Draining Europe: unprecedented drought is predicted for the continent
Brussels is developing a plan to address the shortage of fresh water in Europe. The European Commission (EC) is concerned about the drought in the region, therefore, it calls for reducing the consumption of water resources. In the long term, by 2030, the member States of the European Union (EU) should reduce consumption by at least 10%. This is the first time that the purpose of the Brussels document is to increase the efficiency of water resources use. How Europe plans to deal with the drought, what awaits the EU economy and what such restrictions may threaten states and their citizens — in the Izvestia article.
The current situation
At the end of May, the Financial Times newspaper, referring to the draft initiative, reported that the European Commission plans to reduce freshwater consumption by at least 10% by 2030. This is due to the climatic conditions and abnormal heat that have plagued many countries over the past three years. The report of the Joint Research Center of the European Commission (JRC) states that due to high temperatures and insufficient humidity in Central, Eastern and Southern Europe, as well as in the Eastern Mediterranean, there is a threat of large-scale drought.
Similar conditions are developing in the north-western territory of the continent. From January to March 2025, the average temperatures in the Alps, Northern Scandinavia and Eastern Europe were 3 degrees Celsius above normal.
The Iberian Peninsula, the south of France and most of Italy are currently suffering from the heat. According to JRC, some areas of Cyprus, Greece and the Balkans, as well as Turkey, have reached the "red alert" level — the last stage of the drought.
EU countries are facing the consequences of global warming.
Due to the decrease in fresh water levels, hosepipe irrigation is now prohibited in some regions of Sweden, and in France and Spain in recent years farmers and conservationists have been fighting each other over the construction of dams. Lack of moisture and a warm climate lead to active soil dehydration and lack of harvest. High temperatures are the main reason for river shallowing in Poland and Ukraine, the largest grain producing countries in the region.
Brussels' new plan for the rational use of freshwater should help the European Union figure out how to increase resilience to resource scarcity. With demand exceeding supply, countries need to adapt to the changes and start building wastewater treatment plants, as well as looking for new water sources.
As industrial expert Leonid Khazanov told Izvestia, right now it is not always possible to drill new wells to extract resources. Water is an important component of the European economy, as its absence affects many industries, including agriculture and the service sector.
— In Europe today, water supply is carried out through the use of groundwater. As a rule, it is not taken from surface sources. And, accordingly, in conditions of intensive pumping of groundwater, their resource is reduced, that is, new wells need to be drilled. It is not always possible to do this for one reason or another, because the land is private," the expert shared.
What's the plan
A 10% savings target will not be mandatory. The Commission calls on EU member States to set their own limits and collect as much data on freshwater consumption as possible. Some countries experiencing serious shortages, such as Spain, have already determined how to use resources effectively. In Bulgaria, according to the EarEau organization, which deals with water supply issues in EU countries, 60% of fresh water is lost due to leaking pipes. On the territory of all the countries of the Union, in general, this figure reaches approximately 25%.
Approximately €23 billion per year is needed for the normal existence of the Brussels plan. The European Investment Bank also plans to launch a €15 billion loan and guarantee program to support water infrastructure between 2025 and 2027. Currently, only 2.4% of water is recycled in the EU.
European Commissioner Jessica Rosewall, in a comment to the Financial Times, noted that when it comes to the rational use of freshwater, it is important for EU countries to unite to solve the problem rather than compete, although such a scenario cannot be ruled out. "When it comes to water, there should be no national borders," she said.
Igor Shkradyuk, coordinator of the industrial greening program at the Wildlife Conservation Center, told Izvestia why there is a big problem of drought and shortages of fresh water in various regions of Europe right now.
— Weather is a complex, dynamic, nonlinear system in which there are strong fluctuations relative to the average values. That is, there are cold years, hot, dry, and wet. An increase in the amount of carbon dioxide and water vapor leads to increased heat flows from the Earth to the atmosphere and back. As a result, weather fluctuations are becoming more active," the expert states.
The climate context
Over the past decade, Europe has faced significant effects of drought. The year 2022 was the hottest in half a century and, one might say, set a definite trend: with each subsequent year, the situation only got worse. For example, the spring of 2025 has become one of the driest in Germany's history. Precipitation fell only 11-20 mm in different regions, which is about a third of the total norm. The main reason is anticyclones, which block any rains in the country.
