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- Heavy debts: the share of problem loans for the purchase of housing is growing in Russia
Heavy debts: the share of problem loans for the purchase of housing is growing in Russia
In Russia, the share of mortgage loans for housing, for which there are problems with payments, is increasing. If from the beginning of the year this indicator was less than 1%, then by September it had grown to 1.6%, the Central Bank told Izvestia. They noted that this figure could have been higher if not for the strict measures of the regulator. At the same time, the Bank of Russia recognizes the high risks of selling housing through the installment mechanism, which has become actively used in conditions of a high key interest rate. They insist that such information should be transmitted to the credit bureaus.
Why did the share of problem loans start to grow
The share of problem loans for the purchase of housing with a mortgage has increased by 0.6 percentage points since the beginning of 2025 and amounted to 1.6% as of September 1, the press service of the Central Bank told Izvestia, noting that it began to deteriorate from the end of 2024, although it is still at an acceptable level.
"The increase is primarily due to the maturation of loans issued during the rush of demand for massive preferential mortgages (in the second half of 2023 — the first half of 2024) to borrowers with a high debt burden, largely for the purposes of individual housing construction," the regulator's press service noted.
At the same time, they added that the measures taken by the Central Bank to limit systemic risks have significantly improved the quality of mortgages issued.
— Thus, in the second quarter of 2025, the share of mortgages with low down payments (no more than 20%) in the total volume of loans decreased to 5%. At its peak in the fourth quarter of 2022, it reached 54%. The share of such loans with a debt burden of more than 80% decreased to 6% in the second quarter of this year, while at its peak in the third quarter of 2023 it reached 47%. If it were not for the harsh measures of the Bank of Russia in 2023-2024, the level of problem debt could have been significantly higher this year," the regulator explained.
They believe that these measures have also allowed banks to accumulate capital reserves in a timely manner that can cover their potential losses.
At the same time, the Central Bank recalled that buying housing in installments can be risky for both buyers and developers. As Izvestia previously wrote, since this year, developers have been massively using this mechanism in conditions of a high key rate.
— Firstly, if a person does not have the entire amount to buy an apartment and expects to take out a mortgage in a year or two at the end of the installment plan, then he may have problems if the bank does not approve the loan or the payment on it is not as expected by the buyer. In this case, a person risks being left without an apartment and losing the money already deposited — it all depends on the terms of the contract," the regulator's press service explained.
Secondly, the developer may overestimate the cost of the apartment in order to compensate for his costs, and there may not be any benefits for the buyer from such an installment plan, the Central Bank noted.
— There are also risks for the developer, so the analysis of the creditworthiness of buyers is also important. Developers need it to better assess their financial prospects, and banks need it to properly assess the developer's creditworthiness. To do this, it is necessary to ensure transparency of information about installments. Therefore, we advocate that such information be sent to the credit bureaus," the regulator's press service said.
This data should be transmitted not by developers, but by banks, which have already established a channel of interaction with the bureau and have the Central Bank monitor this process, the regulator stressed.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Construction with a request to give its assessment of the growth of problem housing loans.
Not the best scenario for banks
In August 2025, the volume of overdue mortgage loans reached the highest levels in the entire history of such programs in Russia and amounted to 156.9 billion rubles, the analytical center "Movement" told Izvestia.ru", having studied the reports of the Central Bank. At the same time, they noted that the volume of all overdue housing loans has already exceeded a record 170 billion rubles.
"If we consider the average monthly overdue debt for the periods from January to August of each year starting in 2018, then in 2025, in absolute monetary terms, it almost doubled compared to 2024 (+90.89%)," the analysts said.
Representatives of the banking community assess the situation with the growth of overdue debts in different ways.
— This is an expected trend due to the growth of the key. With a low rate, some of the potential future debtors would have sold the property more easily and would not have fallen into debt. Due to the high demand, the market has slowed down, as it is more difficult to withstand the mortgage burden. There are always risks, now defaults and bankruptcies have increased significantly," the press service of T-Bank told Izvestia.
They also noted that in the case of mortgages, bankruptcy is less dangerous, since (as practice shows) people are willing to exclude it from the list of bankruptcy loans and continue to pay regular payments.
"This is not the best scenario for banks due to increased reserves, but it is better than not paying," the financial institution clarified.
Despite the increase in overdue debt, the quality of the mortgage portfolio of financial institutions remains good, the share of overdue debt on such loans is now extremely small, Anna Zemlyanova, chief analyst at Sovcombank, told Izvestia.
— The increase in overdue mortgage debt may be associated with an active increase in new loans in previous years. Banks have a sufficient capital buffer, and the risks to the sector are assessed as manageable," she said.
