Maduro in mind: Ukraine and Belarus on the verge of large-scale escalation
At the end of April, relations between Ukraine and Belarus deteriorated again. Vladimir Zelensky said that the neighboring republic was allegedly preparing an attack, and in this regard reminded Alexander Lukashenko of the fate of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, in other words, he actually threatened to kidnap him. In Minsk, in response, they started talking about a mental aggravation in Kiev. Izvestia investigated the situation.
Spring exacerbation
Vladimir Zelensky has spoken in extremely harsh terms about relations with Belarus. Citing intelligence data, he said that Minsk had "increased the activity of the armed forces." According to him, roads are being built in the border areas and artillery positions are being equipped. This allegedly indicates preparations for the invasion of Ukraine by the Belarusian army.
Zelensky also announced Kiev's readiness to repel this attack. "The nature and consequences of recent events in Venezuela should deter the Belarusian leadership from making mistakes," he stressed, meaning, in fact, he threatened Alexander Lukashenko with kidnapping.
Nicolas Maduro and his wife Celia Flores
Interestingly, the Ukrainian military actually refuted Zelensky's words. Adviser to the Minister of Defense Sergey Beskrestnov did not confirm the information about the construction of military infrastructure. And the leader of the Kraken unit (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) Konstantin Nemichev said that no attacks on Kiev, Lutsk, Zhytomyr or Rivne are predicted.
It is also characteristic that Zelensky's words were hardly commented on in Belarus itself. On April 20, Alexander Lukashenko's big interview was released, where he did not say a word about the threats, although he stressed that Ukrainians were paying for the decision to elect Zelensky as president: "They are also to blame, now we must answer for him."
The only public figure who reacted to the words about the opening of a new front was the Belarusian parliamentarian Oleg Gaidukevich. According to him, such statements indicate a mental aggravation in Kiev. "It is obvious that for the Kiev elite, one of the elements of how to prolong the war and stay in power is to involve more countries in it. Including Belarus. This has been a dream for a long time," he said.
To prevent the rapprochement
Relations between Ukraine and Belarus have been steadily deteriorating in recent years. In 2020, Kiev did not recognize Alexander Lukashenko's victory in the presidential election. After the start of the SVR in 2022, transport links between the countries were interrupted, cross-border trade stopped, and the work of embassies was suspended.
From time to time, serious exacerbations occurred. In February 2023, a terrorist attack took place against a Russian A-50 aircraft at the Belarusian Machulishchi airfield. Later, Lukashenko reported that the saboteurs were recruited by the SBU, and they all received 15-25 years in prison.
In the summer of 2024, the situation on the border of the two countries deteriorated sharply. At that time, Minsk reported that the Ukrainian side was actively conducting reconnaissance using drones, as well as mining certain sections of the contact line. Against this background, Lukashenko ordered the border guards to be placed on enhanced duty, and the Polonaise and Iskander missile systems moved into position.
At the same time, a certain restraint was maintained. The parties have not severed diplomatic relations, Ukraine has not been in contact with the Belarusian fugitive opposition. It is believed that Kiev was afraid of Minsk's more active participation in the fighting, so it tried not to anger the leadership of the neighboring republic.
Recently, the agenda has changed significantly. In December, Zelensky personally spoke with the prisoners whom Lukashenko pardoned. In January, he met with Svetlana Tikhanovskaya (considered the leader of the Belarusian opposition in the West), and following the meeting, the "leader" was invited to Kiev. In addition, Zelensky promised to appoint a representative who would contact Lukashenko's opponents on an ongoing basis.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya
In February, the Ukrainian side imposed personal sanctions against the Belarusian president, and Zelensky gave an interview to a Belarusian opposition newspaper. During the conversation, the head of the Kiev regime said that a criminal case could be opened against Lukashenko, and the sons and closest associates of the politician could be added to the sanctions list.
In addition, the Ukrainian president made several extremely harsh statements. During one of his speeches, he said that the white pomeranian Lukashenko has more rights than the Belarusian people. Now he has equated the Belarusian leader with Nicolas Maduro, who was abducted from Venezuela by the Americans.
It is difficult to say what is the reason for this change of position. According to one version, the Ukrainian leadership is no longer afraid of the participation of the Belarusian army in the conflict. Kiev believes that they have increased their long-range capabilities so much that, at the slightest threat, they will allegedly be able to inflict large-scale damage to a neighboring country.
According to another version, the British and European elites are extremely annoyed by the negotiation process between Belarus and the United States. Minsk and Washington held several rounds of negotiations, and talked about a "big deal" and a personal meeting between Lukashenko and Trump. Brussels and London probably want to prevent this rapprochement, which is why Zelensky was involved.
What the experts say
Political analyst Alexander Semchenko believes that a full-scale escalation between the two countries is quite possible.
— Zelensky does not make independent decisions. Apparently, the actors above him are interested in escalating the conflict, warming up the situation for this. They are trying to present the situation in such a way that Belarus is an aggressive party, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces must defend themselves," he explains.
The expert adds that Zelensky's arguments do not stand up to criticism. According to him, the construction of roads and the repair of checkpoints is a common job of any state.
Denis Denisov, director of the Institute of Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, says that there are no prerequisites for a full-scale conflict between the countries.
— In recent years, we have repeatedly seen similar stories with mutual accusations and some disturbing statements. So far, it has not come to a large-scale confrontation, and I think it will not come now. Although various provocations are, of course, possible, they would even be beneficial to Ukraine, because they would allow it to draw additional attention to the conflict," he emphasizes.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
