Request for time: the delegations of Russia and Ukraine postponed the date of negotiations

Ukraine is trying to delay negotiations with Russia, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The meeting of representatives of the two countries in Istanbul scheduled for May 15 has been postponed to the next day. Despite this, the Russian delegation is determined to be constructive and find ways to resolve the conflict, said Vladimir Medinsky, head of the negotiating group and Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation. Zelensky also sent a delegation to Istanbul, led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. At the same time, Kiev continues to refuse to discuss territorial issues, hindering the negotiation process in the hope of changing the US position. About how the dialogue between the Russian Federation and Ukraine in Istanbul can begin, see the Izvestia article.

When will the talks between Russia and Ukraine take place in Istanbul

The meeting of the delegations of the Russian Federation and Ukraine did not take place on Thursday in Istanbul, negotiations may take place on Friday, May 16. Moscow and Kiev have declared their readiness to start a dialogue. The Russian delegation is determined to be constructive and seek ways to resolve the conflict, Vladimir Medinsky, head of the negotiating group and assistant to the President of the Russian Federation, told the press.

— We are ready to resume the Istanbul negotiations, we are ready for possible compromises and for their discussion. We have a working attitude, the leadership of all interested departments is present here in the delegation," said the head of the negotiating group of the Russian Federation.

According to the Anadolu agency, a quadrilateral meeting of the delegations of Russia, Ukraine, the United States and Turkey may take place in Istanbul on May 16. However, according to other sources, representatives of the Russian Federation and Ukraine will hold talks in the presence of only the delegation of the host country.

A delegation from Russia arrived in Turkey on the morning of May 15 and was awaiting the arrival of representatives of Ukraine. But on this day, our negotiating group only held a meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

Vladimir Zelensky flew to Ankara on the afternoon of May 15, where he met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. At a press conference after the dialogue, he even announced his readiness for direct negotiations with Russia and sent a delegation to Istanbul. However, the head of Ukraine immediately made a sharp statement that he did not intend to recognize the territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, as well as the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, as Russian. The Ukrainian side as a whole is not going to discuss territorial issues.

Zelensky's statements are unacceptable to Russia, and if Ukraine does not change its position, it resembles an attempt to disrupt negotiations. The Russian Federation cannot discuss its territorial integrity; instead, Moscow intends to focus on the issues of Ukraine's neutral status, reducing the size of the Armed Forces, and protecting the rights of the Russian-speaking population and the Orthodox Church on Ukrainian territory. First, it is necessary to eliminate the root causes of the conflict, Vladimir Shapovalov, Deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University, told Izvestia.

Territorial principles: how the dialogue between Russia and Ukraine can begin

And what is capable of disrupting the first direct negotiations in three years?

The Ukrainian negotiating group was headed by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. It is noteworthy that he was part of the delegation from Kiev at the negotiations in the spring of 2022, when Umerov was a deputy of the Verkhovna Rada. The Ukrainian group consists of 12 people, including the deputy heads of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the SBU, and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The strategy of the Russian Federation is clear — negotiations without conditions, that is, discussion of the entire range of problems without exception. The speeches of our officials always mention the "deep causes" of the conflict in Ukraine, so the Russian side does not accept any restrictions, Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.

"Ukraine's strategy at the current stage is to delay the settlement process," the expert said. — Kiev hopes for a slow evolution of the Trump administration in the issue of support for Ukraine — the pressure of the EU countries, the UK and the Papal see is being used for this.

Towards nightfall, Vladimir Medinsky stated: From 10 a.m. on May 16, the Russian delegation will be waiting for the Ukrainian side, which is due to arrive at the meeting. He stressed that representatives of the Russian Federation are ready to work and have arrived in Istanbul for direct bilateral talks with Ukraine without preconditions.

What role does the United States play in the negotiations?

Although it was originally planned that negotiations would take place between Russia and Ukraine, according to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, part of the American delegation arrived in Istanbul. Another part of it, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is in Antalya, where an unofficial summit of NATO foreign ministers is taking place. The head of American diplomacy said he would meet with the Turkish Foreign Minister and the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul on May 16. The United States expects the Russian and Ukrainian delegations to agree to a "comprehensive cease-fire."

