In January 2025, the number of mortgage transactions decreased by 35% compared to January 2024, VSN Group estimates. As the interviewed market participants told Izvestia, this year the main change in the primary real estate market may concern a revision of the parameters that determine the class of the object. The fact is that developers and developers understand that buyers are willing to give up some of the amenities on the territory of the housing complex in order to save money. This change may also affect the layout of apartments, the market reported. According to the assessment of the HOUSE.In the Russian Federation, in conditions of high mortgage market rates, demand may shift to the secondary housing market. At the same time, there is already a sharp reorientation of the buyer from new buildings to suburban real estate. Details can be found in the publication's material.
Illusions have been dispelled
According to new data from the analytical center DOM.In the Russian Federation (Izvestia has it), at the beginning of the year, demand for new buildings slowed down: in January 2025, sales of apartments for residential buildings amounted to 1.5 million square meters. m. This volume is 19% lower than in the same period of 2024 (1.8 million square meters), but is at the level of January 2023 (also 1.5 million square meters). At the same time, the start of construction of new projects of new buildings decreased by 13% (up to 2 million square meters). This is 13% less than in January 2024. Sales of apartments under construction decreased in January due to the comfort segment and standard housing (1.2 million square meters, -23%). A year ago, demand in this segment was supported by the massive "Preferential Mortgage" program. In the business and elite class, sales correspond to last year's level (246 thousand square meters, +2%).
In January 2025, 1.3 thousand mortgage transactions were carried out in the primary residential real estate market within the borders of old Moscow. This is 35% less than in January 2024, when the figure was 1.9 thousand transactions, VSN Group calculated. Urban project experts note that the demand for mortgage products has significantly decreased, but this has not escalated into an uncontrolled collapse. The cities where housing costs are significantly higher than the national average have been most affected by the refusal of preferential loans. Thus, in Vladivostok, the share of transactions involving bank support decreased by 13 percentage points, in Moscow and Kazan — by 15, in St. Petersburg - by almost 17.
At the same time, for most other large markets, this indicator is measured by 3-7 percentage points. At the same time, the period of mortgage payments has increased almost everywhere. In all major cities, the average values exceed the 25-year mark. By extending the deadlines, consumers hope to mitigate the financial burden.
The market in search of motivation
In July 2024, the State Support program ended, and new restrictions were introduced on other popular types of preferential mortgages. In these circumstances, developers and banks are increasingly resorting to alternative tools to increase customer demand, says VSN Group CEO Yana Glazunova. In particular, you can find subsidized programs from 0.1% for the first year of payments and from 13.9% for the rest of the term, which is significantly lower than the average market mortgage rate, which currently exceeds 21% per annum.
In general, mortgage issuance in Russia decreased by about 55% in January, and even if the Preferential Mortgage program, which was in effect in January last year, is removed from the brackets, the reduction will still be about 30%, said the expert of the direction "Popular Front. Analytics", CEO of the Rating Agency of the Construction Complex (RASK) Fyodor Vylomov.
In addition, a tranche mortgage is still in effect, which allows the borrower to make minimum payments (starting from one ruble per month) before putting the house into operation. Thanks to this, you can buy an apartment in a new building and not bear the double burden immediately after signing the contract: for rent and for monthly loan payments.
A family combo mortgage is also common on the market, in which the bank provides a limit of 12 to 30 million rubles at a discounted rate and lends the difference between this amount and the cost of housing at the market rate. In practice, they most often give out up to 12 million rubles at a rate of 6%, without reducing the commission.
Expert of the Public Council under the Ministry of Construction of Russia, head of ERZ.Kirill Kholopik of the Russian Federation believes that the sequestration of mortgage programs was the only reason for a significant drop in sales of new buildings starting in July 2024.
— Family mortgages are currently supporting the market, he notes. — Users of this program have not felt any changes. Other buyers are forced to adapt to the new conditions. In the first months, there was an expectation of falling prices. Now the illusions have been dispelled, and it has become clear to everyone that prices for new buildings will continue to rise at the rate of overall inflation. Therefore, sales of new buildings are slowly recovering.
According to surveys by the Russian Guild of Realtors, a rate of over 16% on a market mortgage is prohibitive, and many potential buyers who do not qualify for the remaining preferential programs have postponed their purchase until a situation where the monthly mortgage payment can be included in their family budget.
— The average payment on a market mortgage today is about 160 thousand rubles, — says the president of the Russian Guild of Realtors Artemy Shurygin. — In reality, there is a reorientation of the buyer from new buildings to secondary and suburban real estate. The difference in the cost per square meter in a new building and residential housing is over 60% in favor of suburban real estate.
Anastasia Bychkova, director of the department of mortgage lending for suburban real estate at FGC Family, doubts that there will be a shift towards the secondary market, because there also remain protective mortgage rates at an average of 30%. Therefore, rental housing will continue to be popular throughout 2025. Developers, of course, strive to maintain sales and demand by offering special programs, including various installment programs, she said.
— In the premium and elite segments, where the share of mortgage transactions does not exceed 10-15%, demand remains at a high level," added Kristina Dudko, commercial director of the Glincom development company. — Many wealthy buyers, on the contrary, seek to purchase real estate in order to save their savings.
The invisible hand of the mortgage market
In conditions of prohibitive rates on the basic mortgage and restrictions on obtaining installment benefits, developers continue to actively use them to attract buyers. Elizaveta Rodina, head of the Glavstroy Marketing Research and Analytics Department, notes that this is a limited-action tool for a single project, since when buying in installments, the rate of filling an escrow account decreases and risks arise for non-fulfillment of bank covenants (additional obligations that the borrower accepts when concluding a loan agreement). Nevertheless, some innovations have already brought changes — this is the introduction of a mortgage standard, which prohibits an extra charge on the cost of an apartment when subsidizing the rate.
— What does this lead to? To the fact that we see the offer prices on the market (including all margins), from which a discount will be given depending on the terms of payment, says Elizaveta Rodina. For example, if you pay in full, it will be 15%, and if you pay in installments or at a reduced rate, it will be 5-10% for the down payment or the cost of the apartment.
Elina Khannanova, Vice President of Sales at Granel Group, states that the family mortgage is still the engine of sales. Builders and developers are now using auxiliary tools to maintain demand: a tranche mortgage, a reduced payment option. The installment plan is interest-free for up to two years, but is limited by the limits for each of the projects. Under this program, buyers can switch to the mortgage payment form or close the remaining amount in cash.
According to her, for a tranche mortgage, the initial payment is from 20.1%. The rate is fixed for the entire loan term. The program allows you to make symbolic payments in the first year of the loan. This is important for those who rent a house or expect to sell their existing property. The first part of the loan can be from 100 rubles, it is transferred by the bank to the escrow account after registration of the DDU. The second tranche is issued no later than 18 months.
Evgeny Belokurov, Commercial Director of Yandex Real Estate, adds that some developers offer to exchange an old apartment for a new one with an additional payment (trade-in). New financial instruments are also being developed, such as joint programs with banks to provide mortgages on preferential terms. For example, developers enter into partnership agreements with banks, reducing interest rates on loans (for example, to 0.1–5% for the first year).
Natalia Bogomolova, Director of Financial Institutions Ratings at the NRA Rating Service, admits that mortgages as a product are becoming less and less marginal for banks, especially given the high cost of liabilities on long-term horizons, and some banks are abandoning this type of lending altogether in the current environment.
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