Chocolate is getting cheaper in Russia and coffee is getting more expensive. And here's why

After six months of continuous decline, the price of chocolate in Russia began to reflect the previous decline in global cocoa prices. However, this trend may turn out to be temporary: the exchange value of cocoa and coffee is rising again. What may affect the price of chocolate and coffee products in the second half of 2026 is in the Izvestia article.

Delayed effect

• In Russia, the cost of chocolate has been decreasing for six months in a row: since January, 1 kg of chocolate has become cheaper by 1.7%. If at the beginning of the year the average price was 1554.06 rubles per 1 kg, then in June it decreased to 1527.87 rubles.

• This dynamic is related to the fall in world prices for cocoa beans (we wrote more about the decline in quotations and the reasons for this process here). In January–June, they decreased by about 16% to $4.16 thousand per ton. However, retail prices usually change with a delay of several months, so the decrease in the cost of chocolate has only become noticeable now.

• In February 2026, global cocoa prices dropped to their lowest level since June 2023: May 2026 futures fell by about 0.9%, to $3,000 per ton. The pressure on the market was exerted by weak demand, as well as the growth of cocoa bean stocks in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire. These two countries provide about 60% of the world's raw material production. Compared to the record of December 2024, when the price exceeded $12.9 thousand per ton, cocoa lost more than 70% of its value.

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• Falling prices have created problems for the largest producers. In Ghana, the government purchase price for farmers in the 2025-2026 season decreased by almost 30% due to lower global prices and weak buyer interest.

• At the same time, demand from chocolate factories decreased as manufacturers began to use less cocoa and replace it more often with other ingredients, such as nuts. The improvement of weather conditions in exporting countries had an additional impact, which increased yields and increased the supply of raw materials on the world market.

• In addition to Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, major producers include Indonesia, Nigeria, Cameroon, Ecuador and Brazil. However, the cocoa market remains one of the smallest among commodities, and its dynamics directly affect food producers, confectionery companies, and retailers.

Changing coffee prices

• Along with the cost of cocoa, coffee prices also decreased. Thus, the price of robusta coffee steadily decreased from August 2025, when it reached $4.8 thousand per ton, until July 2026. The main reason was the establishment of favorable weather in Brazil, which provides about 40% of global exports. An increase in supply on the market led to a drop in stock prices.

• At the same time, even if global coffee prices decrease, the cost of drinks in coffee shops usually remains the same or even increases. The reason is simple: the price of a cup depends not only on the cost of grain. Its share in the cost is on average 10-20%. However, the costs of rent, salaries, milk, packaging, utilities, and taxes continue to rise. That is why the short-term decline in stock prices for coffee has almost no effect on the cost of drinks for customers. So, in January-February 2026, the volume of takeaway coffee sales in Russia decreased by 3% year-on-year, but the average receipt increased by 8%, reaching 233 rubles.

• Prices for Arabica and robusta coffee returned to growth in July 2026: they showed dynamics of 10% and 8%, respectively (about $7.5 thousand and $4 thousand per ton). Coffee is becoming more expensive due to the projected decline in yields and exports in Vietnam and Indonesia due to the El Nino phenomenon. Another reason for the price increase is the small stocks of coffee in certified warehouses. In addition, there is a risk of frost in the southern regions of Brazil. However, if supplies are stable, the exchange value of coffee may gradually decrease.

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• Global coffee prices have increased approximately fourfold over the past five years. The main reasons were periodic crop problems in the largest producing countries. Also in Vietnam, some farmers have switched to durian cultivation, so the supply of coffee has decreased.

• At the same time, the price increase was accelerated by market participants themselves: against the background of high demand for coffee around the world, some suppliers broke contracts in order to sell the grain at a higher price. Manufacturers also held stocks in anticipation of further price increases. Additional impact is provided by news about weather risks, which increased expectations of a shortage and supported the growth of stock prices.

• Prices are also rising due to high global inflation and a steady increase in demand. Consumption is now increasing rapidly, particularly in China, India and Indonesia. The growth of household incomes in these countries increases global demand.

Influence on Russia

• Russia occupies about 5% of the global coffee market, and it accounts for more than 60% of the country's hot drinks market. The expert community predicts an increase in the price of raw coffee in the next five years by about 10% annually. However, the strengthening of the ruble can partially compensate for the growth of global quotations.

• The rise in prices of coffee and cocoa increases the costs of Russian producers. Since the beginning of 2026, prices for cocoa butter, cocoa mass and cocoa powder have increased by 10-20%, but so far companies are using stocks and existing contracts. However, if the trend towards an increase in the cost of raw materials continues, selling prices may increase in the second half of 2026.

• Some producers try not to raise prices by producing coffee with various flavorings. In the case of chocolate, companies sometimes replace some of the cocoa with cheaper ingredients and reduce the weight of packages.

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What does this mean?

• The period of declining chocolate prices in Russian stores may come to an end by autumn. The retail market reacted with a delay to the cheaper cocoa beans at the beginning of the year, but now the global stock exchanges are already adding new risks to the cost of raw materials.

• If the price growth continues in the coming months, companies will begin to transfer additional costs to the cost of chocolate, chocolates and some coffee products in the second half of 2026. At the same time, the rate of price change will vary from brand to brand, as much depends on raw material stocks, contract terms, and manufacturers' purchasing policies.

When writing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:

• financial advisor and founder of Rodin.Alexey Rodin's Capital;
• managing partner of Walnut Capital Artem Motorny.