Crisis epicenter: Moscow expects clear actions from Kiev to de-escalate the conflict

On the night of May 8, the truce announced by the President of the Russian Federation during the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the Victory should begin to operate. Moscow is waiting for Kiev to take concrete actions aimed at de-escalating the conflict, the Kremlin said. At the same time, Zelensky not only rejected this proposal, but also stated that he "does not guarantee the safety" of foreign leaders who will visit the Russian capital on Victory Day. Meanwhile, the United States is in the process of reassessing its mediation role in the Ukrainian conflict. The White House is annoyed by the position of the Ukrainian president on the recognition of Crimea. If negotiations do not lead to success, Washington may suspend its diplomatic efforts, US President Donald Trump said on May 4. The question of whether Kiev is capable of dialogue and whether the United States can completely withdraw from the settlement process is in the Izvestia article.

Zelensky began to annoy the White House

Washington is demonstrating changes in its approach to the Ukrainian settlement: the United States is moving towards a pragmatic mediation model, linking peace initiatives with concrete calculations. As the Washington Post reported, the White House is annoyed by the refusal of the Ukrainian leadership to discuss territorial concessions. Kiev, according to the newspaper, insists on a complete cease—fire as a first step - without prior concessions.

Particular irritation, as the newspaper notes, was caused by Vladimir Zelensky's unwillingness to allow the possibility of recognizing Russian sovereignty over Crimea, a topic that Washington, according to WP, planned to discuss on April 24 in London at a meeting with European allies and representatives of the Ukrainian delegation.

According to the publication, the United States offered to consider a compromise option: recognizing Crimea for Russia in exchange for Ukraine receiving international security guarantees. This idea did not receive support from Kiev, after which President Donald Trump criticized Zelensky's position. According to him, the refusal to recognize Crimea as Russian hinders progress towards a peace agreement with Moscow. American lawmakers are also starting to change their rhetoric. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that "a return to the borders of 2014 is impossible," and this is another indicator of a shift in the American approach.

The prospects for negotiations between Moscow and Kiev are now extremely doubtful, says Vladimir Brovkin, an American historian and former lecturer at Harvard University. In his opinion, even if they do begin, they are unlikely to lead to a visible result.

- Zelensky has made it absolutely clear that he is not going to recognize either Crimea or Donbass. Like a madman, he repeats the same theses: "no one can forbid us to join NATO and we have the freedom to arm ourselves," the expert said in a conversation with Izvestia.

The Russian president is much more experienced in diplomacy, he stressed. While Trump, according to the source, does not demonstrate consistency and stability.

Brovkin believes that even if Ukraine abandons the idea of joining NATO, there is no guarantee that this topic will not come up again. An acceptable option for Russia, in his opinion, would be the signing of an international agreement on the neutrality of Ukraine with the participation of the United States, the EU and the guarantor represented by the United Nations.

Simultaneously with the diplomatic maneuvers, the United States does not abandon attempts to influence Russia: according to the Reuters news agency, Washington has prepared a new package of sanctions against Russia, including in the banking and energy sectors. However, its implementation depends on the decision of Trump, who can use sanctions as a tool of pressure on both sides of the conflict.

When will the truce come into effect

Russia, by decision of President Vladimir Putin, announced a truce during the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the Victory. It should be valid from midnight on May 7 to midnight on May 11. As Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the head of state, explained, the purpose of this step is to check Kiev's readiness to find ways to resolve the conflict peacefully.

"Of course, we will wait for final statements, not ambiguous ones, and most importantly, actions aimed at de-escalating the conflict during the holidays," he stressed.

Earlier, Moscow had already proposed to introduce a truce regime for Easter - from 18:00 on April 19 to 00:00 on April 21. However, despite the fact that Kiev publicly agreed with him, the Ukrainian side, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, committed almost 5,000 violations.

If Ukraine really wanted peace, it would stop shelling Russian cities and not commit aggressive actions, Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. According to him, negotiations are beginning to stall, and the patience of the American side, despite Trump's rhetoric, is running out. The expert suggests that attempts to resolve the situation will continue in the next month or two, but ultimately they will lead to nothing. As a result, the United States may come out of the conflict with nothing, and Ukraine will be forced to demonstrate its determination to continue fighting, because this is the only way it can receive financial support from Europe and retain American aid.

This time, Kiev rejected Moscow's proposal for a truce during the May holidays. As reported by the France-Presse news agency, referring to a journalist who was present at Zelensky's speech, the Ukrainian leader said that he "cannot guarantee the safety" of foreign guests if they come to celebrate Victory Day in Moscow.

In response to these statements, Robert Fico, the Prime Minister of Slovakia, sharply criticized them.

- This is unheard of. I reject such threats. Ensuring the safety of the participants is a matter for Russia. Zelensky is mistaken that foreign delegations will not arrive in Moscow. I will go to Moscow to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the Victory," the Slovak leader said.

Zelensky's statements against the Victory Day truce are a direct threat to the leaders of foreign countries who are going to Moscow for the celebration. This was announced on May 3 by the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova. According to her, Zelensky "unequivocally threatened world leaders," as well as veterans who would attend the celebrations.

In 2025, the Parade will be attended by high-ranking guests from many regions of the world. Chinese President Xi Jinping, South African Defense Minister Angelina Mocekga, Brazilian President Lula da Silva, and foreign leaders will arrive in the Russian capital. The leaders of the CIS countries will take part in the celebrations in Moscow. The event is expected to become one of the key international venues in spring 2025.

Rare Earth Resources Deal

Meanwhile, on May 1, a bilateral deal between the United States and Ukraine on cooperation in the field of natural resources was signed. According to Yulia Sviridenko, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Ukraine, the agreement provides for the preservation of control over the subsoil by the Ukrainian authorities, but at the same time opens up the possibility for American investments through a specially created fund. As part of the agreement, the United States can send funds for the supply of air defense systems, Sviridenko said.

Vladimir Zelensky, in turn, said that he expects additional supplies of air defense systems from the United States as one of the elements of the implementation of the agreement. A vote on the ratification of the treaty in the Verkhovna Rada is scheduled for May 8. Ukrainian MPs, according to parliamentarian Yaroslav Zheleznyak, consider the document as a strategic step capable of consolidating the US presence in key sectors of the Ukrainian economy.

— On April 30, when the first 100 days of Donald Trump's presidency struck, he got what he so badly wanted — the agreement on rare earths signed by Kiev. In light of the fact that most of these resources are located in the territories annexed by Russia, it seems increasingly unlikely that the United States will accept Moscow's demands for a complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from four regions," Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.

According to the expert, if a peace agreement is not reached soon, Russia may face increased American pressure. It can take various forms, from providing new military aid packages to Kiev to imposing sanctions and high duties on countries that continue to purchase Russian oil.

In an interview with NBC News on May 4, the US president admitted that Washington could withdraw from the negotiation process on Ukraine if it finds it impossible to reach an agreement on the settlement of the conflict. At the same time, Trump noted the achievement of great progress in negotiations on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine on one side and less on the other. He did not specify which side of the dialogue was more successful.