A sea of problems: what will water scarcity lead to in Central Asia
An environmental summit will be held in Astana on April 22-24, and all five presidents of Central Asian countries are expected to participate. The central theme will be the water problem. In general, water shortages are increasing in the region — rivers are getting shallower, consumption is increasing due to economic development and population growth. Experts predict that armed conflicts may break out in such conditions, and millions of migrants will leave. Izvestia investigated the situation.
Waiting for the drought
Central Asia is entering a dry summer period with heavy expectations. The latest official statistics date back to mid-February, when the 92nd meeting of the Interstate Coordination Water Management Commission (IWCC), which includes Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, was held. According to published data, the basins of the largest rivers in the region have seriously shrunk.
This year, the water content of the Amu Darya is only 66.8% of the long-term average rate. At the same time, a year ago, the indicator was at 101.8%, that is, the river lost a third of its flow. In this regard, the water level in the reservoirs has also dropped. The Tuyamuyun water hub, which is key for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, has accumulated 4349 million cubic meters of water this year, which is 600 million less than last year's figure.
Kairakkum hydroelectric power station on the Syrdarya River
The shortage of water also forced the postponement of the most important agrotechnical procedure — irrigation irrigation, which is necessary to restore soil fertility. This year, they started only on February 10, which is two months later than usual. In the arid regions of Uzbekistan, harvesting is impossible in principle without washing saline soils, so such a delay threatens serious losses.
The situation on the second major Central Asian river, the Syr Darya, is more optimistic, although there are reasons for concern here. With a total supply rate of 11.7 million cubic meters, 10.2 million actually arrived, or 87%. The largest Naryn-Syrdarya cascade of reservoirs has reserves of 2.5 million cubic meters less than a year ago. In fact, an entire separate body of water is missing.
It is also noted that the Aral Sea basin did not receive a third of the planned volume of water. In such conditions, officials warn that this summer may break new anti-records. The Minister of Water Resources of Kazakhstan, Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, says that in the basins of the Syrdarya and Talas, "water content is expected to be below the long-term norm," that is, predicts a drought.
The Loop of the Desert
In general, the problem of water scarcity in Central Asia has seriously worsened in recent years. According to the New Lines Institute, an international think tank, per capita water supply has more than tripled in 40 years, from 8,400 to 2,500 cubic meters per year. "Fluid scarcity is becoming one of the key threats to economic development and stability," the report says.
Environmental problems have also been exacerbated more than once. In the spring of 2023, large-scale failures with water supply were recorded in the largest cities. At that time, water shut-off schedules were introduced in Bishkek, Astana and Alma Ata, and large protests took place against this background. In the summer of the same year, an emergency regime was introduced in several areas in southern Kazakhstan due to drought.
There are several reasons for this situation. First, the population of Central Asia is growing — at the end of the Soviet period, 49 million people lived in five republics, now it is more than 80 million. On average, the region is adding a million inhabitants annually, which means that by 2050 the target of 100 million people should be reached. It is clear that all this leads to more consumption.
Secondly, the economy is growing. According to estimates by the Eurasian Development Bank, the combined GDP of the region's countries has increased by an average of 6.2% per year over the past 20 years. By the end of 2025, growth was 7%, which is significantly higher than in the developing economies of the world. At the same time, the structure is dominated by industry and agriculture, which require a lot of water.
Thirdly, climate change has an impact on the situation. Meteorologists say that the average annual temperatures in the region are rising twice as fast as on the planet as a whole. At the same time, the Minister of Agriculture of Tajikistan, Kurbon Hakimzoda, reported on the massive melting of glaciers feeding the largest rivers. According to him, out of 14 thousand ice accumulations, a thousand have disappeared in recent years.
Experts are talking about the so-called climate loop of Central Asia. Summers are becoming hotter and drier, and the desert area is expanding. In such conditions, water consumption is increasing, and the area of reservoirs is decreasing, even the Caspian Sea is retreating from its shores. As a result, less precipitation falls in the region, and the climate becomes even hotter.
The Caspian Sea
Fourth, there are many difficulties associated with outdated infrastructure. It is known that when irrigating farmland, up to half of all water is lost due to the deterioration of canals, dams and distribution systems. For many years, experts have been talking about the need to introduce modern drip irrigation systems, but these technologies have not yet become widespread.
Finally, the problem remains the weak coordination of the Central Asian countries among themselves. If the post-Soviet republics are still cooperating within the framework of the ICWC and other mechanisms, then neighboring Afghanistan is on the sidelines of these processes. At the same time, Kabul has developed rapid activity in recent years, for example, it is already completing the construction of the Kosh Tepa canal, which will take water from the long-suffering Amu Darya.
All against all
There are also several consequences of the water crisis. It is likely that if the problem worsens, it may lead to armed clashes. It is known that this has already happened before. For a long time, the situation around the Tajik enclave of Vorukh, surrounded by the territory of Kyrgyzstan, remained tense. More than once, clashes broke out here, during which even armored vehicles were used.
At the same time, the immediate reason was just the disputes of local residents over the wells. Later, the parties managed to resolve their differences, but experts say that such incidents may happen again. "An increase in water scarcity will trigger an escalation of violence between countries, which will end in a full-scale war of all against all. Areas with water resources will be closed within borders that are not related to the state," one of the forecasts says.
In addition, a lot is said about the occurrence of numerous everyday problems. In a negative scenario, water in large cities can be supplied strictly according to a limit, unlimited access to drinking liquids will be a privilege. Outbreaks of diseases are possible in arid areas, and a crisis in agriculture can provoke famine and social instability.
Against this background, a mass departure of people from the region is likely. President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev cited estimates that by 2050, about 5 million internal "climate" migrants may appear in Central Asia due to drought. For comparison: This is more than the combined population of the two largest cities in the region — Tashkent and Alma Ata.
There is only one alternative
There is no solution to the problem of water scarcity in Central Asia, says Alexander Kobrinsky, Director of the Agency for Ethnonational Strategies. You can build different schedules, plans, and programs, but there is simply no physical water, he emphasizes.
— Amu Darya and Syr Darya were killed due to the cultivation of water-absorbing crops — rice, cotton. In addition, Afghanistan is completing the construction of the huge Kush Tepa canal, which is completely degrading the Amu Darya. I am sure that in such circumstances, war will be inevitable. There is only one alternative for all five countries in the region — closer cooperation with Russia, which can help preserve peace and order," the expert explains.
The Amu Darya River
Political scientist Rustam Burnashev does not expect any serious problems this year, although they are possible in the longer term.
— Water intake quotas have been agreed for this summer, and enough water has been collected in reservoirs. If all the agreements are respected, then no problems will arise. Of course, the situation is difficult in the medium term. Glaciers are melting, the abundance of rivers is falling, and the risks of water scarcity are increasing. I think that in the next political cycle, that is, over the course of four to five years, the situation may worsen," he predicts.
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