The Ukrainian Armed Forces' attacks on oil and gas infrastructure have a negative impact on other countries. And here's why
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- The Ukrainian Armed Forces' attacks on oil and gas infrastructure have a negative impact on other countries. And here's why
The Ukrainian Armed Forces' attacks on the oil and gas infrastructure increase instability in the energy markets. Disruptions to key supply routes affect exports, prices, and the energy security of entire regions. As a result, the risks of oil and gas disruptions are increasing for European countries and the global market as a whole. What you need to know about the consequences of Ukrainian sabotage is in the Izvestia article.
Attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium
• On the night of April 6, 2026, the facilities of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in Novorossiysk were attacked by Ukrainian drones. The impact hit the marine transshipment complex, the end point of the entire pipeline system. As a result, a fire broke out in four tanks with petroleum products, and elements of the mooring infrastructure were damaged, including the pipeline of the outrigger mooring device and the discharge and filling terminal.
• According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the attack was aimed at destabilizing the energy market and attempting to disrupt export supplies. In November 2025, a similar incident involving unmanned boats led to a reduction in Kazakh oil exports by almost a third.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium is an international oil transportation system that connects the fields of Western Kazakhstan with the Novorossiysk terminal on the Black Sea. Mainly Kazakhstani oil from the Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak projects is pumped through a pipeline with a length of more than 1.5 thousand km, after which the raw materials are shipped by tankers to the markets of Europe and the Mediterranean.
• Attacks on CPC facilities have an impact on a number of States, as this route plays a key role in global energy. Kazakhstan is experiencing the most serious consequences. For the country, CPC is actually the main export artery, through which about 80% of all oil supplied abroad passes. In addition, the largest fields — Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak — are linked to this route, therefore, with pumping restrictions, mining companies have to reduce production volumes.
• Western countries, which are both investors and consumers, are also having a significant impact. The American corporations Chevron (15%) and ExxonMobil (7.5%) have invested heavily in the production of Kazakh oil, so failures in the CPC affect their assets and lead to significant losses. European companies such as Eni and Shell are also involved in the project. At the same time, refineries in Southern Europe, especially in Italy, are focused on the CPC Blend grade supplied through this pipeline, and its shortage leads to an increase in fuel prices. A negative impact on the interests of Western countries may lead to a decrease in support for Kiev.
• On a broader scale, the effects also affect the global market. About 1.5 million barrels of oil are supplied daily through the CPC system, which exceeds 1% of the global supply. Therefore, even short-term interruptions in the operation of the Novorossiysk terminal can provoke fluctuations in Brent crude oil prices and increase instability in the energy markets.
The overlap of "Friendship"
• Since January 27, 2026, Russian oil supplies along the southern direction of the Druzhba pipeline towards Hungary and Slovakia have completely stopped, which led to a serious energy crisis in Eastern European countries. The reason for the failure was initially a small damage to the highway infrastructure in the area of the Brody junction in western Ukraine, but further cutting off supplies was already a political decision by the Ukrainian authorities.
The Druzhba oil pipeline is one of the largest oil transportation trunk systems in the world, created during the Soviet period to supply raw materials from Russia to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The highway starts in Russia, passes through Belarus and Ukraine and then divides into two directions: the northern one leads to Poland and Germany, the southern one leads to Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.
• The Ukrainian side claims that the damage was allegedly caused by an airstrike by Russia. At the same time, Hungary and Slovakia accuse Kiev of deliberately blocking transit, calling what is happening an oil blockade and citing satellite images as proof, which show no damage. According to Budapest, the Ukrainian authorities are not restoring the supply of electricity necessary for the operation of pumping equipment.
• Ukraine says that the completion of the repair work will allow the pipeline to be put back into operation by mid-April 2026. However, the situation and distrust of the Kiev authorities have already provoked a harsh reaction from the recipient countries. In particular, Slovakia stopped exporting electricity to Ukraine in response, and Hungary blocked the allocation of a loan of €90 billion for Ukraine from the EU and made it clear that it was ready to block new EU sanctions measures against Russia until the supply issue was resolved.
