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- Forward transportation: the delivery time of goods from the CIS to Russia increased by two weeks
Forward transportation: the delivery time of goods from the CIS to Russia increased by two weeks
The delivery time of goods to Russia through the CIS countries began to grow, Izvestia found out. Delays are most often noted in shipments from Kazakhstan, where customs checks increased the journey by 12 days, and in general it lasted up to one and a half months. This was especially true for electronics and dual-use goods. Customs controls have also been tightened in Armenia, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. Businesses fear that this could lead to higher prices. However, experts are confident that companies have already adapted to such situations and there will be no critical problems with the assortment.
What goods are being slowed down at customs
Recently, shipments from CIS countries to Russia have been delayed due to increased customs checks, business representatives told Izvestia. Such problems are noted in almost all directions — with supplies from Kazakhstan, Georgia, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. Only Belarus is currently operating without delays, said Alexey Razumovsky, Commercial Director of Impaya Rus.
Control at the border of Kazakhstan with other countries has been particularly tightened — delays there reach 5-12 days, said Olga Shoall, Commercial Director of Novasmart. Previously, delivery through the republic took an average of 10 to 30 days, now the time has stretched to one and a half months, Alexey Tarapovsky, founder of Anderida Financial Group, told Izvestia.
The customs services of Kazakhstan inspect almost all cargoes, which is why the average downtime at border crossings has tripled, said Vadim Filatov, chairman of the Delovaya Rossiya Committee on Transport Logistics, co-owner and deputy director of the PEC.
First of all, delays relate to the supply of electronics, but selectively affect other categories of goods, including automotive components and accessories, said Alexey Ivanov, owner of the Alliance Trucks commercial vehicle dealership network. Enhanced control has also extended to dual-use products (that is, those that can be used for military purposes), Olga Shoall noted.
— Special attention is now being paid to technological products — in conditions of a shortage of servers and computing infrastructure, such goods can be used for both civilian and military purposes. Therefore, they are especially watched. But branded items like Gucci or Louis Vuitton bags have been going on and on," explained Alexey Razumovsky from Impaya Rus.
The press service of the Federal Customs Service, when asked by the editorial board whether delays were being recorded there, noted that Russia, Kazakhstan and Armenia are members of the Eurasian Economic Union and have a single customs territory. However, this does not mean that the goods do not pass inspection: when crossing the border in transit from third countries, they can be inspected, especially in the case of dual-use products. Izvestia also sent a request to representatives of these States.
Why are goods delayed in Kazakhstan
Delays at the border with Kazakhstan are caused by a number of factors, said Olga Shoall from Novasmart. Among them are increased control by this republic under the pressure of Western sanctions, a sharp increase in transit flows through the country (by 30%) in 2024, which overloads the infrastructure, as well as the fight against gray import schemes, including undervaluation of goods.
Indeed, the tightening of controls may be related to Kazakhstan's desire to strengthen internal customs discipline and demonstrate transparency of trade flows to external partners, said Alexey Ivanov, owner of the Alliance Trucks dealership network. At the same time, as the expert emphasized, no serious deterioration in relations between the two countries is expected in the long term — cooperation remains stable.
Kazakhstan plays a key role in the transit of goods to Russia — up to 30-35% of shipments pass through it as part of parallel imports, including machinery, components and equipment from Southeast Asia, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. For comparison, Armenia accounts for up to 10% of transit, Georgia for up to 7%, and Belarus for about 20-25%.
Vadim Filatov from Delovaya Rossiya gives similar estimates.: According to him, Kazakhstan provides 20-30% of the total supply, which is due to its advantageous geographical location.
Which countries will import from?
Kazakhstan remains one of the key import routes, especially for auto parts, electronics and household appliances. According to Alexey Ivanov, nevertheless, alternative channels through Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan and directly from China are gradually being strengthened.
The business is considering alternatives, but all of them involve new logistical and legal costs, added Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global. He singled out Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan (as transit hubs), Turkey (sea shipments via Black Sea ports), Georgia (via Poti and Batumi, but with infrastructure restrictions), and Belarus (a stable but congested route) as additional work areas.
— At the same time, the tightening of control may spread to other countries. Among the potential candidates are Armenia, which has already increased the inspection of high—tech goods, Georgia, which is under pressure from Western partners, Turkey and the UAE, where difficulties with settlements and transportation have begun to arise, Vladimir Chernov believes.
The container terminal of the port of Olya in the Astrakhan region is the final destination on the Russian territory of the North-South international transport corridor
However, new routes are already actively developing. In particular, the North–South transport corridor is being worked out, and China, bypassing Kazakhstan, is building its own railway network, which Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan may join in the future, said Sergey Sokolov, Vice President of Opora Russia. If necessary, it is also possible to reorient supplies, including through Mongolia due to the long common border with Russia, added Anastasia Priklyova, Associate Professor of the Department of International Business at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
What are the risks of delayed deliveries?
Delays at customs affect delivery times and may cause temporary shortages in certain niches, especially in the electronics and automotive components segment, Alexey Ivanov believes. This, in turn, can increase prices for consumers — the increase in price can reach 10% due to increased logistical costs and lower capital turnover.
However, the cost of imports is affected not only by logistics, but also by currency fluctuations, rising insurance tariffs, and informal payments for speeding up border crossings, added Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global.
— There are no supply disruptions yet, but there is a risk that there will still be a temporary shortage of certain goods in warehouses. Especially for small and medium-sized businesses operating with limited volumes. At the same time, cars are less susceptible to risks, since they are supplied through more stable channels," said Alexey Ivanov.
Due to downtime at the border, carriers lose up to 20,000 rubles per day, said Vadim Filatov from Delovaya Rossiya. According to him, in the first five months of the year, the cost of logistics increased by 25% in annual terms. Also, violation of deadlines threatens businesses with fines, especially from retailers, and reduces the profitability of transportation. For perishable goods, delays carry an even greater risk.
However, Russian business has already adapted to such situations over the years of sanctions pressure, said Dmitry Kuznetsov, a researcher at the Presidential Academy. In addition, delays of one to two weeks are in most cases uncritical, added Anastasia Priklyova from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Also, according to her, importers form stocks, which helps to avoid disruptions in shipping within the country.
"The increase in costs due to transport downtime does occur, but it will be minimal per unit of production," she said.
The expert recalled that similar problems with transit through Kazakhstan had already arisen in 2022, but were quickly resolved. The situation is probably stabilizing now according to a similar scenario.
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