Position of morals: Britain will try to change the US approach to the Ukrainian crisis

US President Donald Trump is in the UK on his second official visit, an unprecedented event for American leaders. In addition to issues of bilateral trade, the parties will discuss the situation in Ukraine. London stands for continued support of Kiev with weapons. At the same time, the position of the EU and the UK on a peaceful settlement is radically different from the Russian one and does not coincide with the American one. The Europeans insist that peace talks should be conducted after the cease-fire, a diplomatic source in the EU told Izvestia, while the United States allows negotiations without stopping the fighting. The leaders of the United States and Britain may also discuss new sanctions against Russia. At the same time, the EU plans to return to the topic of confiscation of frozen assets of the Russian Federation.

Trump's second state visit to the UK

The head of the White House, Donald Trump, is on his second official visit to the UK from September 16 to 18. He inflicted the first one in 2019, during his previous term. This is an unprecedented case — no head of the White House has ever been honored to visit the Kingdom twice.

It is important to understand that a state visit to the UK is not an ordinary business or work trip, but the highest form of diplomatic reception with all the honors. On September 17, this part of the visit takes place: a solemn meeting at Windsor Castle, a private lunch with King Charles III of Great Britain and a joint flight of the American and British Air Forces.

On the second day, Trump will meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Among other topics on the agenda of the two leaders will be the discussion of tariffs on British steel and aluminum, which London is trying in every possible way to take beyond the trade war. Initially, the leaders were supposed to conclude an agreement on zero tariffs on their exports to the United States, but right before the visit, the deal was frozen, the Guardian reports. Now Starmer is forced to bargain to achieve a "permanent guarantee" of 25% duties on steel and aluminum, which British steelmakers call a "blow" to the industry.

In general, the United Kingdom is traditionally closer to the United States of all European countries. The warm relations between Washington and London are due to historical, cultural and military factors, says Kira Godovanyuk, PhD in Political Science, a leading researcher at the Center for British Studies of the IE RAS.

​​— The author of the idea of a special relationship was British Prime Minister Winston Churchill. The United Kingdom and the United States have become closer both in the issue of defense cooperation and in the issue of intelligence activities. Their relationship was especially high at the military-defense level after the end of World War II, the expert emphasized.

But now the United Kingdom and the United States have few points of contact on a value level. Trump's actions and rhetoric are very different from the leftist course of the British governments. For example, London Mayor Sadiq Khan, right before the visit of the American leader, accused the head of the White House and his entourage of "doing perhaps the most to add fuel to the fire of divisive, far-right politics around the world." Khan also accused Trump of "autocratic methods" and called on Starmer to raise the issue of the conflict in Ukraine more during negotiations.

Trump and Starmer to discuss Ukraine

The topic of Ukraine is already among the topics on which the leaders will "check the clock" at the Chequers residence. Topics for discussion are likely to include the architecture of security guarantees for Kiev, the sequence of steps in a peaceful settlement, and Washington's role in the future security system. All of these are points on which the United States cannot reach an understanding with its European counterparts.

London, as one of the main participants in the "coalition of the willing," promotes the idea of sending troops to Ukraine and expresses its readiness to support Kiev "as long as necessary." Starmer also opposes a truce without preconditions, which is the common position of European countries that support Ukraine. "We need a truce, negotiations, and then peace," a European diplomatic source told Izvestia.

A similar position was expressed by the Embassy of Belgium in Russia. In a message to Izvestia, the diplomats noted that negotiations should follow a cease-fire. The diplomatic mission added that the EU will take a full part in the peaceful settlement.

After negotiations with Vladimir Putin, which took place in Alaska in August, Trump allows negotiations between Kiev and Moscow without a truce, territorial concessions to Ukraine, opposes the entry of the Ukrainian state into NATO and the dispatch of American troops. The head of the White House also forces the Europeans to independently pay for the supply of American weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine using the PURL mechanism.

Over the past year, Starmer has managed to build a good personal relationship with Trump. For the British prime minister, such a connection with Washington is an additional advantage in foreign policy, which he will try to use when discussing Ukraine, said Kira Godovanyuk.

— Of course, Starmer will try to negotiate with Trump on the Ukrainian issue. They will try to somehow get Trump to support their British-French initiative, if not on a practical, then at least on a political level. It is difficult to say how successful such attempts will be, given that Trump also has his own vision of this situation and his own ambitions in this matter, she said.

Godovanyuk believes that among the "coalition of willing" there is no common understanding of what a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine should look like, sending military contingents. She added that Starmer may try to win Trump over on the issue of what a settlement in Ukraine should look like, but he has no arguments in favor of the European option to end the conflict.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on September 17 that Moscow insists on a global agreement on the Ukrainian conflict. Previous truces under the Minsk agreements and a settlement agreement to establish a government of national unity in Ukraine in 2014 have failed, Lavrov stressed.

In other respects, Russia's position has also remained unchanged. Moscow talks about the need to take into account the "new territorial realities", opposes foreign troops in Ukraine and the country's accession to NATO. At the same time, the Russian Federation is not against security guarantees for Kiev, as long as they do not contradict the interests of our country.

The 19th package of sanctions and confiscation of assets of the Russian Federation

One of the topics that Trump and Starmer will discuss may be a further escalation of sanctions against Russia, said Ekaterina Arapova, Deputy Dean for Research and International Cooperation at MGIMO's Faculty of International Relations. The new, 19th package of EU anti-Russian sanctions includes measures against Russian banks, energy companies, the crypto sector and increased restrictions in the energy sector. But the main problem was tariffs against India and China for trade with Russia. Trump publicly demands that Brussels "immediately stop" purchases of Russian oil and gas and impose tariffs, as Washington has done. The EU is trying to synchronize this line with the G7 countries, but so far it has not been possible. As a result, the EU countries postponed indefinitely the discussion of the 19th package due to disagreements within the association.

— Trump's position on the EU is quite definite: he does not want to get too involved in the escalation of sanctions, but he is ready to make money on sanctions. Trump needs Europe to actively accept additional sanctions restrictions, first of all, to abandon Russian energy resources. Trump also expects them to impose secondary tariffs on third countries, also as part of the sanctions pressure on Russia, Ekaterina Arapova said.

The United States benefits from an increase in military contracts and supplies of American energy resources instead of Russian ones. The demand for Europe to abandon energy sources is not an attempt to exert political pressure on Moscow, but Washington's desire to capture the European market and secure long-term contracts for its companies, the expert added.

At the same time, discussions on the confiscation of frozen assets of the Russian Federation have once again intensified in the European Union. According to Bloomberg, EU countries are looking for ways to continue financing the Ukrainian conflict, and Germany fears that if U.S. support decreases, Berlin will bear the brunt. The agency noted that the European Union may decide on assets at the unification summit on October 23-24.

According to Arapova, if Brussels decides to confiscate, it will be a "shot in the head" for him. There is already a crisis of confidence in global reserve currencies in the world. If the EU resorts to the practice of confiscating the assets of a sovereign country, it will turn away a huge number of important investors from it, the expert concluded.