• Against the background of the crisis, Budapest and Bratislava began to look for workarounds and entered into negotiations with Croatia on using the Adria oil pipeline to ensure oil imports bypassing Ukrainian territory. Hungary is also discussing the possibility of purchasing American oil.
• The termination of oil supplies via the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline has hit importing countries the hardest. Hungary turned out to be vulnerable, where about 60-70% of all oil comes through this system. MOL's key refinery in Sazhalombatta is technologically focused on Russian Urals crude, so stopping pumping created a risk of fuel shortages and caused prices to rise at gas stations.
Slovakia found itself in even more severe dependence. The country's only refinery, Slovnaft— is directly connected to this pipeline, and in the face of supply cuts, the state has to use up strategic reserves.
• The Czech Republic is also experiencing serious difficulties, as a significant part of the oil was supplied via the same route. Although the country has access to the alternative Transalpine TAL oil pipeline through Austria and Germany, its current capacity is insufficient to completely replace Druzhba without additional expansion.
• If the supply stoppage situation drags on, the consequences may go beyond individual countries. Eastern Europe risks facing a shortage of diesel fuel, which will slow down transport logistics and industrial production, creating additional pressure on the energy system of the entire European Union.
Sabotage on the Turkish Stream
• On April 5, 2026, two backpacks with powerful explosive devices were discovered in Serbia, a few hundred meters from the route of the Balkan Stream (the European continuation of the Turkish Stream). Serbian security services have launched a search for a foreign citizen suspected of preparing a terrorist attack. At the same time, the authorities did not rule out that persons with military experience from among illegal migrants may be involved in the incident.
The Turkish Stream gas pipeline is a major export route for Russian gas supplies to Southern and Southeastern Europe, which runs along the bottom of the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey and further along overland extensions to the Balkan countries. The system consists of two pipelines with a total capacity of about 31.5 billion cubic meters of gas per year: one provides for Turkey's domestic needs, the second sends gas through Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary to European countries.
• The situation caused an instant reaction in the region: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban initiated an urgent meeting of the Defense Council and ordered to strengthen the protection of the Hungarian section of the gas pipeline, which covers up to 60% of the country's gas needs. Moscow stated the high probability of Ukraine's involvement, indicating that the goal could be to destabilize the energy situation in Europe. In turn, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry rejected these accusations, calling the incident a "false flag" provocation related to an attempt to influence the political situation in Hungary.
• The Turkish Stream remains in fact the last major route for Russian pipeline gas supplies to Southern and Southeastern Europe after the failure of the Nord Streams and the instability of transit through Ukraine. Any serious disruptions in its work can lead to large-scale consequences for the countries of Central Europe, including Serbia, Hungary and Greece.
• Hungary remains the most vulnerable: For Budapest, this route is a key source of gas, providing about 60-70% of all supplies. If the pumping stops, the country may face an energy crisis — industrial disruptions, the introduction of emergency measures and a sharp increase in utility bills are possible.
• Serbia is also heavily dependent on this direction, as it receives almost all of its imported gas through Bulgaria from the Turkish Stream. At the same time, it serves as a transit hub for the Balkan Stream, so any damage to the infrastructure deprives it of gas and transit revenue.
• Bulgaria, despite its refusal to purchase Russian gas directly, remains a key transit country. Fuel flows to Serbia and Hungary through its territory, so any disruptions lead to the loss of significant transit revenues.
• This gas pipeline has a double meaning for Turkey. On the one hand, the country uses about half of its capacity for its own needs, including supplying densely populated regions such as Istanbul. On the other hand, Ankara seeks to turn its territory into a gas hub for reselling fuel to Europe, and any sabotage undermines its reputation as a reliable transit center.
• Southern European countries, including Greece, North Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, are also heavily dependent on supplies via this route. For Bosnia and Herzegovina, it remains effectively the only source of imported gas, making it particularly vulnerable to disruptions.
When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:
- Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Policy and Economic Measurements at the Institute of Economics and Finance of the State University of Management Maxim Chirkov.
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