Sons and Sheiman: Ukraine has imposed new sanctions against Belarus

Ukraine has imposed new sanctions against Belarus. The list includes several military factories, as well as 16 individuals, including the sons of Alexander Lukashenko and his close associate Viktor Sheiman. Experts say that Kiev continues to escalate tensions in relations with Minsk. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

What happened

Ukraine has imposed sanctions against 11 Belarusian legal entities. The list includes the companies Olsa, Neftekhimdiagnostika, the Thermoplast plant in Minsk, the Heavy Forging Plant, and even the IK-9 enterprise at the correctional colony of the same name. All of them are allegedly involved in the production, testing and packaging of ammunition.

In addition, the list includes the Vitebsk Plant of Electrical Measuring Instruments, which, according to Kiev, makes equipment for the restoration of armored vehicles, as well as the Radiotechnika enterprise, which manufactures components for military equipment. Finally, the restrictions also affected the plant that repairs aircraft of the Tu, Yak and Il families.

There are 16 Belarusian citizens on the same sanctions list, including Alexander Lukashenko's eldest sons Dmitry and Viktor. Both are known for their passion for sports — one heads the Belarusian Olympic Committee, and the other heads the presidential sports club. At the same time, Ukraine believes that both are involved in circumventing international sanctions.

In addition, Viktor Sheiman, who for a long time was considered a close associate of Alexander Lukashenko, was on the list. Over the years, he was the country's prosecutor General, Secretary of the Security Council, and headed the presidential administration. Currently, Sheiman does not hold any official positions, but Kiev believes that he is "establishing shady business ties."

Volodymyr Zelensky said that the decision was intended to send a signal to Ukraine's partners, meaning, apparently, they should also impose additional sanctions against Minsk. Interestingly, Belarus did not react to the new restrictions in any way, and not a single official gave a comment.

The only public figure who spoke out about Kiev's decision was parliamentarian Oleg Gaidukevich. According to him, the Ukrainian authorities are trying not only to prolong the armed conflict, but also to expand its geography. One of the scenarios is provocations and attempts to draw Belarus into the confrontation.

He also added that Zelensky is not thinking about the welfare of the Ukrainian people, but about the interests of Western countries and his personal pocket. "He's addicted, plus he needs a lot of money. Prolonging the war means prolonging his power. If he was worried about Ukraine, then, on the contrary, he would do everything to have good relations with Belarus," Gaidukevich said.

What are the reasons?

Some cautious restraint in relations between Ukraine and Belarus persisted until the end of last year, but in recent months Kiev has gone on a serious escalation. In December, the Ukrainian side received several dozen Belarusian prisoners, who were pardoned by Alexander Lukashenko. Vladimir Zelensky then had a personal video conversation with them. In January, in Vilnius, he met with Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the leader of the fugitive Belarusian opposition. Zelensky invited his interlocutor to pay a visit to Kiev. He also promised to appoint his own special representative, who will be in constant contact with Lukashenko's opponents.

In February, Zelensky imposed personal sanctions on the Belarusian president and announced new restrictions against his inner circle. At the same time, the Ukrainian side started talking about the possibility of opening a criminal case against Lukashenko.

In addition, Zelensky spoke several times in an emphatically harsh manner about the authorities of a neighboring country. In one of his speeches, he stated that the pomeranian Lukashenko has more rights than Belarusians. In another case, he compared his colleague to Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, meaning he actually threatened the ruler of a neighboring country with kidnapping.

Interestingly, this escalation coincided with a noticeable warming in relations between Belarus and the United States. John Cole, the special Representative of the American President Donald Trump, held several rounds of talks with the Belarusian leader. Following the results of each of them, Minsk released a batch of prisoners, and Washington lifted certain sanctions. For example, restrictions were lifted on the Belavia company, the Belarusian potash industry, as well as a number of banks.

Personally, Donald Trump also spoke warmly about Lukashenko. He called him a strong and respected leader, and emphasized his presidential position, which other Western politicians fundamentally do not do. Representatives of the two countries also announced bilateral talks at Trump's residence in Florida. Finally, Lukashenko received invitations to the summits of the Peace Council in the United States.

It is known that the parties are discussing the so-called grand bargain, under which Washington can lift all sanctions against Minsk, and it will release all prisoners who are considered political in the West. "Am I going to deny it? It's not that I'm happy, but it's important for Belarus, including for me. So I said: "I'm fine with that. Tell Donald that I agree to prepare this "big deal"," Lukashenko said in March.

It is quite possible that the Ukrainian leadership is trying to undermine the rapprochement between Minsk and Washington by its actions. On the one hand, we may be talking about Zelensky's personal grudge, because it turns out that his relationship with Trump is worse than Lukashenko's. On the other hand, the current situation may annoy European leaders who oppose Belarus' withdrawal from isolation.

What the experts say

The Belarusian side does not pay attention to Ukraine's efforts, because the legal consequences of Kiev's sanctions are negligible, says Kirill Koktysh, professor at MGIMO, Doctor of Political Sciences.

— Minsk is neither hot nor cold from this. The same can be said about other attempts to destabilize the situation, for example, about Zelensky's meetings with journalists, former prisoners, or even with Tikhanovskaya. And what is this done for? Ukraine is trying to create additional information channels, showing the West that it is needed not only for confrontation with Russia, but also in other areas," he explains.

Ukraine's actions, according to Vladimir Zharikhin, Deputy director of the Institute of CIS Countries, are a political gesture.

— Belarus is Russia's closest ally, which is why new restrictions have been imposed on it. All this is somewhat frivolous, because Kiev's sanctions apply only on the territory of Ukraine, hardly anyone cares about them outside its borders. In other words, we are not talking about causing diplomatic or economic damage, but about a kind of political gesture. At the same time, I do not expect any large-scale escalation between the countries, after all, Kiev is already in a difficult situation," the expert predicts.