Plus or minus: El Nino may lead to abnormal heat in European Russia and winds in the Far Eastern Federal District

A record-breaking powerful and prolonged El Nino could lead to dramatic warming in Western Europe and the European part of Russia, and to increased monsoons in the Far East, climatologists say. The day before, the World Meteorological Organization published a forecast according to which the phenomenon caused by abnormal heating of water in the Pacific Ocean is 100% likely to persist until February. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres urges countries to prepare for extreme consequences that could occur almost anywhere in the world. According to experts, humanity can only improve the accuracy of climate forecasts.

Record-breaking El Nino

The ocean-atmospheric phenomenon El Nino, which, according to scientists, may become the most powerful in the entire history of observations, can cause dramatic warming in Western Europe and the European part of Russia, Sergei Gulev, head of the laboratory at the P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. However, according to him, El Nino is a global phenomenon affecting the climate of the entire planet, so it is extremely difficult to accurately predict its consequences for individual regions.

— El Nino can cause a dramatic warming in European Russia or Western Europe, but it is very difficult to say where exactly this will happen. This is determined by how the phenomenon affects the zonal flow and how its blocking is formed. There may be an increase in monsoon activity in the Far East, but we also do not know its extent," he said.

Since the temperature anomalies associated with El Nino are now very high and continue to intensify, the phenomenon will have a significant impact on the upcoming winter season, the specialist emphasized.

The day before, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published a newsletter with a forecast that the current episode of El Nino has already fully formed, will peak and become very strong by the end of the year. According to the WMO forecast, the phenomenon is highly likely to persist until the end of February 2027. A colossal reservoir of warm water has formed in the ocean column, which will support El Nino throughout the winter. In some areas of the Pacific Ocean in July and early August, the water temperature at a depth exceeded the norm by more than 8 degrees.

El Nino is a natural phenomenon that is not related to human activity. It occurs periodically, about once every 2-7 years, and is characterized by an increase in water temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This, in turn, affects atmospheric processes, precipitation and temperature in different regions of the world. Climatologists consider the current level of heating of the Pacific Ocean to be abnormal even for El Nino.

— This phenomenon can cause a devastating blow to the population and economy in all corners of the world. We are already witnessing severe disruptions and the devastating effects of droughts and floods, and we expect these effects to intensify as the El Nino phenomenon intensifies," said WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo.

Forecast of consequences

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also warns that El Nino can lead to emergencies around the world.

— El Nino is gaining strength right before our eyes. Science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and these waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, global temperatures are steadily rising, and the world is at risk of extreme weather events. There is now a race between rising risks and our commitment to taking action to combat climate change and protect people. We have to win this race," he said.

El Nino is one of the most powerful climatic phenomena affecting the planetary circulation of the atmosphere. It actively interacts with the monsoon, and its effects manifest themselves in different regions of the world in different ways. The stronger the phenomenon, the more extensive its effects can be. Scientists have already proven that El Nino can cause dramatic climate changes in North America: droughts or abnormally heavy rainfall, as well as weather anomalies in Southeast Asia and South America, including changes in precipitation patterns in Brazil.

— We also expect strong anomalies. The mechanisms of their formation are being investigated, and there are many statistical results. However, there are significantly fewer physically proven results," said Sergey Gulev.

Super El Nino is a phenomenon in which this natural phenomenon has been observed for two years in a row. The current episode also differs in duration: the fact that the phenomenon that began in the summer will persist until February is considered quite rare. During this period, an abnormally large amount of heat accumulates in the ocean, which affects the global average temperature. At the same time, humanity does not have the opportunity to directly influence these processes, experts say.

— It remains only to develop forecasting systems for El Nino and its consequences, including those related to seasonal responses to it. The phenomenon itself is predicted quite well, but its consequences are much worse. Much is being done for this in the USA, Europe and Russia. We have a national climate model of the Institute of Computational Mathematics. It is quite good, and we will now be able to see the degree of its reliability in predicting responses," the climatologist explained.

After February, El Nino is likely to weaken: it will first enter a neutral phase, and then the reverse process will begin, he added.

According to oceanologist Alexander Osadchiev, the forecasts of experts can be trusted, since El Nino is well studied. This is one of the key processes of the Earth's climate system, affecting it on a multi-year scale. Semi-annual forecasts are almost always reliable. The phenomenon affects the weather and precipitation in different regions of the world, and through them, the yield and volume of fish caught.