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- To encroach on a saint: the United States and Israel are thinking about the physical elimination of the Iranian Rahbar
To encroach on a saint: the United States and Israel are thinking about the physical elimination of the Iranian Rahbar
Tehran is confident that the United States and Israel are trying to destabilize Iran from within: in particular, to physically eliminate the country's supreme leader Ali Khamenei in the hope of causing unrest. The reason for this in the country is already the worsening shortage of water resources. Against this background, the Iranian authorities are seriously considering moving the capital from Tehran. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Rahbar is in danger
"The enemy seeks to destroy the supreme leader and takes actions to strike at the unity, progress, stability and resilience of Iran — sometimes (by assassination attempts. — Izvestia), sometimes [attempting] hostile attacks inside the country today," said Ismail Khatib, head of the Iranian intelligence ministry.
According to him, Tehran has no doubt that whoever makes such attempts, either consciously or unconsciously, "is an agent of enemy influence and acts at the behest of the enemies, the United States and Israel, strictly against the interests of the people, unity and sovereignty of the state."
The minister added that the campaign includes cyber attacks, attempts to provoke social unrest and disinformation. He stressed that Khamenei is the "pillar and axis" of Iran, which is why "the enemy is trying to hit the leadership — sometimes with assassinations, and sometimes with such attacks, which even today are carried out from within the country."
On the night of June 13, Israel, accusing Tehran of implementing a secret military nuclear program, launched an operation against Iran. The IDF chose nuclear facilities, air bases, leading nuclear physicists and senior military leadership as targets of aerial bombardments.
The Iranian authorities have denied all charges against them. For 12 days, the sides exchanged blows. Subsequently, the United States joined Israel, and on the night of June 22, the US military attacked Iran's nuclear facilities. The next day, Tehran launched missile attacks on the American base of Al-Udeid in Qatar, while stressing that it was not going to escalate further.
At the same time, a number of experts suggested that the main target of Israel during the acute phase of the conflict was Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In their opinion, this could lead to the destabilization of the country.
Moving the capital to another location
Meanwhile, there are reasons for street unrest in Iran. The country has experienced a record drought in 60 years, and a crisis has begun due to a shortage of water resources. The situation was aggravated by outdated infrastructure and inefficient management.
Temporary water supply restrictions have been introduced in Tehran and some major cities. Residents are stocking up on water in case of disruptions. In 2021, protests broke out in the province of Khuzestan in the south-west of the country due to lack of water.
Against this background, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian once again spoke about the need to move the capital from Tehran closer to the Persian Gulf. According to him, this solution would help to cope with the water shortage. While problems with water supply amid population growth can lead to a humanitarian catastrophe.
At the same time, other proposals are being received from the office of the head of state. In particular, it is proposed to resolve the crisis with the help of new technologies and resource management in the Iranian capital itself. For example, to carry out the transit of water from the Gulf to Tehran.
In addition to water problems, Iran also fears a new confrontation with Israel. There have been reports in the media about West Jerusalem's readiness to repeat the war with Tehran. It is noted that the discontent of the Israeli authorities was caused by reports that Iran has recently been able to restore its missile potential and is close to reviving its weapons reserves, as well as trying to rearm its allies, in particular the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah.
In addition, Israel is concerned about Tehran's attempts to resume negotiations with the administration of Donald Trump. The Iranian authorities sent such a message through Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who recently came to the White House for talks. Riyadh offered to mediate in the resumption of contacts that were interrupted due to the 12-day war.
What do the experts think
Ivan Glukhov, a researcher at the INION RAS Center for the Study of the Global South, noted in an interview with Izvestia that the United States and Israel see Iran's destabilization as one of their long-term goals in the Middle East region.
— At the same time, we are not talking about the elimination of Iran as a whole, but about changing the political regime, establishing a government that is beneficial and loyal to the interests of the collective West. But still, they believe that control over this territory should be carried out from one center, otherwise there is a risk of upsetting a rather fragile regional balance," the political scientist explained.
He added that after the events of late 2024 and early 2025, when Iran was forced to abandon some of its positions in the region — in Palestine and Lebanon — the country's supreme leadership faced a difficult dilemma. In fact, this is why the authorities decided to change their main foreign and domestic policy. Now Iran follows the logic of self-reliance and self-sufficiency, Glukhov stated.
In Iran, both the elites and the common people realized their vulnerability, and they became especially aware of it after nuclear scientists, a number of high-ranking officers and generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the armed forces were eliminated as a result of missile strikes," the expert said.
The expert is sure that against the background of this vulnerability of the country, the Iranian people rallied around the government. Now, in fact, Israel and the United States have helped shape the political situation in such a way that it meets their interests less.
— There are still quite a lot of these fault points, but the efforts that the United States and Israel need to make in order to take advantage of them need to be made much more than a year ago. It can be said that the West's strategy towards Iran has not been justified. However, this does not mean that new social upheavals and protests are impossible," the analyst believes.
Glukhov emphasized that this does not mean stopping attempts to split Iran.
— Iran is a multinational state with a rather complicated domestic political picture, and external forces have repeatedly tried to take advantage of this. As for the shortage of water resources, the crisis, including certain problems with energy, as well as the idea of moving the capital of Iran from Tehran, this is not the first time this topic has arisen and is being discussed at a fairly high level," the political scientist said.
According to him, some Iranian experts note that it is likely that there is little behind these statements in reality, the postponement is being discussed only hypothetically.
— Perhaps this is a way to make some kind of maneuver, to distract the attention of the internal and external audience from the really problematic moments. As for the personality of Rahbar himself, it is difficult to overestimate the importance of the figure of the supreme leader of Iran for the Islamic Republic," the expert said.
The expert added that attempts to undermine the internal political situation in Iran along other fault lines have recently shown their ineffectiveness. He believes it is likely that external forces have returned to the idea of the need to behead Iran's political leadership.
— However, the efforts of the United States and Israel so far have allowed a very significant blow to be inflicted on Iran, but, on the contrary, they have led to the rallying of the people around the current political leadership. The initial strategy of the West did not have the expected effect, and therefore the possibility of some kind of destabilization should still be considered as purely hypothetical," the analyst concluded.
Adlan Margoev, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies and a lecturer at the MGIMO Department of Oriental Studies, noted that modern Iran is a fusion of national and religious.
— In order to gain public support, Iran is beginning to turn to non-religious traditions, among other things. When this is transferred to foreign policy, we have to find a convenient way to "package" this decision into some kind of national or religious tradition. The Iranian leadership successfully appeals to these traditions," the political scientist believes.
According to the expert, there is an interest of proxy forces in the Iranian nuclear program.
— Tehran has resumed consultations with the IAEA. In addition, Iran generally belongs to those countries that try to avoid conflicts. However, after the 12-day war, no lasting peace was established, and one should not be surprised if hostilities resume," the expert concluded.
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