Territorial principles: how the dialogue between Russia and Ukraine can begin
The issues of collective security and ownership of territories may become central at a meeting of representatives of the Russian Federation and Ukraine in Turkey, the Russian parliament told Izvestia. Direct talks between Moscow and Kiev are expected to resume in Istanbul on May 15. On the evening of the 14th, Vladimir Putin approved the composition of the Russian delegation, which will be headed by Presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky. The most difficult issue is likely to be territorial, according to the expert community. It is possible that the parties may also discuss the exchange of prisoners of war and the return of residents of the Kursk region forcibly detained in Ukraine. The European Parliament is already calling on the Ukrainian leadership to support the negotiation process and follow a "realistic path" to peace.
What can Russia and Ukraine talk about?
For the first time in three years, Russia and Ukraine may resume direct negotiations on the settlement of the conflict. Representatives of the countries are expected to meet on May 15 in Istanbul, where the previous cycle of contacts was interrupted in 2022. Moscow has repeatedly stated its readiness for dialogue with Kiev, and without preconditions. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said that Russia intends to discuss both political and technical issues with Ukraine.
On the evening of May 14, it became known that Vladimir Putin signed an order "On the composition of the delegation of the Russian Federation for negotiations with Ukraine." It will be headed by Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Medinsky, and will also include Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Chief of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Igor Kostyukov and Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin. The composition of experts for negotiations with Ukraine has also been approved. Among them are Alexander Zorin, First Deputy Head of the Information Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Elena Podobreevskaya, Deputy head of the Presidential Administration for State Policy in the Humanitarian Sphere, Alexey Polishchuk, Director of the Second CIS Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Viktor Shevtsov, Deputy Head of the Main Directorate for International Military Cooperation of the Ministry of Defense.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks at the Russian-Ukrainian talks at Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul, March 29, 2022.
According to media reports, the Ukrainian delegation will include head of the presidential office Andriy Ermak, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga and Presidential Adviser Ihor Zhovkva.
— In my opinion, we have every reason and opportunity to be consistent and to conduct a conversation from the standpoint of defining approaches to the problem of collective security. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is part of other big problems. Unfortunately, it will not be possible to resolve these issues only at the level of the Russian Federation and Ukraine," Dmitry Novikov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia. — This is the beginning of negotiations that can continue to escalate.
The politician does not rule out that the parties will be able to agree on the preparation of proposals for a document, which, in particular, will outline approaches to territorial issues and the cessation of hostilities. By the way, the previous negotiations ended with the initialing of the Istanbul agreements. The annex to the document listed restrictions on weapons and troops for Kiev. In addition, it contained provisions on permanent neutrality and guarantees of Ukraine's security.
Earlier, Yuri Ushakov stressed that negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul should take place taking into account the developments of the 2022 negotiations and the real situation. At that time, the territories of the LPR, DPR, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions were not officially part of the Russian Federation. Thus, the territorial issue may become one of the central ones.
"These territories are constitutionally ours," Vladimir Jabarov, first deputy chairman of the Federation Council's international Affairs committee, told Izvestia. — They became part of Russia based on the results of referendums held in each of the four regions. And if Ukrainian troops remain there, it will be an occupation.
Officially, the Ukrainian authorities do not recognize that they are ready to give up part of the territory. However, last year, Vladimir Zelensky noted that Kiev is not capable of returning Crimea by military means. Earlier, US President Donald Trump said that the peace deal on Ukraine implies that the peninsula "will remain part of Russia." At the same time, Kiev expects to return Crimea "through diplomatic means" in the future. In addition, the Ukrainian authorities are apparently not yet ready to recognize the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions as part of Russia.
At the same time, back in June last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin listed the conditions for the start of peace talks with Ukraine: the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, as well as Kiev's abandonment of plans to join the North Atlantic Alliance.
"Judging by official statements, it will now be a priority for Russia to ensure the neutral status of Ukraine, if possible, to limit its armed forces," Alexei Fenenko, professor at the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University, told Izvestia. — The main problem, of course, will be the status of the territories.
The territorial issue may become one of the factors that will stop the peace process, the analyst believes. Other factors may include Ukraine's unwillingness to engage in real negotiations, as well as continued military support from the West.
A new exchange of prisoners of war and the return of Russian citizens in Ukraine are also likely to be among the topics of the dialogue. The other day, the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of the Russian Federation reported that Kiev intends to delay the return of residents of the Kursk region to Russia. According to the SVR, the Kuryans, who were taken out by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, are called a "valuable asset" by Vladimir Zelensky's entourage. In April, the Commissioner for Human Rights in the Russian Federation, Tatiana Moskalkova, said that Ukraine was illegally detaining 52 civilians in the Kursk region.
