Infernal horror: hundreds of thousands of people will die due to the heat wave by the beginning of 2027

The intense heat caused by the El Nino climate phenomenon could lead to a sharp increase in deaths in the coming months. The death toll, according to the researchers' forecasts, will be in the hundreds of thousands of people. Countries in Africa and Asia are at risk. For more information about the future climate of the planet, see the "Izvestia" article.

How many people may die due to the heat in 2026-2027

Extreme heat could cause 451,000 additional deaths worldwide from June 2026 to February 2027. This forecast was presented on September 23 by the Climate Impact Lab research group at the University of Chicago. Scientists attribute the expected increase in mortality to the heat amid the intensifying El Nino.

These 451 thousand people are a forecast, not the number of already registered victims. The researchers estimated how much temperature-related mortality could exceed the figure for the corresponding months of a typical year. They used data from 1996-2025 as a comparison base. Of the total estimate, about 239,000 additional deaths occur in September 2026 - February 2027, that is, for the six months for which the seasonal weather forecast was compiled. The period from June to August is also included in the overall assessment.

Photo: TASS/Zuma

The forecast concerns precisely the effects of the heat. Possible deaths as a result of fires, floods and droughts, which can also be facilitated by El Nino, are not included. At the same time, the total number of victims of the heat depends on how the weather develops and what protective measures the authorities will have time to take. The authors of the report expect that the danger will continue after February if the impact of El Nino continues in the spring and summer of 2027.

The work has not yet passed an independent scientific review. As CNN explains, the researchers decided to publish the preliminary results before completing this procedure so that countries have time to prepare. Raquel Nunez, a health and environmental expert interviewed by the TV channel, called the estimate plausible for the model, but urged not to take it as an accurate prediction of the number of deaths.

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What is El Nino, why does the temperature rise because of it?

El Nino is a natural phase of the climate cycle in which the surface waters of the central and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. Changes in ocean temperature affect atmospheric processes and can change the weather thousands of kilometers from the Pacific Ocean. Some regions are more likely to experience heat and drought, while others are more likely to experience heavy rains and floods. The phenomenon usually develops over several months, and its effects can be felt even after passing the peak.

The current El Nino is intensifying. The World Meteorological Organization reported on September 3 that it is likely to reach very high intensity by the end of 2026. According to the WMO, the probability of El Nino remaining until February 2027 is close to 100%. At the same time, the organization emphasizes that the strength of the phenomenon itself does not determine how severe the consequences will be in a particular country. Other climatic processes also affect the local weather.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Andrey Erstrem

El Nino is not caused by global warming, but it is developing against the background of the already increased temperature of the planet. According to Climate Impact Lab calculations, in the coming months, the average land temperature, taking into account the population distribution, may be about 1.2 degrees above normal. Researchers also expect 44% more days of extreme heat than in a typical year. These indicators describe the overall forecast picture. They do not mean that every city will face the same warming.

The authors of the report compare the expected conditions with the temperature that climate change, according to their models, can make habitual in two decades. Therefore, they consider this season as a test of countries' readiness for a hotter future. Not only the temperature on the thermometer is important for human health, but also the duration of the heat, the availability of cool rooms and the ability of medical services to quickly help those who endure the heat more than others.

Which countries will be most affected by El Nino

The researchers predict the largest number of additional deaths from heat in the period from September 2026 to February 2027 in Nigeria - 31.4 thousand. This is followed by Indonesia — 19.3 thousand, Sudan — 17.5 thousand, India — 15.8 thousand and Brazil — 13.3 thousand. For the four Sahel countries — Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad — the total estimate is 66.8 thousand. These country indicators relate to a six-month period and are included in the mortality estimate for the entire period from June to February.

Photo: REUTERS/Marvellous Durowaiye

The preparation time varies from State to State. According to the researchers, in Nigeria and Indonesia, a significant proportion of additional deaths may occur in December and February. For Brazil and India, the risk also remains in these months. But, as the authors of the report warn, India and Pakistan may be affected by the heat after the end of the current six-month forecast, in the summer season of 2027. These estimates will need to be clarified as the data is updated.

The effects of El Nino are not limited to heat-related deaths. Earlier, the Associated Press reported on the growing threat of drought to Asian countries and risks to agriculture. However, such prospects cannot be automatically added to the Climate Impact Lab forecast. It reflects a certain indicator — additional deaths related to temperature — and is calculated using a separate methodology.

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How to protect people from extreme heat

The authors of the report believe that timely measures can save tens of thousands of lives. First of all, we are talking about warnings about dangerous heat. They give hospitals, social services, and residents themselves time to prepare. Targeted assistance is also important for people who find it particularly difficult to avoid exposure to high temperatures, including those who work outdoors or do not have access to a cool room.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Polina Violet

Among other measures, the researchers cite the availability of drinking water and cooling centers, the protection of workers, monitoring the condition of vulnerable residents, and the readiness of the healthcare system to handle an increase in the number of referrals. According to the authors, decisions should be made taking into account local forecasts relevant to a particular region.