For someone else's shield: Ukraine is trying to draw more and more countries into conflict with the Russian Federation

Europe continues to be drawn into the conflict in Ukraine. Against the background of a series of UAV incidents in Poland, the Warsaw Security Forum started: at its opening, Vladimir Zelensky proposed that European countries create a joint "air shield" against alleged Russian threats. Moscow took the idea critically: this initiative only contributes to the involvement of Europe as a participant in the conflict, Grigory Karasin, chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, tells Izvestia. Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of Poland, Germany and France met in Warsaw to discuss the UAV incidents in Europe.

Ukraine proposed to create an "air shield"

The Warsaw Security Forum, the Eastern European equivalent of the Munich Conference, began in Poland on September 29. Every year, politicians, military personnel and experts discuss approaches to security in Europe. Since 2022, coordination of assistance to Ukraine has been added to the discussion topics.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the head of the Kiev regime, Vladimir Zelensky, delivered speeches at the opening of the forum. Moreover, the latter was conditionally present — he was connected via video link. The rhetoric of both politicians was noticeably aggressive. Tusk announced the confrontation between Europe and Russia and called it a new type of war, and Zelensky proposed creating some kind of "air shield" against the threats of the Russian Federation. He is going to discuss this project with his allies, primarily with Poland.

The Ukrainian leader is trying to draw as many European countries into the confrontation with Russia as possible, because he can no longer rely on his own strength, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Grigory Karasin told Izvestia.

— Zelensky is constantly trying to draw as many (political) forces into a confrontation with us, with Russia. — Izvestia) forces, <...> because he understands that it is too late to rely on his own strength and on his own common sense. All the laws, all the provisions of the UN Charter, all the provisions of common sense have already been violated by him and his team. Therefore, this (the "air shield" proposal. — Izvestia) all provocative plans, — the senator emphasized.

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According to him, the myths about the Russian threat and the idea of a no-fly zone over Ukraine are an attempt to exacerbate the tragedy that is happening in this state thanks to Vladimir Zelensky. The proposal for an "air shield" helps to attract Europe as a participant in the conflict, Karasin concluded. At the same time, there is now a pause in the Russian-Ukrainian dialogue due to Kiev, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Zelensky's words about the creation of an "air shield" make it clear that Europe plans to solve the Ukrainian crisis through the creation of a no-fly zone, Vladimir Vinokurov, editor-in-chief of the Diplomatic Service magazine and professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.

"Any deployment and attempts to resolve the issue of security guarantees through such means with the participation of the NATO armed forces will be harshly suppressed, since they will be considered by Russia as objects for suppression by our armed forces,— Vinokurov stressed.

Zelensky did not say anything new in this regard. His words about the "air shield" are a return to the conversation about the no—fly zone over Ukraine, which he has been asking NATO for since the beginning of the conflict. Recently, against the background of the situation with drones in Polish airspace, the country's Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that the Europeans should consider introducing such a zone over Ukraine.

If European countries implement this idea and start shooting down everything, it will transfer the conflict from the regional to the continental level, military expert and editor of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine Alexei Leonkov told Izvestia.

— The fact is that there is now a large shortage of air defense equipment and the issue of organizing something serious requires a large number of complexes. According to Western experts, Patriot complexes alone will require from 18 to 25 batteries in order to create a more or less protected area. And the West, including the United States, has only 100 left," he said.

It is unlikely that countries will take such a risk to transfer air defense systems to Ukraine or subordinate them to the actions of the authorities of this country, Leonkov noted.

The countries of the "Weimar Triangle" discussed incidents with UAVs

At the same time, a meeting of the foreign ministers of the countries of the "Weimar Triangle" — Poland, Germany and France - took place in Warsaw. The name of the three countries came from a meeting in German Weimar, held in 1991. Then the foreign ministers established a platform for coordinating the policies of France, Germany and Poland. On September 29, these countries also discussed policy coordination in Eastern Europe, but the topic was already military support for Ukraine. In particular, the supply of air defense to it against the background of massive attacks by the Russian army on military infrastructure.

The countries could discuss the formation of a layered air defense system in Europe, Leonkov believes.

— The fact is that they will have to give something to Ukraine anyway. The classic Patriot air defense system consists of eight launchers. And if we are talking about an average composition, then it can be increased to four launchers. At the same time, it is necessary to organize the interaction of such patriot air defense systems in different countries in such a way that they somehow form a layered defense system in Europe," Leonkov added.

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Moscow is ready to continue bilateral negotiations with Ukraine, but does not see Kiev's interest, the Russian Foreign Ministry says.

Following the meeting of the Weimar Triangle, the parties issued a joint statement in which they announced the continuation of assistance to Ukraine, including the transfer of air defense systems and the need to significantly increase funding, but in the long term.

The countries also discussed the support of Estonia and Romania against the background of incidents involving UAVs, which have recently become more frequent in the airspace of EU countries. For example, on the night of September 10, up to two dozen UAVs were spotted in Poland, which Warsaw called Russian. Moscow denies all charges.

Incidents involving drones have also been observed in Denmark. So, back on September 22, several unidentified UAVs flew near Copenhagen airport. On September 24-25, the temporary closure of air hubs affected Aalburg and Billund. A ban on civilian drone flights has been imposed across the country. The Danish government calls these cases a hybrid attack. The investigation is considering options for launching drones from land or from ships in the Baltic. In addition, at the same time as the Warsaw Forum, the head of the Romanian Ministry of Defense reported on a drone found near the border with Ukraine. The minister blamed Russia for the incident, of course.

Possible transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine

Meanwhile, European countries are trying to drag US President Donald Trump into the conflict, Vinokurov is sure. According to him, earlier the EU countries talked about the need for a military victory over Russia, but now they are trying to fix the current line of contact for Kiev.

— Now they are carefully talking about exactly finding a way in which the wolves will remain fed, as they say, and the sheep are safe. But this cannot be achieved, because events on the battlefield are unfolding in such a way that the whole thing is heading towards surrender. And this is the only way to achieve the goal of eliminating the root causes of this conflict," the expert emphasized.

Not only Europeans are ready to help, at least in words. The other day, US Vice President Jay Dee Vance publicly confirmed that the issue of sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine was being worked out. Earlier, Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky asked for their delivery to the UN General Assembly.

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If the White House decides to do this, it will be a serious step on the part of Washington in recent times. The fact is that these missiles can hit targets at a distance of up to 2.5 thousand km, which greatly simplifies strikes deep into the Russian Federation, but there is a caveat: Tomahawk are launched from ships. The US Army also has medium-range ground-based installations called Mid-Range Capability (MRC) Typhon, but Washington has them in isolated instances. It is very difficult to imagine that the United States will supply Ukraine with such rare weapons or launch missiles from its ships at targets in Russia.

At the same time, according to media reports, the discussion of the topic is still ongoing. The special Representative of the US president, Keith Kellogg, also confirmed that Trump would have the last word on this issue.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly warned that if Western countries target weapons, they will become parties to the conflict. Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian leader, responding to a question from reporters about Tomahawk, stressed that providing them to Kiev would not change the overall situation on the battlefield.