Peace plan: The United States announced a three-step process of change in Venezuela

The United States wants to gain control over Venezuela's oil resources, but American companies are unlikely to invest in this industry now, experts say. The reason is low oil prices, which may fall even more after the lifting of sanctions against Venezuela. Earlier, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio unveiled a plan for the reconstruction of Venezuela, which implies, among other things, American control over the money earned from the sale of oil. Caracas will purchase only US products from them, Donald Trump said. How the United States plans to control Venezuela's oil industry and what is happening in the country now — in the Izvestia article.

The United States declares control over Venezuelan oil

The United States has identified one of the priorities of its control over Venezuela: instead of new elections, oil supplies. According to The Wall Street Journal, the American authorities are developing a large-scale plan to control the Venezuelan oil industry for years to come.

President Donald Trump said earlier that the interim Venezuelan authorities had agreed to transfer from 30 to 50 million barrels of "high-quality oil" to the United States. It will be sold at a market price, and the proceeds will go "for the benefit of the people of the United States and Venezuela." In addition, the American leader said that with the funds that the republic will receive from the new deal for the sale of its oil, it will purchase only US products.

The US Department of Energy clarified that Washington intends to assume control over the sale of all oil produced in the Bolivarian Republic indefinitely.

Later, in an interview with The New York Times, Trump explained that such surveillance could last for years. According to him, by controlling Venezuela, the United States intends to use oil, lower its prices and give money to the Bolivarian Republic.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the goal of the United States is to establish control over the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA in order to eventually lower oil prices to around $50 per barrel. On the one hand, this should help reduce energy prices for American consumers, and on the other hand, Washington intends to oust Russia and China from Venezuela. Currently, the cost of March futures for Brent crude oil is about $60 per barrel.

— The most important thing for Americans now is to gain control over resources, to "stake out" a place for themselves in Venezuela. But American companies will not invest tens of billions of dollars there now. They are well aware that the cost of oil is low now. As a result of the lifting of sanctions against Venezuela, they will drop even lower. Then why invest money there to make losses? — Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, told Izvestia.

Venezuela itself seems to be ready to cooperate with the United States. Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, speaking at a meeting with representatives of the National Assembly, said that the country is not at war and is ready to develop economic ties. She noted that Venezuelan oil "should be supplied to the countries of the global North." At the same time, PDVSA reported that they are negotiating with the United States on the sale of oil within the framework of existing trade relations between the two countries.

Venezuelan oil is unlikely to be able to fully enter the world market in the near future, said Alexander Frolov, editor-in-chief of Infotech. About a fifth of the world's oil reserves are concentrated in the country, but its peculiarity is that it is highly sulfur-rich and highly viscous, which makes the process of its extraction quite expensive.

— Oil production in Venezuela has been going on for more than a hundred years. It is likely that the cheapest in production has already been extracted. And the current data on reserves relate to expensive oil. Given that in Venezuela the main reason for the decline in production is related to a series of economic crises not in Venezuela, but in the world, it is naive to expect that at current prices some magical American technologies will suddenly ensure an increase in production," Frolov told Izvestia.

Arrest of oil tankers

While negotiations are underway, the United States continues to maintain a blockade against Venezuelan oil tankers. On January 7, the US Navy boarded the Marinera ship sailing in the Atlantic Ocean under the Russian flag, as it allegedly transported Venezuelan oil. The American authorities will file criminal charges against the crew members of the tanker detained in the Atlantic, said the Minister of Justice-Attorney General of the United States Pam Bondi.

The previous name of the ship is Bella 1. It was chartered by a private trader and sailed under the flag of Guyana. At the end of December, when the ship was off the coast of Venezuela, a US Coast Guard ship tried to intercept it and demanded that the ship move to a US port under its control. The reason was that the United States did not receive confirmation from the Guyanese authorities that the country had indeed provided its flag to the tanker. But the captain did not obey these requirements and changed course — he sailed into the Atlantic Ocean.

According to Izvestia, already there, being chased by a US Coast Guard ship, the vessel changed its name and legitimately received a temporary registration under the Russian flag from the port of Sochi. The majority of the Marinera crew members are Ukrainians — 20 people, six more Georgian citizens and two Russians. The flight was purely commercial in nature.

The Marinera vessel received a temporary permit to sail under the state flag of the Russian Federation on December 24, 2025, the Russian Ministry of Transport said earlier. The Ministry stressed that no state has the right to use force against ships duly registered in the jurisdictions of other states in accordance with the norms of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The Russian Foreign Ministry called on the United States to ensure humane and dignified treatment of Russian citizens on the seized vessel, strictly observe their rights and interests, and not hinder their speedy return to their homeland.

The White House confirmed that the United States has detained another tanker with Venezuelan oil called Sophia, which does not belong to any particular country.

The United States seems to be making it clear that it wants to become the sole players in the Venezuelan oil market. One of the requirements for the current leadership of the country is to sever economic ties with Russia, China, Iran and Cuba, ABC News reported earlier. At the same time, the actions of the Americans may, on the contrary, play into the hands of Russia.

— The US plan also implies depriving China of one of its most profitable fuel suppliers. Against this background, Beijing will switch to Russian oil. Accordingly, the competition for our oil between India and China will be greater, and the discount on our oil will also decrease," Igor Yushkov notes.

The internal situation in Venezuela

On the night of January 3, the United States conducted an operation to capture Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Celia Flores. The New York court arrested him until March 17. The American authorities accuse Maduro of drug trafficking, but it is not known if they have any evidence. Although Delcy Rodriguez has already taken the oath of office, she stressed that Nicolas Maduro remains the current leader of Venezuela. By the way, this gesture, in addition to demonstrating loyalty, may also mean the unwillingness of both the authorities in Caracas and Washington to set a date for new presidential elections.

At the same time, the foreign press claims that the American authorities see Delcy Rodriguez as an excellent candidate for the post of interim head of the republic. According to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, she is more pragmatic than Maduro and easier to work with. In addition, unlike representatives of the opposition, Rodriguez controls the army, and also understands how the country's oil sector works, since in the last two years, in addition to serving as vice president, she led the Ministry of Oil.

Moreover, according to CNN, Washington had been negotiating with Maduro for several months before the start of the operation to capture her, as well as with the chairman of the National Assembly of the country, Jorge Rodriguez. They allegedly aimed to try to encourage the leadership of the Latin American country to change its behavior, but did not concern assistance in overthrowing Maduro.

Washington has already developed a three-step plan for Venezuela. It was shared on January 7 by Marco Rubio, who is responsible for this process. The help of Delcy Rodriguez, apparently, will be needed only in the first two stages.

The first of them involves measures to stabilize the country's economy — the establishment of control over how oil revenues will be spent, as well as the withdrawal of those 30-50 million barrels "for the needs of the population."

The second stage is designed as a recovery. It is assumed that the United States will provide access to the Venezuelan market for American, Western and other companies on some fair terms. At the same time, the process of so-called "national reconciliation" should begin, when the oppositionists should receive amnesty and be released from prison. At the third stage, a full-fledged transition of power and political reforms will be completed.

The question at the moment remains whether Russia will be able to maintain its influence in Venezuela under the interim government, as well as following a likely change of power.

— It's too early to talk about a complete loss of interests. During the period of the interim government, a collapse is unlikely to occur, rather there will be a freeze," Andrei Pyatakov, a leading researcher at the ILA RAS Analytical Research Center, told Izvestia.

According to him, this period of uncertainty may last until new elections are called, and the interim government will delay their holding in every possible way if US pressure does not become critical.