The role of the United States is very important at the moment — Washington has taken on the task of working out compromises on the political part of the settlement, including issues of NATO expansion and sanctions. The Americans' calculation is based on the fact that if they manage to agree on the main thing, then it will be easier to find common ground on the rest of the range of problems. This role cannot be called mediation — the United States is still supplying weapons to one side of the conflict and maintaining sanctions against the other, which violates the principles of neutrality of international mediation.

Moscow understands this, and therefore Russian diplomacy brings some of the issues under discussion into the format of bilateral negotiations with the United States. This is also understood in Kiev, which determines the strategy of delaying negotiations — the sooner the current structure collapses, the sooner a return to "Euro-Atlantic solidarity" and bipartisan support for Ukraine during the Biden era is possible, Ivan Loshkarev summed up.

In turn, the American leader said that he was not disappointed with the composition of the Russian delegation and was considering the possibility of a personal visit to Istanbul if there was progress in the negotiations between Moscow and Kiev. And he immediately stressed that "nothing will happen" on the issue of resolving the Ukrainian conflict until his meeting with Putin takes place. However, the Kremlin has no plans to prepare for such talks in the coming days, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

How did the parties approach the negotiations in Turkey

On May 11, the Russian president proposed to Ukraine to resume direct negotiations without preconditions. Vladimir Putin appointed presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky as the head of the Russian delegation, and he also headed the Russian negotiating team in 2022. It also includes Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Igor Kostyukov and Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin.

In addition, a team of experts was formed, including Alexander Zorin, First Deputy Head of the Information Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Elena Podobreevskaya, Deputy Head of the Presidential Office for State Policy in the Humanitarian Sphere, Alexey Polishchuk, Director of the Second CIS Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Viktor Shevtsov, Deputy Head of the Main Directorate for International Military Cooperation of the Ministry of Defense.

Before the departure of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Putin held a meeting dedicated to the preparation of the upcoming negotiations with Ukraine. Russia's priority is long—term peace, as stipulated in the relevant instructions to the members of the delegation, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.

The composition of the Russian group is absolutely logical, since the position of the Russian Federation is that we continue the conversations that were interrupted by Kiev three years ago. The Russian delegation has experienced negotiators representing all the necessary structures, and they are competent people. At the same time, the competence of the Ukrainian negotiators remains unknown, as well as the scope of their powers, Vladimir Shapovalov believes.

Moscow and Kiev launched the negotiation process immediately after the start of their negotiations. At that time, in addition to Vladimir Medinsky, it also included the deputy heads of the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Alexander Fomin and Andrei Rudenko, the head of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, Leonid Slutsky, the Russian Ambassador to Belarus and the Russian envoy to the Contact Group on the Settlement in Donbass, Boris Gryzlov.

Season two: Can Russia and Ukraine move closer to peace at a meeting in Turkey

All interested parties are planning to gather in the republic under various pretexts this week.

The Ukrainian side was initially represented by Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov, Adviser to the head of the Presidential Office Mikhail Podolyak, First Deputy head of the Ukrainian delegation to the Contact Group Andrey Kostin, MP Rustem Umerov (since September 2023 — Minister of Defense of Ukraine) and Deputy Foreign Minister Nikolai Tochitsky. The head of this delegation was the leader of the faction of the ruling Servant of the People party, David Arahamia.

The first three meetings were held in late February and early March 2022 in Belarus, Gomel region and Belovezhskaya Pushcha. At the end of March 2022, new negotiations between representatives of the two countries took place in Istanbul at the Dolmabahce Palace. Vladimir Medinsky said at the time that Moscow had received from Kiev for the first time "the principles of a possible future agreement fixed on paper." The draft provided for Ukraine's non-aligned status and security guarantees. According to the Russian president, these agreements were initialed in Istanbul by the head of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation.

However, then Kiev actually withdrew from the negotiations, putting forward new demands. In November 2023, David Arahamia said in an interview that former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (who served in 2019-2022) had banned Kiev from signing peace agreements with Russia following talks in Istanbul and demanded the continuation of hostilities against Russia.

This mistake cost heavy losses among the Ukrainian military and had devastating consequences for Ukraine.

— The terms of the peace agreement offered to Ukraine today look much worse than the peace agreement that was close to adoption in the spring of 2022. Agreeing to the current terms would most likely mean the end of the military-political leadership of Ukraine and Zelensky himself, since three years ago they rejected a peace agreement on much better terms," Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.

On the other hand, Kiev's attempts to avoid direct negotiations promise Ukraine bad prospects in the international arena, where it risks losing Washington's support, he concluded.