Accept the debt: mortgage and car loan arrears have almost doubled in a year
The level of delinquency on mortgages and car loans has almost doubled over the year: to 95 billion and 35 billion rubles, respectively, Izvestia found out. The deterioration of payment discipline was confirmed by the Central Bank and banks. The market faced the consequences of issuing too risky loans during the credit boom in 2023-2024. In addition, high inflation has eaten up part of Russians' incomes, making it harder for many to pay off their debts. The problem is already threatening to reduce the income of banks. Because of this, they can worsen the conditions for loans and deposits, and also begin to refuse loans even more often. Whether the increase in delinquency poses risks to financial stability is in the Izvestia article.
Why is the overdue debt of Russians increasing?
In the second quarter of 2025, the level of overdue loans owed by Russians has almost doubled compared to the same period last year. This follows from the data of the United Credit Bureau (OKB), which was studied by Izvestia. Mortgage arrears reached 95 billion rubles (the figure jumped by 97%), and car loans — up to 32 billion (plus 85%).
The Central Bank confirmed the deterioration in the quality of mortgage and car loan services in the first half of 2025. The press service of the regulator told Izvestia that the share of loans overdue for more than 90 days for car loans has already reached 4%, and for mortgages - 1.1%.
The decrease in the quality of the loan portfolio was also confirmed by a representative of PSB Bank. The press service of Sovcombank emphasized that the profit of the organization is decreasing due to problem loans against the background of a long period of high key interest rates. Izvestia has sent inquiries to other major market players.
— The quality of debt servicing has deteriorated sharply in the banking market. The accumulation of credit risk occurred throughout 2024," said Mikhail Aleksin, General Director of OKB.
The delinquency rate is increasing due to the maturation of loans issued during the rapid disbursements of previous years, the Central Bank said. According to the regulator, in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024, banks actively provided mortgages to risky borrowers, and there was also a surge in sales in car loans. All this could not but affect the quality of the loan portfolio.
Nevertheless, mortgage and car loan borrowers tend to be more disciplined initially and accumulate a "safety cushion" before applying for a loan, the press service of the National Association of Professional Collection Agencies (NAPCA) noted. Such clients' delinquency means that they are facing serious difficulties or a deterioration in their financial situation.
The cost of goods and services has increased markedly over the past six months, despite the success of the Central Bank in combating their growth, said economist Andrei Barkhota. According to him, this is eating into Russians' incomes, annual inflation in June was still close to 10%, and food prices were even more active. More and more citizens' funds are being spent on consumption, while there is less free money left to service debts.
At the same time, the cost of loans is now very high — real loan rates can exceed 30%. High monthly payments further reduce the solvency of Russians — this creates a "vicious circle" of non-payments, including due to which the share of overdue loans is growing, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
How will the increase in delinquency affect loan conditions
— For banks, the growth of overdue loans on secured loans is bad news, — said economist Andrei Barkhota.
Banks generally earn less on targeted loans because they are less risky and have lower interest rates, which means their mortgage and car loan portfolio incomes are very sensitive to delinquency, the expert said. It is unprofitable for them to sell collateral in the form of housing or a car, because it is done at a large discount, so usually the financial organization tries to negotiate with the client until the last moment and give him the opportunity to continue paying the loan.
At the same time, due to high interest rates, new targeted loans are issued very slowly, which means that high-quality debts do not have time to cover losses on problematic ones, said Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global. This is a factor in favor of lower incomes for financial organizations and, consequently, a deterioration in conditions for banking products.
In general, this trend is already obvious. Banks are rapidly reducing deposit yields — according to Izvestia's latest calculations, they have dropped below 15% on average, while real loan rates, on the contrary, were rising even before the key rate cut and reached 35%.
In addition, mortgage loans are usually the largest — problems with this part of the loan portfolio threaten banks with a noticeable increase in reserve costs. This means that the organization will use the money raised through deposits not to issue new debts, but to secure distressed assets.
All these factors are in favor of making it more difficult to apply for new loans. However, the risk appetite of financial institutions is already very low. According to the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI), the percentage of loan application refusals exceeded 80% in May.
Mortgages and car loans are directly related to housing and transport, so in the worst case, an increase in delinquencies can also deprive people of their property, Vladimir Chernov said.
What is the threat of increased delinquency
Andrei Barkhota suggested that the biggest problems with loan payments may occur in October 2025 - March 2026. In this case, the delinquency rate could potentially double from current values, and banks would be even stricter in choosing who to lend to.
Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global agrees with this scenario. He clarified that even in this case, the share of mortgage arrears will not reach the critical level of 5%, but this situation will still create problems for the banking sector.
At the same time, if the key rate and inflation continue to fall steadily until the end of 2025, the growth in the share of delays may slow down, Vladimir Chernov said. Following the results of the last meeting, the Central Bank has already lowered the rate to 18%, and prices in Russia decreased at the end of last month for the first time since September 2024.
In addition, the regulator has already tightened the rules for issuing mortgages and car loans, and now banks are less likely to approve risky loans, the Central Bank recalled. In the second quarter of 2025, the share of mortgages with a down payment of up to 20% fell to 5% (against 54% at the end of 2022), and with a debt burden above 80% - to 6% (against 47% in 2023). Thanks to these measures, there are fewer delays now than there could be.
"In general, a reduction in the key rate with a lag of one or two quarters will support the economy, and this will stabilize the delinquency rate," said Dmitry Gritskevich, Head of Banking and Financial Market Analysis at PSB.
In the next year and a half, the share of bad loans will depend on the growth of wages and employment, concluded Vladimir Chernov. The more income people have, the easier it will be for them to pay off their debts. It is especially important to completely defeat inflation — if prices start to rise again, people will have to spend more money on basic needs, and it will become more difficult for them to pay off loans.
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