Cleaning up at the root: why the microloan market is shrinking
In the first quarter of 2026, consumer credit cooperatives (CPC) associated with microfinance organizations provided Russians with two times fewer loans than three months earlier. The volume of disbursements decreased by 47%, according to the Central Bank. In the market as a whole, the number of concluded contracts fell by 51% to 417 thousand. During the year, more than 800 cooperatives were excluded from the register. What the market contraction threatens Russians with is in the Izvestia article.
What does the decrease in volumes mean?
The data from the Bank of Russia shows that the volume of loans issued to KPC in the first quarter of this year amounted to 12.3 billion rubles, which is lower than the level of the same period in 2025. More than 65% of cooperatives have reduced their loans. Loans to individuals decreased by 35%, while loans to businesses decreased by 26%. Trade has suffered particularly noticeably: minus almost 70% compared to last year.
The total loan portfolio decreased to 44.7 billion rubles (-3%). At the same time, the share of delays exceeding 90 days increased to 14.3%, mainly due to the problematic assets of cooperatives affiliated with microfinance organizations. For ordinary MFIs, this figure reaches 40.2%. Over the year, the number of PDAs in the registry has more than halved, leaving 446 compared to 1,247 a year earlier.
The decrease in volumes reflects the closing of a regulatory loophole. MFOs transferred part of the short-term loans to the CPC to mitigate the requirements. Such schemes did not comply with the principles of mutual assistance and violated the law. The regulator consistently removes them from the market. Since April 2026, the CPC has been prohibited from charging interest and fines on top of the principal debt, and the maximum overpayment on short loans has been reduced to 100%.
Anatoly Aksakov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, notes that the tightening is aimed at reducing the risks of over-creditworthiness. CPC is a mutual aid fund for shareholders, but some of them were used to circumvent restrictions on the debt burden, the deputy explained. Stricter rules will help protect citizens from falling into debt bondage, including by preventing unfair and aggressive creditor practices. The availability of micro-loans, including payday loans, is not decreasing.
— Credit holidays are provided so that people who cannot service their current debt do not apply for another loan from illegal creditors. In addition, banks in most cases are ready to meet customers halfway and offer restructuring options," Aksakov recalls.
He also said that the State Duma is currently working on a draft law on comprehensive debt settlement, which will allow for the restructuring of several debts at once.
How to replace cash gaps while maintaining the trend
If the reduction continues, citizens will have to look for alternatives. Grace-period credit cards, small bank loans, and installment services are available for borrowers with a good credit history. These tools are often cheaper than classic microloans when used correctly.
KPCS that are not affiliated with MFIs traditionally issue loans for longer periods — to citizens for just over a year, to businesses for about a year and a half. Short-term "payday loans" are closer to microfinance, which persists but is becoming more regulated.
Maria Ermilova, an international financial advisor accredited by the NASFP self-regulatory organization, emphasizes the importance of credit cards, banking products and installments for most clients. However, vulnerable categories may face a limited choice of legal sources, she warns.
How will the term loan model transform in the coming years
Stricter regulation of MFIs and the exclusion of PDAs are changing the landscape. The market is expected to concentrate around major technological players over the next two to three years. Decisions on small loans will more often be made automatically based on digital data. This will speed up risk assessment and reduce the likelihood of excessive debt burden.
The microfinance market is shifting from "payday loans" to credit lines. During the quarter, the number of MFIs with such products increased from 26 to 69, with tranches accounting for almost half of the volumes. Installments in 2025 added more than 80%, exceeding 500 billion rubles, although now they are regulated.
Alexey Tarapovsky, a member of the NASFP Board, points to three areas of transformation: the growth of credit limits in MFIs, the development of installments and banking products. The model will become more transparent, but less widespread in terms of the number of players. Banks will strengthen their presence in the segment of short-term loans, he believes.
In turn, State Duma Deputy Anatoly Aksakov is confident that microloans will remain available, but the risks of over-crediting will decrease. He explained that restrictions are being introduced now: one expensive micro loan in one hand, a three-day break before a new loan. Both consumer bank loans and installment payments for goods are a real alternative.
Who will suffer more from the "workarounds"?
Borrowers with unstable incomes, high debt burden, damaged credit history and without official employment will be most affected. Barriers are created by biometric identification and income verification requirements. About 10 million people have passed biometrics — about 7% of the population, while the active base of MFIs is estimated at 15 million.
Some of the clients may go into the shadows. According to the Central Bank, the number of identified "black creditors" increased by 36% in the first quarter. Industry estimates allow for the departure of up to 15% of customers. Workarounds include private loans on receipt, pseudo pawn shops, and schemes through thrift stores.
The press service of the MIR self-regulatory organization warns that the tightening may lead to an increase in the illegal market, as it happened in Belarus, because the need for funds remains, and the client is looking for an alternative. The fight against gray schemes risks spurring the shadow sector, confirms the existence of a paradox by the chairman of the Russian Federation Alexei Koitov. He suggests clarifying the retention period of a negative credit history so that bona fide borrowers return to the legal field.
Maria Ermilova and Alexey Tarapovsky agree that the regulator is cleaning up the market, but point out the importance of maintaining balance. Without the development of affordable legal products, the demand for fast money will go to places where there is no protection of borrowers' rights. The effectiveness of the reform in two years will be measured by this criterion.
The NASFP SRO believes that for the majority of borrowers with a good credit history, credit cards with a grace period, small bank loans, installment services and salary products of banks will become the main tools. These tools are often cheaper than classic microloans and, if used correctly, can cover short-term financial needs.
However, the most vulnerable categories of citizens who are denied loans by banks may face a shortage of legal sources of financing, the organization predicts. In this case, the risk of resorting to private loans against a receipt or even to illegal creditors increases.
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