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- From the gate to the turnaround: every fifth cargo carrier has left the Russian market
From the gate to the turnaround: every fifth cargo carrier has left the Russian market
A crisis has begun in the cargo transportation market: since last autumn, every fifth player has left the industry. Companies are unable to pay lease payments and are returning trucks — this puts the entire transportation market at risk, which may eventually lead to higher tariffs. The Avtogruzex Association asked the government to compensate the leasing payments and provide preferential loans. According to the organization's calculations, the total amount of financial support requested is about 19 billion rubles. Read more about the situation in the industry in the Izvestia article.
Why did transport companies start to leave the market
At the end of autumn, transport companies — enterprises and individual entrepreneurs — began to leave the market and hand over equipment to lessors. The peak occurred in the winter of 2024-25. The Avtogruzex Association reported that by the end of the first quarter of this year, every fifth player left the industry — many shippers reduced the pool of carrier partners by 20% year-on-year, due to both economic difficulties and cargo shortages.
The number of seized trucks has more than doubled compared to the beginning of 2024, Alfa-Leasing Group reported.
According to the Gruzavtotrans Association, about 30% of Russian transport workers have stopped business due to debts and inability to pay lease payments. The main problem of carriers is the subsidence of pricing below cost and high leasing rates, Vladimir Matyagin, president of the association, told Izvestia. For example, in mainline transportation, the tariff of the lower payback limit ranges from 100 rubles per 1 km, but in reality prices have dropped to 45-50 rubles per 1 km.
In the dump truck and bulk cargo market, with the cost of transportation at 5.5 rubles per ton-kilometer, prices dropped to 3 rubles per ton-kilometer, the expert noted.
— The same prices were 15 years ago, — said Vladimir Matyagin. — Transporters overload dump trucks, they carry 60-70 tons at a rate of 32 tons, for which they receive heavy fines. Lease payments sometimes reach up to 50% of the price of a car, which is why business stops and cars are withdrawn.
Many members of the association closed last year with a negative profitability of -17%, he added.
At the first failure of payment, leasing companies seize equipment, an industry source told Izvestia. Tractors just stand idle on the sites and do not work. According to Avtogruzex, at the moment, more than 20 thousand units have accumulated in the drains. These are mainly Chinese mainline tractors and dump trucks FAW, Shacman, Howo and Sitrak.
— The peak of the seizure growth was reached in late 2024 – early 2025 and will begin to decline from the second quarter, — says Nikolay Fomin, Director of Sales Department at Gazprombank Autoleasing. — This situation was the result of a decrease in the solvency of customers against the background of an increase in the key rate, an increase in recycling, a reduction in infrastructure projects, and other things.
In his opinion, expensive loans have led to stagnation or decline in the business of many companies, and consequently, the need for trucks has decreased. According to the new technology, leasing sank the most in the truck and trailer segments, where the negative trend reaches 60-61%, the expert added.
"In February, we contacted Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and proposed measures to support the industry," Vadim Filatov, president of the Avtogruzex Association, told Izvestia.
In its letter to the Cabinet of Ministers, the Association, in particular, asked in 2025-2026 to defer payments on contributions to extra-budgetary funds for two years, compensate for leasing contributions in the amount of no more than 30% under contracts of 2023-2024, provide preferential loans of up to 500 million rubles for investment purposes at a rate of 13.5%, as well as gratuitous subsidiesand employee compensation. According to the organization's calculations, the total amount of requested financial support for the industry reaches 19 billion rubles.
Izvestia sent inquiries to the government, the Ministry of Transport, and the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
What can the trucking crisis lead to?
— Leasing companies actively sell their own stocks of seized and returned equipment with discounts of up to 20% on dump trucks. Today, more than 70% of used vehicles from our fleet are being re—leased," said Nikolai Fomin from Gazprombank Autoleasing. — And these are the new realities of the market. It is likely that many such organizations will soon compete with large dealer holdings specializing in the sale of used cars.
Eduard Mironov, Director of procurement of transport services at FM Logistic in Russia, told Izvestia that among the company's partners there are those who handed over new leased trucks and stayed working on their old equipment, drastically reducing the volume of traffic. But there are also companies that have completely left the market or those that have been absorbed by major players. The market is undergoing a transformation, indicating a crisis in the existing transportation model, the expert noted.
According to Vadim Filatov, the transformation of the industry in a negative scenario without government regulation may lead to market monopolization, tariff increases and higher consumer prices in the second half of the year.
"Due to the growing expenses of cargo carriers for the purchase of spare parts and car maintenance, fuel payments (an increase of 30% by the end of 2024), the number of industry representatives in 2025 may decrease by 10-15%," said Larisa Kasyanova from Alfa-Leasing Group.
According to her, sales of trucks may decrease most significantly in the first half of the year — by 20-25%. However, starting in the middle of the year, thanks to the current subsidy for domestic wheeled vehicles from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, demand may recover. Especially if the Central Bank reduces the key rate in 2025, the expert noted.
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