The border is under tension: why Zelensky declares the threat of an attack by Belarus
Vladimir Zelensky spoke again about the threat of an attack by Belarus on Ukraine. According to him, additional forces will be deployed to the border areas of Chernihiv and Kyiv regions for defense. Experts believe that under the guise of protecting the Ukrainian Armed Forces, they can prepare their own offensive operation. Izvestia investigated the situation.
Operation in the north
Relations between Ukraine and Belarus continue to deteriorate rapidly. Vladimir Zelensky has recently made several statements at once that official Minsk may either join the fighting itself, or provide its territory for the passage of Russian troops.
On May 15, he reported that Ukrainian intelligence allegedly knew about the contacts of the Russian side with Alexander Lukashenko. During these negotiations, according to Zelensky, a possible offensive in the direction of Chernigov and Kiev from the territory of Belarus is being discussed. "I have instructed our Defense and Security Forces to submit a response plan," he noted.
On May 20, Zelensky held a meeting of the military headquarters, during which he ordered the deployment of additional troops to the border areas of Chernihiv and Kiev regions. "In addition, relevant non—public tasks have been set for Ukrainian intelligence," the press service said. It is known that the SBU has begun additional inspections of citizens, cars and premises in five border regions.
On May 21, Zelensky visited the town of Slavutych in the Kiev region, where he spoke about a "preemptive strike" against Belarus or the Russian border regions. According to him, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will take such a step in the event of a threat. He also noted that the Ukrainian army has the opportunity to "work" according to the actual Belarusian leadership, "which should be in good shape."
On the same days, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, announced that "the front line will expand, an operation in the north is possible." Interestingly, the speaker of the Ukrainian State Border Service, Andriy Demchenko, on the contrary, said that no deterioration in the situation was being recorded. Minsk is not building up forces in the border area, and there are no Russian troops being deployed either, he said.
"Volodya had to talk"
Over the past six months, Ukraine has consistently strained relations with Belarus. On the one hand, Kiev has thawed contacts with Alexander Lukashenko's fugitive opponents, with whom it had previously preferred to keep its distance. During this time, Zelensky personally talked with former prisoners who were pardoned by official Minsk, and also met with Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.
In mid-May, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry appointed its special representative for contacts with the fugitive opposition. It is assumed that he will also prepare for Tikhanovskaya's visit to Kiev. Finally, Zelensky gave his first interview to a Belarusian opposition newspaper. "I think we need to strengthen contacts with Belarus, Svetlana, and journalists," he said.
On the other hand, Ukraine has become more aggressive towards the Belarusian leadership. Kiev has imposed sanctions against Alexander Lukashenko, his two eldest sons and his inner circle. Several enterprises that are allegedly linked to the Russian military-industrial complex are also subject to restrictions. Unofficially, it was also reported that a criminal case could be opened against the Belarusian leader.
All this is accompanied by direct threats and outright rudeness. In particular, Zelensky stated in one of his speeches that Belarusians have fewer rights than the pomeranian Lukashenko. In another, he reminded the head of the republic about the fate of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, that is, he actually hinted at the kidnapping.
Interestingly, the Belarusian authorities practically do not react to all this in any way. Alexander Lukashenko has not commented on Zelensky's words until recently, although he did speak out on May 21. According to him, Belarus will be a participant in hostilities only if it becomes a victim of aggression. He also added that he was ready to meet with Zelensky anywhere in both countries.
It is difficult to say what the reason for this behavior of the Ukrainian leadership is. According to one assumption, Kiev felt its strength, considering that during its military operation the Ukrainian Armed Forces had become much more powerful than the Belarusian army, and therefore decided that there was no need to fear a possible escalation anymore.
The second version says that Kiev is acting in the interests of the EU and is trying to interfere with the negotiations between Belarus and the United States, which have intensified recently. "The Europeans are pushing. They see that we are having a certain dialogue with the Americans. Not everyone likes it. That's why they're trying to push Zelensky like this. Volodya had to say something, and then he apparently liked it," Lukashenko himself argued about this.
The third version suggests that Ukraine is actually preparing its attack on Belarus, and talk of possible aggression by Minsk only allows troops to be pulled to the border. However, there are many doubts here. For such an operation, Kiev will need very large forces, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are already suffering from a shortage of personnel.
In Belarus, however, the worst options are clearly not excluded. In mid-May, Alexander Lukashenko announced a "targeted mobilization" of military units. According to him, Minsk is committed to peace, but the army must be ready for combat. "We are preparing for war. There won't be this war — well, thank God. We are not threatening anyone in any way," the Belarusian leader emphasized.
No one canceled the goals of the SVO
Political analyst Dmitry Rodionov believes that Zelensky's concern is well-founded. Firstly, this is due to the fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly talked about creating a buffer zone on the border between Russia and Ukraine.
— Belarus is part of the Union State with us, we are obliged to ensure its security, that is, the task may well be to create a buffer zone in those Ukrainian regions bordering Belarus. Secondly, no one has canceled the goals of their operation, at some point our troops will begin to liberate Kiev. And the easiest way for them to enter will be from Belarus, our army was already moving from there to the Ukrainian capital at the very beginning of its operation. Therefore, Zelensky's statements are not without logic," the expert notes.
In turn, Andrey Koshkin, Head of the Department of Political Science and Sociology at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, recalls that joint nuclear exercises between Moscow and Minsk were held on May 19-21. And Ukraine, every time after any exercises, makes statements where it sounds the alarm and reports an allegedly imminent new threat.
— Now there were not simple maneuvers, but the actions of the nuclear triad were practiced. Moreover, Kiev could not miss such an occasion. I don't see anything new in this, and I don't expect a fundamental change in the situation on the line of contact," the source said.
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