Everything is ready: mortgage issuance for the secondary jumped sharply in August
Banks have sharply increased the issuance of mortgage loans for secondary housing, Izvestia found out. The main reason for the surge was the market's reaction to the decline in the key rate, which made mortgages a little more affordable and encouraged buyers to take action. Nevertheless, housing loan rates remain at a prohibitive level — the overpayment can be fourfold. Moreover, against the background of growing demand for secondary goods, prices may rise by 7% by the end of the year.
Why have mortgages for secondary housing increased?
The largest banks noted a sharp increase in mortgage repayments in August, Izvestia found out. Demand has intensified against the background of Russians' expectations for a reduction in the key interest rate. Nevertheless, the market has already changed its forecasts regarding the regulator's policy — now the dynamics may slow down somewhat.
The Savings Bank issued housing loans for ready-made housing in the amount of about 41.2 billion rubles, the organization's press service said. 30% more than in July. This reflects the trend in the entire market, experts said.
VTB also noted the increased demand. Nevertheless, there has not been a full-fledged recovery of the market yet, the press service of the organization clarified.
The Bank of Saint Petersburg reported that the disbursements are also growing compared to August last year. The figures have more than doubled.
Absolut Bank recorded an increase in demand for second homes in September. In the first weeks of the month, the share of secondary mortgages increased by one and a half times compared to August, said Vitaly Kostyukevich, director of the Retail products department of the financial institution.
The jump in consumer demand for second homes occurred in August due to expectations for a reduction in the key interest rate, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. At that time, it was at 18%, but in September it was lowered again, this time to 17%.
VTB noted that the behavior of borrowers was influenced by lower rates on basic mortgage programs. Banks adjusted them against the background of easing the Central Bank's policy — now the three largest market players have housing loan rates ranging from 20.8–31% per annum.
But this is still a barrier level, experts are sure. So, the overpayment of even the "most profitable" loan for an average term of about 25 years for an apartment worth 12 million rubles with a down payment of 20% will be fourfold, and the monthly contribution will exceed 160 thousand rubles.
There is a clear price imbalance in the market today. The average cost per square meter in the secondary market is about 15-20% lower than in new buildings, and in some cases the difference reaches 80% (for example, in the Central Federal District), said Evgeny Shavnev, CEO of Flip investment company. This makes buying ready-made housing an increasingly attractive alternative.
There are many reasons for this difference. First of all, these are the consequences of preferential mortgage programs, the expert explained. Loans with a government-subsidized rate stimulated demand for new buildings, which allowed developers to raise the price tag without fear of declining sales. Developers actually got the opportunity to actively regulate pricing and set a new cost level.
The rise in the cost of building materials has also played an important role: rising prices for metal, concrete, finishing and engineering systems directly increase the cost of building houses. Add to this an increase in the cost of loans for the construction business, and we get additional pressure on the final cost per square meter, concluded Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department at the Rikom—Trust investment company.
Unlike new buildings, secondary real estate does not depend on fluctuations in the cost of materials, said Evgeny Shavnev. Here, pricing is based on the real situation of supply and demand, as well as on the expectations of the owners. Most sellers understand that an inflated price can significantly increase the sale period: instead of the standard two to three months, the transaction can take more than six months.
According to surveys, about 69% of secondary home owners are interested in a quick sale, so they try to set the price closer to the market, the expert said. This is what makes the secondary market more flexible and adaptable to current market conditions, especially against the background of lower rates and growing financial caution among buyers.
How much can apartments go up in price
The strategy of many Russians this year was to purchase properties at a lower price now that the market is experiencing a period of relative cooling, and then, by the end of the year, take advantage of the opportunity to refinance loans on more favorable terms, said Evgeny Shavnev.
He added that the demand for real estate directly affects the price dynamics: the more active buyers enter the market, the higher the cost of properties becomes. Therefore, many borrowers are trying to purchase housing or commercial real estate right now — before the start of the next wave of price appreciation, which is expected as interest rates continue to decrease in the economy.
Traditionally, the autumn months, especially September and October, are considered to be among the most active in the real estate market. This year, the seasonal increase in interest in buying was reinforced by an additional factor — a decrease in the cost of borrowed funds. According to Shavnev, demand in September 2025 increased by at least 10% compared to the same period last year. It is too early to talk about the formation of a stable trend, but the first signs of recovery are obvious.
Until the end of 2025, the base scenario remains the key rate at 16% per annum. This forecast assumes moderate inflation rates and the absence of new external shocks in the economy, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. A bolder scenario allows for 15% per annum, but its implementation requires a more noticeable slowdown in price growth and stabilization of the credit market, he explained.
Mortgage demand for secondary housing may grow by another 10-20% by the end of the year compared to August. The main drivers remain the expectation of a further reduction in the key rate, the activation of banks, as well as the traditional seasonal peak of transactions in October and November, Vladimir Chernov added.
Vasily Kutyin, Ingo Bank's Director of Analytics, gave a more restrained assessment. In his opinion, the Central Bank, given the current state of the budget and plans for tax changes, is highly likely to keep the key rate at 17% per annum at a meeting in late October. If inflation starts to stabilize in December, we can expect a symbolic rate cut to 16%, the expert believes.
However, even this level remains a constraint for the market. In order for the mortgage sector to receive a steady boost to growth, the key rate should drop to the range of 10-12%, said Olga Kovalenko, head of the Mortgage Lending Department at Sovcombank. According to her, it is this range that makes mortgages affordable for the mass borrower.
Against the background of increased demand, prices for second homes can grow by an average of 2-4% across the country by the end of the year. In large metropolitan areas and regions where there is a shortage of high—quality housing stock, the rates may be higher - up to 4-6%. Among the factors that are holding back a more rapid rise in prices are the uneven growth of household incomes and limited availability of mortgages, even despite a decrease in the key one. Therefore, we can expect a moderate increase in prices without sudden jumps, Vladimir Chernov believes.
According to Vasily Kutin, if the Central Bank still continues to reduce the rate to 16% per annum, housing prices may add an additional 7-13% by the end of the year.
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