As for the sale of real estate in installments, then, according to her, according to "Dom.The Russian Federation", in the first half of 2025, this share was 11% (9% in 2024, 4% in 2023).
— The growing share of installments carries risks for developers and indirectly for financial organizations. The Central Bank has issued recommendations for banks on how to properly consider the risks of such projects. An increase in this share in sales may lead to an increase in reserves for possible losses on such projects," explained Anna Zemlyanova.
Izvestia also sent inquiries to Dom Bank.Russian Federation", Sberbank, Rosselkhoznadzor, Alfa-Bank and other financial organizations.
Hidden threat or stabilization of the situation
Indeed, overdue debt has increased, but this is more a question for banks — I would like to understand how it is formed — on previously issued loans with normal interest rates or on mortgage loans with exorbitantly high interest rates issued after the key increase, said Maxim Fedorchenko, president of the Association of Construction Organizations of the Novosibirsk Region.
— In the first case, this will indicate a drop in household incomes, probably due to the hypothermia of the economy. The second is about the adventurous policy of banks that incorrectly assess the solvency of borrowers. Many people take out mortgages in the expectation of a future rate reduction and the opportunity to re—credit at lower interest rates in the future," said a representative of the construction industry.
According to him, about the same thing happens when selling housing in installments. Someone has a clear way to repay it (real estate is for sale, the deposit period must expire, etc.), but many take it in the hope of improving the economic situation.
— And this is fraught with the onset of mass non—payments in the future next year, if the key rate or special government programs do not allow citizens to take out a mortgage at least at 10-12% per annum (the percentage at which the average income of borrowers' families will allow at least with difficulty, but to repay the interest on the loan), - said Maxim Fedorchenko.
The growth of Russians' debts in 2025 is natural, says Ruslan Syrtsov, Managing director of Metrium.
— Against the background of high inflation, citizens began to apply for loans less often. However, taking into account the protective rates, the marginal cost of loans, monthly payments and the amount of overpayment increased many times compared to the values of previous years. The number of delays is also increasing, despite stricter conditions for approving loans, including mortgages," he explained to Izvestia.
According to him, additional fees were in effect for several months as part of the family mortgage, which also increased the price of loans. But given the Central Bank's current policy of easing monetary policy, the situation is expected to stabilize in the coming year, the expert believes.
He also noted that only developers bear serious risks from providing installments, as the pace of filling escrow accounts slows down.
— By itself, the share of overdue debt is still uncritical, especially since banks initially took into account such risks. It must be borne in mind that conditions are different everywhere. For example, in the Far East, where they are the most lenient on mortgages nationwide, the percentage of delinquency does not exceed 0.5%. At the same time, a number of entities with pronounced specifics demonstrate values far beyond the national norm," Olga Khasanova, General Director of URBAN real estate projects, told Izvestia.
So, in Ingushetia, the figure reaches 11%, in Dagestan — 4.5%, in the Chechen Republic — 3.8%, in North Ossetia — 3.6%, in Tuva — 3.2%, the business representative noted.
According to her, the trend itself is much more alarming. From 2020 to early 2024, the share of overdue mortgages gradually decreased. But since the spring of last year, it has been increasing in leaps and bounds. We are dealing with an almost threefold increase over the past year and a half, and this is the first time a similar situation has developed in the Russian Federation, the expert noted.
She agrees that to some extent this was provoked by the adventurous behavior of some of the consumer audience and the banks that indulged it. Although the basic reason lies in the fact that borrowers are under pressure from inflation and a real decline in income. They are no longer able to service commitments made during a more prosperous period, the expert believes.
Dmitry Khalin, CEO and Managing partner of Intermark Urban Real Estate, recalled that in the United States, on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis, the share of problem loans reached 25% of the total, and the share of customers who eventually went bankrupt and could not service this loan reached 15%. According to him, Russia is still very far from reaching these figures.
However, he agrees that there is a problem with servicing payments for housing purchased in installments.
— Now developers, trying to maintain the volume of transactions, are attracting more and more buyers with a low entry fee. In some cases, it reaches 5-10%, which in some ways resembles a mortgage with a zero or minimum initial payment. And, of course, such buyers are a risk group," the business representative said.
In classical Western models, where such schemes are used, it is assumed that if the buyer fails to fulfill his obligations, he always has a chance to transfer to a market mortgage at a low rate. But in Russia, borrowers do not have such an opportunity yet, since few people can afford such a loan at 20%, and this is not a solution to the problem at all, Dmitry Khalin noted.
Therefore, according to him, to some extent this is really a hidden threat to the housing market - developers in one to three years may face large payments if the market mortgage rate does not reach the range at which it can actually be serviced — 11-12% maximum.
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