The Southern difference: should we expect a new war between Israel and Hezbollah

Tensions between Israel and Lebanon are growing: the IDF has increased the frequency of strikes on the territory of southern Lebanon. The raids are positioned as "preventive" in order to deter Hezbollah. However, in reality, they are aimed rather at forcing Beirut to accept the conditions of the United States and Israel in an expedited manner. At the same time, despite the ongoing escalation of the conflict, experts believe that it is not worth expecting a repeat of the events of 2024, when the Israeli army and Hezbollah waged large-scale hostilities.

Escalation of the situation in Lebanon

The last major incident took place on November 8, when Israeli aircraft and UAVs targeted vehicles in eastern and southern Lebanon. As a result of the attack, three people were killed and 11 others were injured. Prior to this, the most high—profile IDF operation was a night raid on hangars located along the Musailih road (southern Lebanon) in the first decade of October, when several dozen pieces of construction equipment were destroyed, which allegedly belonged to Hezbollah and was used to erect fortifications across the Litani River.

Each new Israeli attack causes a significant outburst of indignation both in Lebanon and abroad. European and Arab countries have expressed concern, considering the strikes to be harbingers of the breakdown of the peace agreement. At the same time, the Israeli leadership, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, does not see a problem in what is happening and considers the army's actions to be a reaction to the growing threat to the northern part of Israel.

"We expect the Lebanese government to fulfill its promises, namely to disarm Hezbollah, but we will exercise our right to self-defense, as stipulated by the terms of the ceasefire," Netanyahu said in a recent address.

This is in stark contrast to his position in September, when he stated that he "believes in an early peace" between Israel and Lebanon.

Close to completion

In Lebanon, such attacks tend to be interpreted as hostile. For example, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, in response to Netanyahu's rhetoric, said that normalization of relations with Israel was "out of the question," especially in the face of ongoing strikes. However, despite the confrontational rhetoric of some officials, official Beirut is not interested in a conflict with Israel, and is in a hurry to assure the Jewish state of this. Including by drawing attention to the specific results of their work.

Thus, according to the Lebanese military command, the process of disarming Hezbollah is nearing completion: by the beginning of November, 90% of the weapons at its disposal at the time of the signing of the armistice agreement in November 2024 had been seized from the movement. In addition, the security forces, together with the peacekeepers, managed to eliminate more than a hundred firing points, as well as "completely close" at least four Hezbollah bases in southern Lebanon. At the next stage of the ceasefire, Beirut is going to install towers equipped with surveillance equipment in the southern regions in order to systematically monitor the situation.

Israel is skeptical. According to the IDF General Staff, Hezbollah still retains at least a quarter of its arsenals, and also owns a number of commanding heights near the borders. In addition, West Jerusalem is unhappy that Hezbollah, contrary to Beirut's promises, retains independent sources of funding that allow the movement to stay afloat and purchase new weapons from neighboring countries.

Israeli alarmists from among military experts and political scientists go even further in their negative assessments. In their opinion, the implementation of the Hezbollah disarmament program by the Lebanese army is playing the role of a distraction. In fact, the movement is carrying out a "hidden modernization of arsenals", as well as creating underground fortifications and camouflaged launch pads, which negates the previous successes achieved by the Israeli army in the Lebanese direction.

The latest American warning

The United States, which has been trying to secure the signing of diplomatic deals between Lebanon, Israel and Syria (along with disarming Hezbollah) since the truce was signed in the fall of 2024, is also not too happy with what is happening.

As the agreement promoted by Washington is stalling, the rhetoric of the American representatives is getting tougher. The responsibility for instability in the border area lies not with Israel, but with Lebanon. Thus, the US Ambassador to Turkey and special representative for Syria, Tom Barrack, who acts as an informal "curator" of the plan to disarm Hezbollah, expressed doubt that the Lebanese authorities are able to return political subjectivity.

"Lebanon has a long history of chaos, failed governments and wars. Today, it is a state in a state of disintegration," he said at a diplomatic forum in Bahrain.

Among other things, in early November, the United States set an unspoken "deadline" for Beirut to finish work on Hezbollah's disarmament by the end of the month. Otherwise, both the Lebanese movement and the official structures "will face negative consequences."

However, experts are still skeptical about the prospects for direct U.S. intervention in the conflict. As political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev noted in an interview with Izvestia, Washington is much more likely to put pressure on the warring parties "from the outside", forcing them to remain within the framework of the ceasefire agreement.

— The style of the White House's foreign policy behavior at the moment is based on attempts to influence the conflicting parties economically, politically, and sometimes psychologically, resorting to bargaining, tariff blackmail, and pressure through intimidation. The Lebanese-Israeli conflict is unlikely to be a big exception to the rule in the strategy of building the image of "peacekeepers with guns" who solve world conflicts with their weighty words without shedding unnecessary blood, the expert concluded.

Hezbollah expects Israel to resume the war

Hezbollah representatives believe that the tightening of rhetoric around the disarmament plan is connected with the preparation of a new campaign in southern Lebanon. Moreover, the main factor (the Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip), which restrained the Netanyahu government from opening a new front, disappeared from the agenda with the introduction of a truce in the Palestinian exclave.

In light of the increased frequency of attacks by the IDF, Hezbollah tried to play on the patriotism of the Lebanese and call for unity around the flag and joint opposition to Israeli aggression. However, in practice, this has resulted in deepening disagreements between the main political camps. The question of whether to disarm Hezbollah in the near future has become a ground for confrontation, especially since the Shiite movement has explicitly indicated its unwillingness to completely abandon its military potential.

According to Grigory Lukyanov, an employee of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, this serves as the main trigger for Israel to increase the volume of military operations and the scale of military operations in the future. At the same time, there is no interest in escalation on the part of Hezbollah.

"There is a high probability of increased activity by Israel, but not increased confrontation, as mutual actions directed against each other," the expert explains.

On the other hand, Lukyanov also points out that the current turbulence opens up new political opportunities. Especially for those elites who took a position of "positive neutrality" towards Hezbollah.

— For them, this is a chance to bargain once again for the use of their modest political resources in the framework of the settlement process with the United States and the current president of Lebanon and the camp of his supporters. In other words, this is a typical sluggish bargaining situation, which many are quite happy with, much more than the drastic changes that the real disarmament of Hezbollah promises according to the parameters laid down by the previously proposed plan," he said.

With this formulation of the issue, instability in the border region becomes more of an element of bargaining, which the warring factions will use in further diplomatic games. Moreover, each in its own favor.