Serious deal: Trump urged Erdogan to join pressure on Russia

Donald Trump called on Recep Erdogan to exert more influence on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine and complained that the Turkish president is now "very neutral." At the same time, the American leader is trying to ensure that Ankara stops buying Russian oil. The two presidents discussed these issues at a meeting in Washington on September 25. Experts point out that Turkey itself is unhappy that the Istanbul talks have been frozen, and therefore seeks to give them momentum. Russia is also interested in continuing negotiations, but it wants to maintain their bilateral format without involving third countries, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. However, Moscow does not yet see any predisposition for dialogue on the part of Kiev, he stated. The role of Turkey in the Ukrainian settlement and the nuances in the relations between Ankara and Washington can be found in the Izvestia article.

Turkey and the Ukrainian settlement

The Ukrainian issue became one of the topics at the first talks between the leaders of Turkey and the United States in six years at the White House on September 25. President Donald Trump noted that his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan could have a "serious impact" on resolving the crisis. It is no secret that Ankara has managed to maintain direct contacts with both Kiev and Moscow.

Turkey's unique position made it possible to resume Russian-Ukrainian negotiations on its territory, which were interrupted in 2022. The last round of these negotiations took place on July 24. Russia considers the bilateral format to be more effective in achieving results in resolving the conflict.

— All major problems are solved in a bilateral dialogue. When the list of participants is expanded, it is not always a good thing — the agenda is blurred and negotiations are simply delayed. We have the experience of the Normandy format," Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador—at-large for crimes of the Kiev regime, told Izvestia. — So far, we do not see any predisposition for negotiations on the part of Ukraine. We have taken steps in the Istanbul format. Turkey had a role here, but it is an organizational one. Turkey is not a party to the negotiations, it has provided its own platform for continuing the dialogue.

The Turkish president also spoke about the need to resolve the Ukrainian crisis at the 80th session of the UN General Assembly in New York. In his speech, he stressed that his country had taken a number of concrete steps to resolve the conflict, in particular, by facilitating the exchange of a large number of prisoners and bodies of the dead.

"We will continue to seek a ceasefire in the coming period,— Erdogan said.

The Turkish president previously pointed out that Ukraine is not able to compete with Russia economically, and Europe will not be able to help Kiev forever. At the same time, it is no secret that Turkey supplied weapons to Ukraine and even built a factory for the production of Bayraktar drones.

"Turkey is unhappy that the Istanbul talks have been frozen — they have not been held for two months, and this harms Turkey's mediation role," political analyst Kamran Hasanov told Izvestia. — The first negotiations in Istanbul were partially promoted thanks to Trump. But, on the other hand, these were the efforts of Erdogan, who advised Zelensky not to miss the opportunity. And partly due to Erdogan's influence, the Ukrainian delegation arrived, despite its preconditions.

At the same time, the expert emphasizes that Turkey is not capable of influencing the Ukrainian authorities alone. The United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom remain Ukraine's key financial and military donors.

But Ankara is interested in continuing the negotiation process on Ukraine. Erdogan discussed this issue with Vladimir Putin in Tianjin, China, on September 1 at the SCO summit. The Russian President thanked Turkey for its participation in the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. Erdogan also said that his country is striving to gradually raise the level of negotiations on Ukraine.

— The conclusion of negotiations by peace is very beneficial to Erdogan. First of all, it is security in the Black Sea region. Secondly, trade is also unsafe now — we periodically see threats of sanctions. European countries also accuse Turkey of illegal trade, and many transactions are forced to follow not the most transparent schemes," Hasanov points out.

Finally, the conclusion of peace agreements in Turkey may help Erdogan win the Nobel Peace Prize, which will have a positive impact on his image as a peacemaker, the analyst emphasizes.

Turkey's active participation in the conflict settlement is becoming more relevant against the background of Donald Trump's recent harsh statements against Russia. In particular, the American leader expressed the opinion that Kiev, with the support of the EU, is able not only to return its territories, but also to "go even further." The Kremlin responded by saying that Moscow takes into account all signals coming from Washington, both publicly and through closed channels. Meanwhile, the Russian Federation stated earlier that Kiev is not demonstrating flexibility and readiness to begin serious negotiations on a settlement, and there is a pause in this process.

U.S.-Turkey dialogue on energy and aircraft procurement

However, the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis is far from the only topic that the leaders of the United States and Turkey discussed. Among others, the fate of the supply of American F—16 and F-35 aircraft to Turkey. U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Thomas Barrack expressed hope that the issue of the supply of F-35 fighter jets will be resolved before the end of the year.

Earlier, the media reported that Erdogan expects to use his warm relations with Trump to lift US sanctions against the Turkish defense industry and sell F-35 supplies. The administration of former US President Joe Biden kept Turkey at a distance partly because of its close ties with Russia. However, Ankara was excluded from the F-35 program back in 2019, during Trump's first presidential term, after Turkey acquired the Russian S-400 air defense systems. However, in the end, the interests of the two countries coincided in Syria, where Ankara and Washington support the new government that came to power at the end of last year.

— I lifted the sanctions [on Syria]. Erdogan was responsible for the victory [in Syria]. It was a victory for Turkey, I lifted the sanctions at Erdogan's request," Trump said after meeting with Erdogan.

The United States and Turkey remain at odds over energy purchases from Russia. So, at a meeting on September 25, Trump demanded that Erdogan stop buying oil from Russia while the Ukrainian conflict continues. At the same time, Turkey has already partially taken some steps towards its American allies. On the eve of the meeting in Washington, the country's energy minister, Alparslan Bayraktar, announced that the state-owned Botas company had signed long-term contracts with the American Woodside Energy and the international trader Mercuria for LNG supplies from the United States. The agreement provides for the supply of approximately 5.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas equivalent to LNG to BOTAŞ. The contract is designed for nine years and will become effective in 2030. At the same time, Turkey continues to purchase gas from Russia via the Turkish Stream pipeline.

Turkey's new agreement on the supply of American LNG was a concession to Donald Trump, Turkish political analyst Kerim Has said in a conversation with Izvestia. Nevertheless, this does not mean that Turkey will abruptly abandon gas purchases from Russia in the coming years.