— Three operations have already been carried out to repatriate Russian citizens — about 100 people. As far as we know, there are still several dozen people in Sumy awaiting repatriation. I know that Ms. Moskalkova and the Ukrainian authorities are discussing this," Boris Michel, head of the delegation of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Russia and Belarus, told Izvestia.
The Kiev regime continues to pursue the course of integration into NATO, which directly contradicts the national interests of Ukraine itself and the principles of Russia's security, said Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada, former member of the presidential party "Servant of the People" Artem Dmytruk, who was forced to leave Ukraine in 2024.
— Everyone who really wants peace, and does not participate for the sake of chatting, should do everything to free Ukraine from the terrorist government and hold elections under strict international control. Only then will we be able to talk about real contracts and real prospects," he said.
The politician noted that the entire civilized world talks about everything except the main thing: it does not want to discuss the root causes of the conflict and Moscow's position. "But then, excuse me, how can we negotiate if one of the parties is simply ignored?" asks the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada.
The West retains military support for Ukraine
The resumption of negotiations in Istanbul coincides with a two-day informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Antalya, which runs from May 14 to 15. Its main topics are preparations for the June summit of the alliance and increased defense spending. Of course, the Ukrainian conflict and further military assistance to Kiev are also among the priority issues.
Since the beginning of its military operation, Ukraine has received military aid from Western countries in the amount of over 130 billion euros, the Kiel University of World Economy estimated earlier. The United States remains the main military donor, while the European Union is seeking to increase military support. The other day, Brussels announced the allocation of almost €2 billion to Kiev from the profits from frozen Russian assets. European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius called for doubling military aid from the EU and the United States to €80 billion per year. At the same time, he recalled that the countries of the union have a new tool to help Ukraine: they can use defense loans to finance military purchases for Kiev.
"Our governments have sent billions of euros in military and economic aid, and countless Europeans have shown solidarity by helping Ukrainian refugees in need. But this situation can't go on forever. We cannot indefinitely support a war that has no end in sight," MEP Milan Mazurek told Izvestia. — The EU should encourage President Zelensky to be open to negotiations and follow a realistic path to peace.
David Arakhamia, head of the Servant of the People faction in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, during Russian-Ukrainian talks at Dolmabakhce Palace, March 29, 2022
By the way, Great Britain, in particular, called on Ukraine to stop negotiations with Russia in 2022. In November 2023, David Arakhamia, a member of the Ukrainian delegation and leader of the Servant of the People faction in the Verkhovna Rada, admitted that Kiev was ready to sign the agreement, but former Prime Minister Boris Johnson convinced him not to do so, saying it was better to continue fighting with Russia. Vladimir Putin said that the Ukrainian authorities had thrown the document "into the dustbin of history" after the Russian side decided to withdraw troops in the Chernihiv region and from Kiev as part of efforts to de-escalate the conflict.
"In my opinion, it was a big mistake on the part of the West to stop the previous Istanbul peace talks in 2022, but I hope that this time everyone will understand their urgency and the need to reach an immediate peace agreement,— Romanian MEP Diana Shoshoake told Izvestia.
The Taurus long-range missile
However, the "war party" in the West retains its influence. The other day, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that there could be no peaceful settlement in Ukraine "dictated by Moscow." He had not previously ruled out the possibility of transferring Taurus long-range missiles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. France and the United Kingdom are still not abandoning the idea of sending their military to Ukraine as peacekeepers. By the way, the special representative of the American president for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, said that the United States is discussing the deployment of European peacekeepers in the country west of the Dnieper River after the end of the conflict. According to him, the military of France, Germany, Great Britain and Poland may be involved in the mission. However, the latter was quick to refute Kellogg's words. Russia has repeatedly warned that such a step would only lead to an escalation of the conflict.
Finally, the EU continues to impose sanctions on Russia. On May 14, the union announced the 17th package of restrictions. Commenting on the introduction of the latest restrictions, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrault said it was necessary to block Russia from the ways it used to circumvent Western sanctions and "take it by the throat."
From left to right: Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio
It also remains unclear what role the United States will play in the new negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which, after the change of administration in the White House, began to position itself as a mediator. Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff said that he and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Istanbul only on Friday, May 16. At the same time, Washington has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the negotiations if there is not enough progress in them. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva expressed his support for the peace process. During the technical stop of the Brazilian special flight in Moscow on the way from China, he spoke on the phone with Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader expressed gratitude to the leaders of Brazil and China for their sincere desire to make a constructive contribution to the search for ways to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.
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