara's position is conditioned not only by anti-colonial rhetoric, but also by economic factors.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said: the US military operation in Venezuela is another proof of the destruction of the world order that was established after the Second World War.

So far, the news for the oil market is encouraging: Venezuela's raw materials infrastructure remained intact after the U.S. strikes. However, participants in the global oil market can expect the cessation of shipments from the republic and shipping in the area. In such conditions, oil prices will rise to about $70-80 per barrel, independent industrial expert Leonid Khazanov told Izvestia. In his opinion, an increase in the value of gold and non-ferrous metals in general is also likely.