Season two: Can Russia and Ukraine move closer to peace at a meeting in Turkey
Russia and Ukraine can make progress in resolving the conflict at a new meeting in Istanbul, Konstantin Kosachev, Vice Speaker of the Federation Council, told Izvestia. Earlier, Vladimir Putin proposed resuming negotiations in Turkey on May 15. The Ukrainian side stated that it first expects a 30-day truce from May 12, but after Donald Trump's call to "immediately" agree to a meeting, Vladimir Zelensky dismissed the truce demand and declared his readiness to fly to Istanbul. Meanwhile, the American president also allowed a visit to Turkey if it would be useful for negotiations. On the same dates, an informal meeting of the NATO Foreign Ministers will be held in Antalya. Whether "Istanbul 2.0" will take shape is in the Izvestia article.
Will there be a meeting between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul
Ukraine, under pressure from the United States, is rapidly changing its position after Vladimir Putin's proposal to resume negotiations in Istanbul without preconditions on May 15. At first, immediately after the Russian president's statement, Vladimir Zelensky replied that he expected the Russian Federation to agree to a "full, long—term and reliable" 30—day truce from May 12, and only then Kiev would be ready for meetings for negotiations with Moscow.
Washington reacted immediately. Donald Trump called on the Ukrainian side to "immediately agree" to this proposal. According to the head of the White House, at the meeting in Istanbul, Moscow and Kiev will be able to determine whether it is possible to conclude an agreement on a peaceful settlement of the conflict. Otherwise, Europe and the United States will know "what everything is based on" and will be able to "act accordingly," Trump concluded. Against this background, Zelensky stopped demanding a cease-fire and announced that he would come to Turkey.
— There was the experience of the first Istanbul, and these negotiations were moving forward until some point. It is known that mutual understanding was reached on a large number of positions and the document was initialed by the head of the Ukrainian delegation before it was pulled back. <...> But if the Ukrainian delegation appears at these talks with a mandate to abandon some ultimatums and seek common ground, I am sure that we could move forward. even further than it was done in March 2022," Konstantin Kosachev, Vice Speaker of the Federation Council, told Izvestia.
Of course, there is a point in such negotiations, but already in the conditions of Istanbul 2.0: over these three years, the situation on the line of contact, and the overall situation of Ukraine, looks completely different compared to what it was two years ago, the senator noted.
The Kremlin and the Russian Foreign Ministry have not yet commented on the potential meeting in Istanbul. Meanwhile, Deputy Minister Sergei Ryabkov discussed with Turkish Ambassador to Russia Tanju Bilgic the interaction between Moscow and Istanbul within the framework of multilateral mechanisms.
Vladimir Putin personally, by the way, did not rule out that during the negotiations it would be possible to agree on a new ceasefire, despite the fact that Ukraine did not observe all previous truces announced by the Russian side. Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov clarified that negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul should take place taking into account the real situation and the developments of the 2022 negotiations. At the same time, the composition of the delegation is still unknown: Ushakov promised to announce it later.
Zelensky said that Putin would be waiting in Istanbul, but there are many reasons for their face-to-face meeting, for example, the decree of the Ukrainian leader dated September 30, 2022, which prohibits negotiations personally with "President of the Russian Federation V. Putin." At the same time, Zelensky and the head of the office, Andriy Ermak, later stated that the decree did not actually prohibit such negotiations by the president or specially authorized persons. There are no such exceptions in the text of the document.
However, the controversial decree may be canceled by May 15, especially if the head of the Russian Federation agrees to the meeting, putting it forward as a condition. Then Washington may very likely step in again.
—Istanbul was proposed by Moscow as a venue for a meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations at the technical level, but not at the level of heads of state," Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia. — Zelensky can travel from Kiev to Turkey just to make another PR move. This theatrical performance is being played out, of course, for Trump. What can be called a PR victory in Europe is perhaps a demonstration that they cannot forge this victory either on the diplomatic track or on any other.
Important meetings are initially considered to be handled at a technical level, because otherwise they will lead to nothing and will become just a TV show. Apparently, this is what the emphasis is on: once again to disrupt the negotiation process and put himself in a better light in front of Washington, the expert added. It is important to note that Moscow does not consider Zelensky to be a legitimate president — his term of office expired back in May 2024. Therefore, Vladimir Putin can legally refuse to meet, which is probably what Kiev expects in order to throw off responsibility for the negotiation process.
In general, it is difficult to imagine such an early organization of a meeting at such a level, which underlines a certain theatricality in the statements and actions of the Ukrainian side. For example, the talks between Putin and Trump are still in the preparatory stage, despite the fact that the first conversation between the leaders took place three months ago.
Why are the foreign ministers of NATO member countries meeting in Turkey?
An informal meeting of the NATO foreign ministers will also be held in Turkey on May 14-15. It is worth noting that it was planned before Vladimir Putin's proposal to resume negotiations in Istanbul, and the geography of the meetings does not coincide much. The Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the North Atlantic Alliance countries will meet in Antalya. Nevertheless, arguments on the topic "all coincidences are not accidental" could not be avoided.
In particular, the head of the State Department, Marco Rubio, is going to the meeting, who so far does not often indulge even official "gatherings" of Western high-ranking officials with his presence. For example, in April, Rubio was the first to cancel a trip to London to negotiate a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine after Zelensky's statement about his refusal to recognize Crimea as Russian.
Marco Antonio Rubio
Against this background, the visit of the US Secretary of State to Turkey may not look accidental. Moreover, Senator Kosachev suggested that this meeting was organized to support Ukraine. Officially, it is devoted to preparations for the June NATO summit in The Hague, where member countries must decide to raise the minimum threshold for military spending, so the participation of the Ukrainian side is not envisaged. It is likely that Vladimir Zelensky is counting on contacts on the sidelines in some way.
At the same time, his decision to agree to a meeting in Istanbul, bypassing the preliminary ceasefire, puts Kiev's Western allies in an awkward position. The day before, a number of EU countries in unison insisted on a 30-day truce, which should be followed by negotiations. This idea was supported, for example, by China, but Beijing rather expressed approval of any peace initiatives in general. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian, the country approves of "all efforts aimed at achieving peace," and the only way out of the Ukrainian crisis is dialogue and negotiations.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump's call for Kiev to "immediately" agree to talks with Russia in Istanbul has jeopardized other European plans, namely to convince the United States to impose new sanctions against Russia if Moscow rejects peace initiatives. The European Commission is discussing the introduction of restrictions on Nord Stream 2, and they intend to introduce further restrictions in the UK. Washington has so far shown considerable restraint and even loyalty. By the way, Trump said that he was considering the possibility of flying to Istanbul if it would be useful for negotiations on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