The coastal area of Lake Constance, affected by drought, Germany
Farmers are concerned about the possible lack of harvest of spring crops such as corn and cereals. It is only now that meteorologists have begun to warn about the need for changes in agricultural policy. They suggest choosing drought-resistant crops, and also advise using water more efficiently for watering vegetable gardens. The authorities are considering support measures for the affected farmers, such as financial assistance and irrigation subsidies.
In Cyprus, due to global warming, the precipitation cycle has changed. Since 2007, two rainy years have been followed by dry periods. This led to an increase in evaporation and a decrease in water levels. The hydrological year 2023-2024 has become one of the driest, with an influx of water of only 24.7 million cubic meters — 8.5% of the total reservoir capacity. The government expects a shortage of fresh water, especially in Paphos, due to drought and problems with desalination plants.
Currently, the trend of increasing dry periods is observed throughout Europe. As Igor Shkradyuk notes, it is absolutely unsurprising that Brussels is adopting a plan to reduce freshwater consumption. The expert believes that in addition to the natural factor, there is also an anthropogenic factor, which undoubtedly affects the abrupt climate change.
— Climate change leads not only to an overall increase in the average temperature, but also to sharp deviations from normal values. Extreme frosts and heat waves, increased droughts and floods are a direct result of anthropogenic influence. It enhances the fluctuations and heterogeneities inherent in the natural system," Igor Shkradyuk added.
The Brussels plan has a significant drawback: its points are almost impossible to fully implement. 10% of resources is a huge figure for residents of all EU countries. Such strict restrictions can become a problem for any production, since people need water even for basic needs.
— On the one hand, saving is a good thing, no one objects. On the other hand, it's not always possible to do it the way you want, because no matter how much we want to conserve water, we can't shower under a thin stream of water: we'll have to turn it on at full power. The same goes for watering fields. Here's how not to save money? And it should just be in the required volumes, which are provided for there by practice," Leonid Khazanov shares with Izvestia.
What can we expect in the future?
Summer in Europe is getting hotter every year. This will greatly affect the economy in each country of the Union. According to forecasts, agriculture will be the first to suffer. Definitely, we should expect an increase in food prices. Leonid Khazanov suggests that harvests in different regions will decrease or disappear altogether.
— The normal supply of water for agricultural land is simply a vital necessity. If crops do not have enough moisture, then, accordingly, yields may decrease, or they will not be at all in some individual regions. And this applies not only to crops that require a lot of water, such as sugar beet. We are also talking about wheat, barley, and so on," the expert notes.
The second important factor is the increase in tariffs for water and electricity. The main reason is the drought. When the rivers dry up, the stations cannot operate at full capacity, so electricity will also most likely have to be saved.
— From year to year, the generation of electricity at hydroelectric power plants varies by one and a half to two times. Why? Because the amount of water in the rivers is changing," Igor Shkradyuk points out.
Following the rise in food prices, the average bill in the service sector will also rise. Cafes and restaurants will not serve guests at a loss, Leonid Khazanov also believes. These changes will affect the entire tourism sector, which may negatively affect the economies of various countries.
It is worth noting that the drought will greatly affect shipping. Climate change will affect regions where water transport is an important means of transportation. For example, river and canal transportation of passengers and goods is common in the Netherlands, and shipping is the mainstay of tourism in Denmark, just like in Italian Venice.
There are more disappointing forecasts. If this heat continues, by 2099, the death rate from heat in European cities will reach 2.3 million people. This is the opinion of scientists from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The highest number of deaths is expected in Barcelona (246,082), Rome (147,738) and Naples (147,248). The peak is forecast in the Mediterranean megacities, although small towns may also be affected.
To try to avoid all negative consequences, the European Commission plans to launch a program to purify water from perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl compounds (PFAS), which are known as "eternal pollutants". This will take place within the framework of the European Water Sustainability Strategy adopted in Brussels.
It will take from €5 to €100 billion per year to clean water bodies in Europe. Brussels is putting forward an initiative according to which the costs will have to be covered by companies using PFAS. The strategy also aims to restore the water cycle and ensure access to clean water, taking into account the problems of water scarcity in 34% of the EU territory. The Head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, focuses on the importance of sustainable water resources for society and the economy.
Thus, the problem of drought right now is one of the main ones that the European Union will have to solve as soon as possible. Leaving people without water, crops and money is not the most successful position that Brussels can take. There are other "needs" in Europe now, for which huge budgets are being spent. Nevertheless, you should think about the citizens of your own countries rather than primarily taking care of others.
The effects of climate change are really disappointing. Agriculture, utilities, tourism, shipping and, eventually, deaths from heat — all this can weaken Europe's influence on the global market of goods and services.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
