The key game: why the Central Bank's rate won't fall below 15% this year%
According to experts, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is unlikely to lower its key rate below 14-15% in 2025, despite market pressure and the desire of businesses to obtain cheaper loans. It is expected that this rate level will affect the entire range of economic phenomena, from inflation and the investment climate to mortgage availability and the financial stability of small and medium—sized businesses. However, former first deputy chairman of the Central Bank Oleg Vyugin believes that the current rate should be kept at 17%. Financiers and economists provide a comprehensive assessment of the current situation and share forecasts for 2026. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Cautiously reducing or maintaining rates
The last quarter of 2025 raises important questions: how exactly and how quickly is the Central Bank ready to reduce the key rate if the fiscal policy situation and inflationary risks remain high? This dilemma attracts the attention of not only financiers, but also politicians, for whom the rate is not just a figure, but a tool to keep the economy afloat.
Despite difficult budget decisions, monetary policy easing will continue this year, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market Anatoly Aksakov said in an interview with Izvestia.
— I believe that at the two remaining meetings of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on October 24 and December 19, the key rate will gradually decrease from the current 17%. Most likely, in increments of 1 percentage point, and at the last meeting this year it will be set at 15%. It will be possible to lower the rate below this level only with more favorable inflationary dynamics, however, it is better to be careful in this matter," Aksakov said.
This year, a rational decision would be to leave the rate at 17% due to high uncertainty about the lack of budget funding, said Oleg Vyugin, former first deputy chairman of the Central Bank and former first Deputy Finance Minister of the Russian Federation.
His view reflects the complexity of the budget situation and the expectation that a sharp decline will lead to increased inflationary pressures.
"The budget deficit will have a pro—inflationary effect in the first half of 2026, which limits the possibilities for reducing the rate," the expert believes.
The consequences of a high rate on business
The impact of maintaining the rate above 15% is particularly acute for businesses — access to finance remains expensive and limited, which hinders the development of companies. Experts warn of increasing problems with the credit burden and debt risks.
— The share of problem loans increased to 10.4%, especially in metallurgy, oil refining and construction. This pressure is especially felt by small and medium—sized enterprises, for which every penny of debt servicing is expensive," says Pavel Neumyvakin, Executive Vice President of the Association of Russian Banks.
Since the beginning of the year, the growth rate of the corporate portfolio has begun to recover, but the rates remain high, making investments difficult, the expert adds.
Nevertheless, there are positive developments that will lead to a reduction in the rate even to 15%, draws the attention of Alexander Isaevich, CEO of the SME State Corporation.
— The "key" value of 15% is certainly not the rate level that businesses would like to see, but in this case, preferential programs for small technology companies will become cheaper. In this case, the MTK program rate will be 8% per annum (taking into account the calculation using the formula "key rate minus 7%"), — says the expert.
Thus, even a small step simultaneously eases the pressure on businesses and stimulates investments in priority sectors.
Access to housing will remain difficult
The impact of the rate varies for different groups of the population, but the availability of mortgages is one of the most pressing issues, explains Yuri Kravchenko, head of the Banking and Money Market Analysis Department at IC Veles Capital.
— The dynamics of the mortgage market will still be determined by preferential government programs. Even at a rate of 15%, a market mortgage remains unaffordable for borrowers and can only be used for a very short period (for example, until the sale of "old" real estate, etc.). Market recovery can be expected only when the CSR approaches the level of 10%, the economist clarifies.
The reduction in the key rate in June – September 2025 should contribute to an increase in mortgage availability, but the effect will depend on further steps taken by the regulator, confirms Andrey Melashchenko, economist at Renaissance Capital.
Until mortgage rates drop below 11-12%, which will freeze demand in the real estate market, says Vladimir Vinogradov, CEO of Pro-Vision Communications.
Financial markets and investments
When it comes to financial instruments and market expectations, analysts pay attention to the fine line between supporting economic growth and inflation risks.
"A tight monetary policy coupled with higher taxes will lead to a slowdown in the economy and a deterioration in the situation of companies,— warns Alexander Dzhioev from Alfa Capital Management Company.
At the same time, any decisions of the Central Bank significantly affect the dynamics of the market.
— The bond market has already set expectations for a rate cut. This will improve the results of investors, but it reduces the potential for new investments," says Anton Tabakh from the Expert RA agency.
The regulator will avoid too rapid a reduction, so as not to provoke inflation and a sharp jump in demand, adds Pavel Verevkin, senior analyst at KIT Finance's financial markets analysis department.
In turn, Olga Orlova, Head of the Department of Banks, Financial Markets and Insurance at St. Petersburg State University, emphasizes that the Central Bank's capabilities are limited by non-monetary factors: geopolitics and rising budget expenditures.
Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, is confident that CS will not fall below 15% by the end of the year, and in general, the high-interest period will last until the end of next year. Nevertheless, most small and medium-sized businesses are experiencing a revival in lending in the summer and autumn of 2025.
— A long-term high rate (from 15% and above) will support tight monetary policy, stimulate savings, and restrain consumption and investment. This means that loans will remain expensive for businesses and the public, but deposits will remain attractive. At the same time, inflation will decrease from 8.1% to about 6.2% by the end of the year, due to the strong ruble and stable fiscal policy. Economic growth is expected to slow down to about 0.8% in 2025, compared with 4.3% a year earlier," the analyst concludes.
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