It's stuffy to live: abnormal heat as a new economic norm in Europe
Western Europe is experiencing an unprecedented climate shock. In France, Germany, Belgium and Spain, extreme, previously unseen temperature readings are recorded. Economists have already started calculating losses, but this is not the only problem — European experts, one by one, come to the conclusion that record heat every summer is likely to become a new climatic norm for a number of countries. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
The weather nightmare
The heat wave in Europe has already ceased to be an exclusively humanitarian crisis and is turning into a macroeconomic factor. The deviation from the climatic norm in June reaches 5-10 degrees on average. In France, the night of June 22-23 was the warmest since the beginning of meteorological observations in 1947. Record temperatures were recorded in Bordeaux (+41.9 degrees) and Poitiers (+41.2).
"Red" danger level ("threat to life") It was introduced in 49 of the 96 mainland departments of the country, where 35 million people live. More than 1,300 schools are closed, and every tenth commuter train in the metropolitan department has been canceled. Experts state that the infrastructure is simply not designed for temperatures above +40 degrees.
At least 18 people have died so far, including two children who were found unconscious in a car.
France's state-owned energy company (EDF) has announced plans to continue reducing electricity production at four nuclear power plants due to overheating of the water in the Rhone and Garonne rivers.
In addition, it was reported that about 68,000 households and other facilities in the Finisterre department in western France were left without electricity on Wednesday due to a transformer substation failure.
Italy has also declared a "red" danger level: 16 cities are at risk, including Rome, Florence, Milan and Naples.
Spain's weather services have reported that the highest average June temperature in the country since 1950 has been recorded. In some regions, the air warms up to 47 degrees. The Aemet agency warned of "exceptionally high" temperatures day and night and also declared a "red" alert level in the Basque Country, where up to +40 degrees is expected in San Sebastian - twice the seasonal norm.
In Germany, mass events across the country are already being canceled. By the end of the week, +40 degrees and above are forecast there.
In the UK, a national record of +39 degrees is also expected in June.
Meanwhile, experts warn that such weather will soon cease to be considered an anomaly. This has already happened in 2022 and 2025, but then the scale was more modest. In this regard, the head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Ghebreyesus, stated the need for the European authorities to adapt to the new reality. "The heat wave in Europe is leading to school closures and endangering people's health. The statistics are clear: temperatures across Europe are rising almost twice as fast as the global average, which increases the possibility and severity of extreme heat in the future," he said.
However, according to economists at insurance giant Allianz, despite the fact that heat waves are coming earlier and becoming more difficult, no European country is ready to respond to such large-scale threats.
Energy collapse and economic losses
The direct effects of the heat are already having a significant impact on the economy and energy sector. High temperatures reduce the efficiency of solar panels and combined-cycle power plants (losses range from 0.5% to 0.9% of capacity per degree Celsius), while dramatically increasing demand for air conditioning. This leads to an unprecedented increase in electricity prices: Belgium and the Netherlands have recorded historical highs of 1038.25 euros per MWh and 902.47 euros per MWh, respectively. Near-record values are observed in Germany (€747.10 per MWh) and Denmark (€786.83 per MWh).
According to Allianz analysts, extreme heat is becoming a structural economic risk. It reduces labor productivity (by about $1.3 per hour for each degree above the range of 30-35°C) and simultaneously increases energy consumption (by 1.2% for each additional degree). The cumulative GDP losses of the most vulnerable EU countries in 2026-2030 may reach 5-7%, or $240 billion for France, $147 billion for Italy, $131 billion for Germany and $120 billion for Spain. The University of Mannheim (Germany) has estimated that last year, climate disasters "pulled" an amount of 43 billion euros from the economy of the European Union.
As for the current situation, according to a study conducted by the Climate Analytics center, the combination of abnormal heat and drought over the past week and a half has already led to a decrease in the average income of European households by almost 3%.
European agriculture is under double pressure: due to the heat, the harvest of grain and fruit in the south of the region is under threat, and rising fuel and electricity prices may lead not only to a new wave of farmers' bankruptcies, but also to increased inflation. In May last year, experts from the European Central Bank in a special report called the problem of access to water the largest natural risk to the eurozone economy.
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