Taming the fire: why it is beneficial for Kiev to disrupt the three-day truce
Kiev wants to disrupt the festive parade on Red Square in order to create the appearance of Russia's isolation, experts interviewed by Izvestia said. The Russian Federation has declared a ceasefire for the period of Victory Day celebrations. The three-day truce began on the night of May 8 and is scheduled to last exactly three days. At this time, the Russian side stops all hostilities. The silence regime is similar to the one that was set for Easter at the end of April. But Kiev has not yet confirmed its participation in the new truce and demanded a complete cease-fire for 30 days. At the same time, Ukraine continues its provocations and over the past day has carried out the largest UAV attack of all time — the Russian air defense system shot down 524 drones.
A three-day truce has entered into force.
Vladimir Putin's initiative for a three-day truce in honor of the 80th anniversary of Victory remains in force and started on the night of May 7-8. This happened despite large-scale attacks by Ukrainian drones on the eve of the holiday. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that no new instructions had been received on how to respond to Kiev's provocations.
— Our position on the truce is well known. All instructions have been given, there are no new elements here," he said, commenting on the possibility of using the Oreshnik missile system in response to attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Peskov also called for taking into account the "dangerous neighborhood", indirectly hinting at threats from Ukraine, and asked to understand possible restrictions on the operation of the mobile Internet in the capital from 7 to 9 May.
The decision on the truce is dictated by humanitarian considerations. The Russian side stops fighting, expecting a similar step from Ukraine, but Kiev not only refused to join the initiative, but also demanded a 30-day ceasefire. At the same time, the Ukrainian forces conducted the largest drone attack during the conflict a day before the start of the "silence regime": according to the Russian Defense Ministry, the air defense shot down 524 drones, five Neptune missiles, six JDAM bombs and two HIMARS shells.
Such actions have become part of Kiev's strategy, which has been actively using jet—powered drones to attack Russian infrastructure from Tatarstan to the Krasnodar Territory since the beginning of 2024. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are fighting not with the army, but with civilians, trying to intimidate them and make them bow their heads, military expert Viktor Litovkin said in an interview with Izvestia.
By declaring a truce, Moscow is trying to create conditions for dialogue, but is facing a demonstrative escalation. At the same time, the Russian Federation turned into a global platform at the time of the celebration on May 9: leaders of dozens of countries, including China, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Serbia, Cuba and Venezuela, arrived in the capital. The total population of the countries whose representatives will be in Moscow these days exceeds 4 billion people, and their share in global GDP reaches 37%. For Russia, this is not only a tribute to the victory in the Great Patriotic War, but also a demonstration of international support in the face of sanctions.
However, instead of a constructive response, Kiev stated that it "cannot guarantee the safety" of foreign delegations, hinting at possible attacks. "They want to disrupt the parade in order to create the appearance of Russia's isolation," Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, explains to Izvestia.
— No key decisions on the settlement will definitely be made before May 9. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces launch large-scale attacks on this day, what kind of sanitary zone, a 30-day truce can we talk about in the future? Why is Kiev uncompromising on this issue? For them, May 9 is a matter of Russia's international prestige. If Kiev had managed to disrupt the holiday, then in this way it would have demonstrated the weakness of the Russian Federation and all those who visited it," Blokhin said.
Prospects for a Ukrainian settlement
On the eve of the holiday, Ukrainian forces intensified attacks on border regions and Moscow. On the night of May 6, air defense shot down 19 drones flying towards the capital, and in the Bryansk region, more than 140 air targets, including a cruise missile, were destroyed in a day. Vyacheslav Gladkov, Governor of the Belgorod Region, reported 80 downed drones and 273 shells fired at populated areas.
"The situation on the line of contact is tense,— Viktor Litovkin states. — Ukraine has not accepted the truce and will provoke. If they decide to strike at Red Square, there won't be a wet spot left of Kiev.
The expert also warned about the risk of terrorist attacks and the activity of Ukrainian agents in Russia, noting that Moscow is ready for attacks, but the threat remains for the regions.
Washington, despite the harsh rhetoric of Donald Trump, is trying to balance. U.S. President's special envoy Keith Kellogg said Kiev was proposing a 30-kilometer demilitarized zone along the front line, but the Kremlin called such initiatives "unofficial." Dmitry Peskov noted that Russia had not received Kiev's proposal from the Americans about Kellogg's readiness to freeze and create a demilitarized zone.
Trump, calling Russia's exclusion from the G8 a "very bad decision," at the same time declares that the time has passed for Moscow to return to the club. This is stagnation and even degradation of negotiations, Konstantin Blokhin believes.
The United States is apparently not ready to discuss the root causes of the crisis, and the EU continues to arm Kiev. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, calls for speeding up Ukraine's accession to the EU. Kiev is not ready to abandon plans to join NATO.
Analysts see various aspects as the reasons why Russia retained the idea of a truce.
— The date is round, there are many foreign guests, there is no need to create tension around their visit to a country that continues to wage hostilities in Donbas. Secondly, after the conclusion of the agreement on the resource deal between Kiev and Washington, it was necessary to show that Moscow was still ready for negotiations, that Moscow did not see a big problem in strengthening US-Ukrainian relations through possible cooperation in the extraction and development of natural resources, the associate professor of the MGIMO Department of Political Theory told Izvestia. Russian Ivan Loshkarev.
In addition, there are still hopes for informal agreements, although Ukraine violated the last Easter truce almost 5,000 times. Kiev feels the support of the West and does not want to make concessions, Blokhin notes.
The prospects for a settlement depend on two factors: Russia's ability to protect its red lines and the West's willingness to admit its mistakes towards Russia. While Washington is focused on domestic reforms and the EU is focused on economic crises, the conflict risks prolonging indefinitely.
— Two factors are currently hindering the peaceful settlement. Firstly, the EU continues to resist agreements regarding sanctions and closing the prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine. Secondly, the American side does not yet have an understanding of how to approach the issues of cultural, linguistic and religious policy in Ukraine. This topic was sidelined at one time due to the discussion of economic issues, but was again raised by the Russian side," Loshkarev stressed.
At the same time, as the expert emphasizes, the very fact that the dialogue with the United States continues is a positive sign. The question is whether the parties have enough political will to turn this "half-open door" into a path to peace, rather than another dead end.
On the eve of Victory Day, Izvestia has prepared a special project "Two Worlds. One War", dedicated to the history of the confrontation between the USSR and Germany from the mid-30s to the mid-40s of the last century.
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