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- It's not for you to lend: the financial authorities do not intend to expand the family mortgage
The Ministry of Finance opposes the expansion of family mortgages — there is no reason for this, Deputy head of the department Ivan Chebeskov told Izvestia. In recent weeks, the government has begun discussing the admission of families with children under 18, rather than under six, to preferential loans. However, in February 2025, the program's disbursements already increased, Ivan Chebeskov emphasized. And simplifying conditions will only accelerate the growth of real estate prices, and it will also cost the budget dearly. How necessary it is to support developers in the context of a shrinking market is described in the Izvestia article.
Family mortgage conditions in 2025
There is no reason to expand the family mortgage now, Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov told Izvestia. This issue was publicly discussed at the end of February, when Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak instructed the Ministry of Construction and the Ministry of Finance to consider the possibility of allowing couples with one child under the age of 18 to take out family mortgages.
Izvestia sent a request to the government and the Ministry of Construction about plans to expand family mortgages.
The conditions for a family mortgage were tightened not so long ago. From July 2024, only families with at least one child under the age of six can apply for a loan at 6%. Before that, families with two children under the age of 18 could take it.
In the last quarter of 2024, the possibilities of obtaining a family mortgage really deteriorated. As the deputy finance minister reminded Izvestia, at the end of last year, the cost of funding for banks increased sharply — then the average deposit rate reached 22%, and sometimes there were offers with a yield of 25% per annum. Expensive deposits made it more expensive for banks to issue new loans. As a result, credit institutions began to suspend the issuance of preferential programs, Ivan Chebeskov explained.
Therefore, the government has already made concessions and increased the amount of subsidies to banks for issuing family loans, he added. Until 2025, compensation for lost income under government programs was calculated according to the formula: the key rate (now 21%) + 2 percentage points (23%), and then 6% (in the case of a family mortgage) was deducted from this amount, which is paid by the borrower himself, not the budget. Since January, the refund amount has increased from 2 percentage points to 3.5 percentage points, which has made the issue more profitable.
As a result, family mortgages are increasing significantly in February, which has a positive effect on home sales, Ivan Chebeskov summed up. Data from Dom.RF, the operator of state programs (available from Izvestia), confirms this trend: compared to last year, the volume of mortgage loans for families with children increased by 60% and reached 181 billion rubles.
In addition, in March, the authorities made another relaxation. The press service of the Ministry of Finance reminded Izvestia: now families with two minor children under the age of 18 can use the program even for secondary housing (before that, it was only possible for the primary market) - but only in 35 regions or in small towns with a population of up to 50 thousand people.
According to Frank RG estimates, programs for families with children now account for more than 80% of all housing loans in the country. This means that the government pays for most of the loans issued together with borrowers. At the same time, the difference between preferential and market rates reaches 18.5%, which means that the Ministry of Finance is currently bearing the main debt burden on housing loans in the Russian Federation.
The Accounting Chamber is also concerned about high budget expenditures on preferential mortgages. On March 20, at a meeting in the State Duma, the head of the control department, Boris Kovalchuk, stressed that the authorities plan to spend a large sum to support the housing market. According to the budget for 2025-2027, 1.4 trillion rubles have been allocated for family mortgage subsidies, in particular, 637 billion rubles are provided in 2025. This is comparable to the expected spending on increasing insurance payments to senior citizens (700 billion).
With the expansion of the family mortgage terms, the Ministry of Finance would take on an additional burden, which would only increase the treasury deficit, which already amounted to 1.7 trillion rubles in January. The changes could make the program even more widespread, which would lead to an increase in demand for real estate and allow developers to start increasing housing prices again, said economist Andrei Barkhota.
How will housing prices change in 2025
In the first two months of 2025, 21.4 million square meters were commissioned in Russia. housing market, which is 3.8% more than in the same period of 2024, said Kirill Klimentyev, an analyst at Cifra Broker. However, the situation may worsen due to the high key interest rate (21%), which not only reduces demand for mortgages, but also makes lending more expensive for developers.
"Construction volumes may decrease by 20-30% this year," he believes.
Demand for housing continues to fall — in January it decreased by almost 20% compared to the same period last year, added the "Digital Broker". This indicates serious problems in the real estate market.
The acceleration of demand for housing in the case of the expansion of family mortgages would lead to an increase in real estate prices by 16-18%, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. This is one and a half to two times higher than expected inflation - according to the forecasts of the Central Bank, it will average almost 10% in 2025. Moreover, the price increase will affect mass construction the most, Andrey Barkhota specified.
At the same time, the family mortgage is the only more or less stable source for the market. This program remains the most affordable and, in fact, the only option for buying a home for many Russians, said Vladimir Chernov. Market rates are at a barrier level — according to the latest estimates of Izvestia, they are 29.6% for key market players. The overpayment on such a loan for an average mortgage term of 25 years will be more than sevenfold.
Other government programs are less accessible to Russians. The Far Eastern mortgage is linked to a specific region and is inaccessible to residents of the western and central regions of the Russian Federation, and an IT mortgage has not been issued for real estate in the largest cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg since July 2024.
Developers are in a difficult situation now, but lowering the key rate should lead to an improvement in the situation, said Maria Ermilova, economist at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Experts interviewed by Izvestia agree that this could happen as early as the second half of 2025.
"However, preferential programs have long been discredited: they only inflate price bubbles, which does not help to increase housing affordability," believes the head of the analytical center. Irn.ru Oleg Repchenko.
Nevertheless, a powerful expansion of family mortgages — if the authorities do go ahead with it - will make it more affordable than ever, Andrei Barkhota emphasized. In this case, the program risks ceasing to be targeted — it will not be aimed at supporting fertility, but simply at helping families with children. And this is in the interests of developers, but in the fight against inflation and budget deficits, it will only hinder, he concluded.
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