Forecasters warn of the onset of a strong El Nino phenomenon. What is the threat of this

In 2026, the planet will experience one of the strongest El Nino events in history. It is a climatic phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that is changing the climate in many regions of the world and leading to extreme weather events. Europe is threatened with a hot and dry summer, in which the next temperature records will be broken. What is the effect of El Nino and what danger it carries — in the material of Izvestia.

What is El Nino?

• El Nino ("boy, child" in Spanish) is a cyclical natural phenomenon that occurs in the tropical latitudes of the Pacific Ocean. Its essence lies in the rise in water temperature, which leads to serious climatic shifts in Asia and South America, and in some cases affects the weather around the world. El Nino occurs every three to eight years, and a new powerful cycle is expected to begin in 2026.

• Scientists still cannot fully explain why El Nino occurs. Under normal conditions, constant winds called trade winds blow from east to west in the Pacific Ocean. They drive warm water from the northern part of South America to Southeast Asia, and in its place comes cold water from the depths of the ocean. This leads to the fact that the weather is usually cool and arid in Peru and the surrounding areas, while in Indonesia and neighboring countries it is hot and humid. The strength of the wind and the difference in air pressure is such that in the western Pacific Ocean the water is warmer by about seven degrees and its level is 60 cm higher than in the east.

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• However, with El Nino, the trade winds weaken and stop carrying warm water to the west. Instead, it goes from Indonesia back to Peru and does not allow the cold deep waters to rise. Because of this, rains and hurricanes begin in South America, and drought sets in in Asia. Over time, El Nino weakens under the influence of the reverse process, which is called La Niña ("girl").

What is the danger of El Nino

• Scientists announce the arrival of a new El Nino, when the surface of the tropical waters of the Pacific Ocean becomes 0.5 degrees higher for five months. The higher the temperature rises, the stronger the weather changes will be. With an increase of two degrees, it is customary to talk about the onset of super El Nino, which is already affecting the whole world. In the Northern Hemisphere, it causes an increase in temperature and heavy rains. At the same time, storms linger in North America and do not reach Europe, where hot and dry weather sets in.

• The main danger of El Nino is related to the fact that it leads to weather events that are atypical for the regions, which also become more severe than they could be under normal conditions. Where moderate rain is usually expected, prolonged drought occurs, and where it should be dry, floods occur. Given that global climate change is taking place now, which in itself makes weather events more extreme, the impact of El Nino is becoming even more powerful than it was in previous years.

• Changes in the weather caused by warming in the Pacific Ocean can lead to tangible consequences for humans. The most powerful El Nino in history, recorded in 1877-1878, caused severe famine in India, China and Brazil. About 50 million people became victims of it, which was about 3% of the world's population at that time.

Nowadays, El Nino no longer leads to such victims, but it still provokes dangerous cataclysms. On one side of the spectrum of possible consequences is drought. In 1997-1998, the long absence of rains in Southeast Asia led to the largest forest fires that spread to Indonesia, Malaysia and neighboring countries. They caused $4.5 billion in damage, and up to 40% of the annual carbon dioxide emissions were released into the atmosphere. A permanent haze has settled over the entire region, which, among other things, led to a plane crash with 234 victims in Indonesia.

• In 2016, the El Nino drought caused crop failures in East Africa, which, according to the UN, put 60 million people at risk of starvation. At the same time, the Panama Canal was severely shallowed, which temporarily restricted navigation, and the main Indochina river, the Mekong, which resulted in the loss of $250 million worth of rice. The dry spell during El Nino also hampered the operation of hydroelectric power plants in Venezuela.

• Other regions suffer from heavy rains during El Nino, which lead to severe flooding. In the same year, 2016, precipitation hit the central part of South America, affecting Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Brazil and Chile. Floods and landslides in mountainous areas have killed more than 400 people and left more than 350 missing. Rains and flooding of entire territories also contribute to the rapid proliferation of carriers of dangerous diseases such as malaria, dengue fever and encephalitis. Scientists have found that epidemics of infectious diseases in Africa and South America correlate with El Nino cycles.

• El Nino also has a negative impact on the ocean ecosystem. The cold deep waters, saturated with oxygen, are a haven for plankton, which serves as food for surface fish. However, the warm water caused by El Nino prevents its release, which affects the condition of marine organisms. As a result, fish either die or sink to the depths, which leads to reductions in the fishing industry. In South America, this leads to a shortage of fishmeal, which is used as feed for larger species of fish, birds and pigs.

• El Nino does not have a direct impact on Russia, but there are some indirect consequences due to it. In the European part of the country, it leads to drier and hotter periods, especially in summer. In the Far East, precipitation is increasing and the risk of cyclones coming from the Pacific Ocean is increasing. El Nino also leads to price spikes for some imported agricultural products such as coffee, cocoa and oranges because their producers have to face direct threats from El Nino.

Forecasts of meteorologists

• The last El Nino occurred in 2023 and was one of the five strongest on record. It contributed to the fact that this and subsequent years were the hottest on record. Now, just three years later, scientists are predicting the onset of this phenomenon again.

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• The World Meteorological Organization, established by the United Nations, has indicated an 80 percent chance of an El Nino this summer and urged preparations for it. According to her, the phenomenon will last until November with a probability of 90% or higher. The peak strength and timing of El Nino have not yet been fully calculated, but most predictive models already indicate that it will relate to super El Nino.

• For 2026, meteorologists predict that the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean will be below normal, leading to drier weather in Europe. The coming months will also be dry in East Africa, South Asia and Central America. From June to August, temperatures above normal are expected to prevail in all parts of the globe, which has already increased in recent years due to climate change.