Debt to wait: Russians' mortgage arrears have exceeded a record 100 billion
The mortgage arrears of citizens reached a record 100.6 billion rubles, Izvestia found out. This is due to the fact that Russians are unable to restructure their debts due to the high key. And in 2023 and early 2024, people took out housing loans before the closure of the preferential program. As a result, for some, this burden has become unbearable, and in the worst case, banks can take away the apartment. What to do if you can't pay this month, and whether there are risks in such a rapid increase in delays — in the Izvestia article.
Why has the mortgage delinquency reached its maximum
The overdue mortgage debt of Russians at the beginning of February for the first time reached 100.6 billion rubles (cumulative total). In just a month, the figure increased by 5.7 billion, according to data from the Central Bank (Izvestia studied them). At the same time, the total volume of housing loans, on the contrary, decreased. Since the beginning of the year, it has fallen by 108 billion and amounted to 19 trillion at the beginning of February.
Citizens' mortgage arrears have now really reached a historic maximum — previously, such a level was not recorded even during crisis periods (2008 or 2022), said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
Overdue debts and the number of restructurings are growing in the mortgage portfolio, the Central Bank's press service confirmed to Izvestia. They explained that this is due to the "maturation" of generations of loans issued in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024 under a massive preferential mortgage program. There was a lot of demand back then, including due to the announced stricter conditions for government programs. However, not all borrowers have calculated their strengths.
Citizens who took out mortgages in 2023-2024 were also counting on a future reduction in debt and the possibility of refinancing, said Nikita Kulagin, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Sovcombank. This winter, when the rate reached its peak, many of them began to go into arrears.
In previous years, the requirements for borrowers in terms of down payment and debt burden were at historically low levels, the Central Bank recalled. As a result, at the end of 2023, more than half of housing loans were issued with a down payment of less than 20%. At the same time, almost half of the loans were taken by borrowers with a debt burden index (HDL) of more than 80 (that is, those who spend more than 80% of income on repayment of loans).
After the tightening of the terms of preferential programs in the summer of 2024 and the introduction of new restrictions by the Central Bank on making loans to people with loans, the share of risky loans in mortgages decreased significantly to 10-13%. In this regard, the risks of further delay growth have decreased, the regulator believes.
Vladimir Chernov believes that another reason for the increase in mortgage arrears at the beginning of this year is the high inflation rates in the country and the stagnation of real incomes of the population. He explained that mortgages were taken out massively, not only against the background of preferential government programs, but also in the light of the outstripping growth rates of wages and in the hope that they would continue to rise faster than inflation. However, incomes have now begun to stagnate, and inflation has continued to rise. Therefore, borrowers began to lack money for mortgage payments, the expert explained.
What is the risk of mortgage delinquency?
The increase in mortgage arrears indicates that a "bubble" of problem debts among banks is brewing, Vladimir Chernov emphasized. At the same time, in his opinion, the trend will continue in 2025. The fact is that the unemployment rate in Russia has started to increase, which means that wages will grow more slowly. This will lead to a drop in real incomes of the population against the background of high inflation in the country.
According to Rosstat, the unemployment rate in Russia rose to 2.4% in January after a record low of 2.3% in December. The forecast for the growth of real incomes of Russians in 2025 was lowered to 3.3% (this is significantly less than previous estimates). Budget sectors may suffer the most due to reduced financing, as well as manufacturing industries, because business activity is declining in them, the expert noted.
However, the increase in delinquency is not critical now, and there are no risks to financial stability, says Olga Blednova, an expert on strategic and operational development of financial sector companies. At the beginning of March this year, the share of loans overdue by more than 90 days was only 0.8%, the Central Bank told Izvestia.
And in the future, there are no reasons for a significant increase in delays, Sovcombank believes. High rates attract mainly borrowers who are ready to service an expensive loan. Stricter regulations restrict access to housing loans for those whose debt burden exceeds acceptable limits, Nikita Kulagin explained.
What to do if there is a mortgage delay
A large mortgage delay can threaten a borrower with a damaged credit history, recalled Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global. And this will lead to restrictions on the issuance of new loans over the next 5-10 years. In addition, banks usually charge fines and penalties for late payments, depending on the terms of the agreement, they can reach up to 21% per annum of the debt amount.
When the amount of overdue debt reaches 500 thousand rubles, the risks of selling an apartment by a bank at auction increase significantly, the expert warned.
If the borrower is unable to pay the mortgage for some time, then he needs to contact the bank immediately, Vladimir Chernov reminded. A financial institution usually tries to meet the client halfway in order not to bring the case to court and penalties, because it is more profitable for it to offer refinancing of a loan with a lower monthly payment amount and for a longer period or its restructuring.
The bank can also provide credit holidays. They are usually given for six months if the borrower confirms the loss of income, the expert added.
In 2024, financial institutions received 16.8 thousand applications from citizens for mortgage holidays. Of these, 4.3 thousand applications for 16.3 billion rubles were approved by the Russians, the Central Bank said. They clarified that in 90% of cases, refusals are related to the fact that a person's life situation does not meet the criteria set out in the law. For example, income decreased by less than 30% or the applicant did not provide documents confirming the loss of his job.
In some cases, insurance can also be used (for example, against job loss), Nikita Kulagin from Sovcombank noted. According to him, another option is to sell mortgaged housing. Although demand is limited now due to high rates. In addition, due to the significant gap in the price of primary and secondary housing (due to massive preferential mortgages, new buildings have become significantly more expensive), it is likely that even the sale of real estate will not help to completely close the loan.
In extreme cases, bankruptcy through the courts is acceptable, Nikita Kulagin added. This allows you to write off debts, but will limit the ability to apply for a new loan for a long time.
Also, do not forget that in most cases there is a co-borrower and a guarantor for the mortgage, Olga Blednova added. They are jointly and severally responsible for the loan.
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