Shadow cup: Coffee labeling will trigger a surge in the "grey" market
Hundreds of Russian producers and importers are completing the final preparations for mandatory digital labeling of coffee. According to the operator of the Honest Sign system, companies are already testing the equipment and processes for applying Data Matrix codes, based on the cocoa labeling experience implemented since December 2025. The introduction of digital labeling "Honest Mark" for coffee from June 1, 2026, will temporarily push 10-15% of illegal turnover into Telegram channels and small platforms, market sources told Izvestia. Experts warn that the reform will redistribute shadow flows into uncontrolled channels where control is weaker and prices are lower. How much coffee will rise in price in retail is in the Izvestia article.
Where will the "gray" coffee go?
The hype around labeling is already increasing activity on alternative sites, market participants say. Telegram channels and small marketplaces without strict code monitoring can become new distribution centers where shadow sales can grow against the background of a general decrease in illegal turnover. The Russian coffee market, entrepreneurs assure, is about to feel the effect of the transition.
In the middle of the year, about 10-15% of the turnover of "gray" coffee may temporarily go into semi—shadow circulation - into Telegram channels and small online platforms, where control over the availability of codes is still weaker, says ASI expert, ex-senator Olga Epifanova. According to her, this shift is short-term: the practice of labeling "milk" and water shows that illegal trafficking decreases significantly over six months and a year due to digital tracking and checks.
The marketing agency "Russopros" emphasizes that the strengthening of shadow channels is only part of the picture. Despite the migration to social media, the total volume of illegal trade may decrease due to fines and seizures, although exact figures are still difficult to estimate.
The share of illegal coffee today is about 13%, market sources told Izvestia. But the association "Roscaikofe" does not agree with this.
— Currently, "gray" coffee does not exist, but after the introduction of labeling, we do not exclude its appearance on the market. It is difficult to predict the volume of such products, but it will definitely become a problem for bona fide participants in the coffee market in Russia," said Ramaz Chanturia, CEO of the association.
Linda Ryzhykh, Associate Professor of the Department of Management at the Presidential Academy, predicts migration of 10-20% of illegal shipments to Telegram. "A significant amount of illegal products may move there, as control over such channels is still limited. Telegram has become quite a popular platform for selling goods without registration and mandatory documents," she says.
Svetlana Ilyashenko, Associate Professor of the Basic Department of Trade Policy at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, adds that regional markets and fairs with a low level of control will also become shadow sales channels.
— Small catering establishments that are ready to save on raw materials to reduce their costs should also be considered risk areas. Before the introduction of mandatory labeling on coffee beans, it is possible to import under the guise of unmarked products with subsequent unaccounted—for processing," she said.
Izvestia sent requests to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Federal Tax Service, Rospotrebnadzor and the Central Trade Center. ("An honest sign").
Coffee for the crypt and the loopholes of importers
Imports from Asia carry the greatest risks of bypassing the system. Chinese and Vietnamese suppliers may step up crypto payments and parallel imports, reinforcing the shadow.
— It is difficult to make assumptions about possible schemes for circumventing labeling, but, as they say, the goal of fiction is tricky. Surely there will be those who will circumvent burdensome innovations," Ramaz Chanturia notes.
The experts interviewed confirm the threat from chains from Southeast Asia.
— Foreign producers and importers, especially from China and Vietnam, are really at risk of becoming a source of illegally imported coffee. Using cryptocurrencies to pay for product shipments will allow you to bypass customs control and avoid taxation. Illegal shipments as part of parallel imports through third countries, bypassing the Russian accounting system, are very likely, warns Linda Ryzhykh.
Labeling against counterfeits: a blow to surrogates
Digital control is designed to purge the market of impurities such as grains and root vegetables with flavors. But some of the surrogates will go to informal networks.
— Currently, there is virtually no surrogate or counterfeit. We do not know how much of such products will appear on the market after the introduction of mandatory labeling," Chanturia notes.
At the same time, the marketing agency "Russopros" estimates the current share of fakes at 3-5%. "The introduction of mandatory labeling is designed to eliminate counterfeiting. Its exact volume cannot be estimated. Basically, it is the mixing of low—quality raw materials with coffee or cocoa, which sometimes has nothing to do with these products," analysts say.
The price of coffee after June 1st
— We do not predict a significant and even more unreasonable increase in prices on the shelf due to labeling, — says Stanislav Bogdanov, Chairman of the ACORT Presidium. — From the experience of implementing the labeling system, the results of specialized research and the statements of the manufacturing companies themselves, we can say that the price is influenced by many factors, including the increase in the cost of raw materials, energy resources, packaging materials and logistics.
But many experts still believe that the costs of the reform will inevitably fall on market participants.
"The amount of investment in equipment and other necessary elements in the implementation of mandatory labeling for all large coffee enterprises is significant, so all these costs will certainly affect the cost of finished products,— adds Ramaz Chanturia.
The Rusopros agency provides fresh figures collected specifically for Izvestia. The agency notes that the average price for 1 kg of instant coffee this year on January 1, 2026, compared with the same date in 2025, has already increased by 17.3%, amounting to 4,115.75 rubles / kg. And, as analysts note, the increase in cost largely depends not only on internal factors.
Linda Ryzhykh attributes the inevitable price increase to a number of reasons.
— The adoption of mandatory labeling will obviously lead to an increase in the cost of coffee. These are the costs of companies for equipment and software for applying codes, additional administrative costs, including registration of each unit of goods, increased fines and penalties for violations of requirements, and so on," she lists.
The main growth factors, according to the expert, are the following: the cost of applying codes (about 1-2 rubles per package), fines for missing a code (up to 300 thousand rubles per batch without labeling) and logistics and certification costs.
Head of the "Popular Front. Analyst Olga Pozdnyakova notes that now a pack of coffee beans (500 g) costs an average of 800-1500 rubles. Against this background, labeling costs don't look too high.: The cost of one labeling code for each pack is 50 kopecks excluding VAT, she points out.
Anatoly Tikhonov, Director of the Center for International Agribusiness and Food Security at the Presidential Academy (RANEPA), emphasizes that after the introduction of labeling, the legal market will become more transparent and quality more predictable.
"But the paradox is that a connoisseur of the Ethiopian monosort probably just won't notice the changes, and a buyer of cheap instant coffee may face either a 5-7% increase in the price of a legal product, or the departure of his brand into the digital shadow, where there are no quality guarantees at all," he concludes.
Finally, according to him, the consumer of an extremely low—cost instant product will face a choice: pay more in the store or take the risk by buying "coffee without a history" in a public place, where the only guarantee is the reputation of an anonymous seller. The system creates a digital sanitary cordon around the legal market, but the shadow, though reduced, will not disappear, the expert is convinced.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
