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- Preferential qualification: the expansion of family mortgages will lead to an increase in house prices up to 20%
Preferential qualification: the expansion of family mortgages will lead to an increase in house prices up to 20%
It is impractical to soften the conditions on a family mortgage now — this may lead to an increase in real estate prices by 15-20%, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. In recent weeks, the government has begun discussing the admission of families with children under 18, rather than under six, to preferential loans. However, the program's disbursements are already actively growing, despite stricter requirements. The volume of loans issued increased one and a half times over the year, to 180 billion rubles in February, according to Dom.RF data. In case of expansion, the family mortgage will cease to be a program to support the birth rate and will become widespread. This is more likely in the interests of developers who want to maintain demand for housing in the face of already high prices and prohibitive loan rates.
Family mortgage in 2025: conditions
A significant reduction in the requirements for borrowers on family mortgages, which has recently been actively discussed by the authorities, can only lead to higher prices. On behalf of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the departments should work out the issue of admitting couples with one child under 18 to family mortgages. In this case, the benefit will become even more affordable than it was before the last changes in mid-2024.
However, the program is already popular. In February, the volume of family mortgage loans reached 181 billion rubles, which is 60% more than in the same period last year, according to data from Dom.RF (available from Izvestia). In total, banks have issued 32 thousand concessional loans — their number has also increased by one and a half times over the year.
At the same time, according to Frank RG estimates, a total of 219 billion rubles worth of mortgages were issued in February — in this case, the program for families with children accounts for more than 80% of all housing loans in the country. At the same time, representatives of the Ministry of Finance previously reported that the target level of the share of state programs is no more than 25%.
Banks have confirmed the high demand for family mortgages. In February, VTB's loans tripled compared to the same month in 2024, doubled at Absolut Bank, and 10 times at Bank Saint Petersburg, representatives of the organizations said.
Starting in July 2024, only families with at least one child under the age of six can apply for a preferential mortgage at 6%. Before that, families with two children under the age of 18 could take it. This has greatly narrowed the number of potential applicants for a family mortgage. Nevertheless, a year later she became even more in demand.
Izvestia has asked the government, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Construction for comments on plans to expand family mortgages. The Cabinet recommended asking these questions to the Ministry of Finance.
How can housing prices rise?
The number of new potential borrowers of a family mortgage in the case of its expansion may number in the millions, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. According to the most recent data from Rosstat for 2021, the number of households with children under the age of 18 was estimated at 15.5 million people, and since then it could grow.
The acceleration of demand for primary housing due to the expansion of family mortgages can lead to a price increase of 16-18%, said Vladimir Chernov. This is one and a half to two times higher than expected inflation - according to the forecasts of the Central Bank, it will average almost 10% in 2025.
"If the program is not expanded, then the price increase is likely to be lower than inflation," Freedom Finance Global clarified.
At the same time, prices for individual facilities may rise even more actively, said Yulia Kovalenko, an economist at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. First of all, we are talking about mass construction, which remains more accessible to the public. The cost per square meter there may increase by 18-27%, said economist Andrei Barkhota.
The Central Bank has repeatedly noted that government programs lead to an increase in the cost of new buildings relative to finished real estate. According to the head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, in the third quarter of last year, the price gap across Russia for primary and secondary housing was 57%.
— The situation in the mortgage market should lead to an improvement in housing affordability, not a price bubble. The benefits of low interest rates should not be eaten up by rising prices, as is happening," the head of the Central Bank said last year.
Elvira Nabiullina has repeatedly stressed that the preferential programs of the Broad Front are appropriate only as anti-crisis measures.
Will couples with children under 18 be allowed to have a family mortgage
It would be impractical to expand the program now, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Disbursements under the program and without easing conditions can grow by a quarter and reach 2.5 trillion rubles by the end of 2025 (against 2 trillion rubles by the end of 2024), said Vitaly Kostyukevich, director of Absolut Bank's retail products department. Therefore, it is important to assess the impact of this measure on the cost of housing and the budgeted costs of the program.
According to the three—year budget law, concessional loans cost 1.4 trillion rubles, of which 637 billion in 2025, Freedom Finance Global recalled. This is a very large sum: it is comparable to the planned spending on increasing insurance payments to senior citizens (700 billion rubles).
If the family mortgage conditions were expanded, the Ministry of Finance would take on an additional burden, which would only increase the treasury deficit, which had already reached 1.7 trillion rubles in January.
The powerful expansion of the family mortgage will make it more affordable than ever, Andrei Barkhota emphasized. In this case, the program risks ceasing to be targeted — it will not be aimed at supporting fertility, but simply at supporting families with children. The massive scale of the program is more likely to meet the interests of developers who are faced with a drop in demand for real estate due to high prices.
In this case, the question arises about the rationality and ethics of using taxpayers' funds to actively subsidize the mortgage market, Andrei Barkhota concluded.
In addition, starting from April 1, family mortgages will be expanded to the ready-made housing market. The measure will apply only to cities with low construction rates. The program is already expanding — further simplification of conditions will only worsen the burden on the budget.
How to buy an apartment in 2025
Nevertheless, Russians now, in fact, have no alternatives for buying a home — a family mortgage, despite its targeting, remains the most affordable option, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. Market rates are at a barrier level — according to the latest estimates of Izvestia, they are 29.6% for key market players. The overpayment on such a loan for an average mortgage term of 25 years will be more than sevenfold.
But other government programs are less accessible to Russians. The Far Eastern mortgage is linked to a specific region and is inaccessible to residents of the western and central regions of the Russian Federation, and an IT mortgage has not been issued for real estate in the largest cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg since July 2024.
At the same time, concessional lending to the housing market will continue to grow in the coming months. The authorities are already softening the conditions. On behalf of the president, the limits on family mortgages were lifted, the analytical center Dom.RF reminded Izvestia. In addition, the level of reimbursement to banks under preferential programs has recently increased.
Until 2025, the reimbursement of lost income under government programs was calculated according to the formula: the key rate (now 21%) + 2 percentage points. (23%), and then 6% was deducted from this amount (in the case of a family mortgage), which is paid by the borrower himself, and not by the budget. Since January, the refund amount has increased from 2 p.p. to 3.5 p.p. — the banks clarified that this made the issue more profitable.
In addition, since March 1, the Central Bank has reduced mortgage macro allowances for borrowers whose debts take less than 70% of their income, Dom.RF added. This allows banks to allocate less funds for reserving housing loans, which makes their issuance more profitable — because of this, they will increase sales.
"As a result, family mortgages may increase by 20-40% by the end of the first period compared to the same period in 2024, even without expanding the program," added Vladimir Chernov.
The effectiveness of preferential mortgages will largely depend on the cost per square meter — now it is an average of 170 thousand rubles, said independent expert Andrei Barkhota. If housing prices at least stop (or even decrease), it will fuel demand better than any government program. In addition, the market will support the reduction in the key rate expected this summer.
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