How markets influence US politics. Analysis
The business strategy of US President Donald Trump, with which he orchestrated the panic in world markets during his trade wars, seems to have failed. Wall Street, which had previously successfully capitalized on the American cycles of imposing duties and canceling them, is now responding less and less to the president's appeasing statements. How Trump influenced the markets and whether it is possible to say that the markets are now controlled by Trump is in the Izvestia article.
Market influence on Trump's position
• The US operation against Iran has led to such significant consequences on the oil and financial markets that it has become obvious not only the natural influence of US foreign policy on the economy, but also vice versa. This is not the first time that the situation in the markets has forced the White House to change its decision or adjust its foreign policy in such a way as to reduce panic.
• Trump is forced to use his influence to calm investors and mitigate the effects of shocks caused by his decisions, as fluctuations in the markets cause discontent among voters and a barrage of criticism from both Democrats and party allies. These attempts became especially noticeable after the threat of a fuel crisis due to the conflict in Iran unleashed by the United States and Israel.
• The White House postpones all actions and announcements that will lead to a sharp increase in the value of securities until Saturday or Friday evening, when trading on the stock exchange is already closed. And on Monday, after the markets open, he makes reassuring statements that the war is almost over and things are moving towards a truce. So, on Saturday, March 21, Trump demanded that Tehran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, threatening otherwise to destroy Iranian energy facilities, and on Monday, March 23, he announced that a deal between the United States and Iran could be reached within five days. Thus, the president prevents a sharp surge in the markets, fueled by uncertainty. By Monday, when the situation is already clearing up, the price increase turns out to be moderate.
• Other actions are being taken.Trump suspended secondary sanctions for the purchase of Russian oil on March 12 to curb rising fuel prices caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions on Iranian oil were suspended on March 21. On March 23, the United States suspended attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, and later extended this suspension until April 6, explaining this by negotiations with Iran, which Tehran denied. Trump did not hide the fact that the pause in attacks on energy facilities was made, among other things, to stabilize the markets.
• Wall Street has already made sure that Trump is not ready to drop the market below certain values: traders even have a special term TACO. The abbreviation stands for "Trump always cowards" (Trump Always Chickens Out), and gained a foothold in May 2025 after a series of threats to impose duties against other countries and subsequent waivers. But Trump's TACO tactics only work when both sides are interested in ending disagreements as soon as possible, so in the case of Iran, it does not work: Tehran is ready for a prolonged conflict, since with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it has taken half of world trade hostage.
• The market no longer believes Trump, as his contradictory statements no longer give the impression that the United States is in control of the situation. This was first demonstrated during the tariff wars, and later in the conflict with Iran. The sharp price spikes in the markets do not indicate that investors are listening to the reassuring words of the US authorities, but their confidence that the fear of seeing poor performance on the stock exchange will deter Trump from carrying out his threats. Trump's tactics are now working against him, markets are not reacting so vividly to his political statements and are rather showing a steady upward trend in prices, and the fear of a sharp increase in volatility due to the prolongation of the conflict forces the US president to look for ways to end the conflict, even without unblocking the Strait of Hormuz.: This option was announced by Trump on April 2.
Suspected insider trading
• At the same time, the White House administration itself has long been suspected of enriching itself at the expense of foreign policy, in particular, by using insider information. Moreover, during Trump's two presidential terms, these suspicions surfaced repeatedly. During the trade war between the United States and China in 2019, one of the investors bought an abnormal volume of futures on the S&P 500 index before the announcement of the abolition of duties and was able to earn $1.8 billion on the deal. In July 2020, the top management of Eastman Kodak earned about $79 million in August 2020 on a stock options deal made before the announcement that the company would receive a government loan of $765 million. The suspicion of a conflict of interest against the US authorities due to the fact that the head of Kodak, Adam Boler, was a friend of Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has not been confirmed.
Insider trading is the purchase and sale of securities based on confidential information that was not publicly available at the time of the transaction. Such information may include commercial, official, or banking secrets. Due to the fact that the practice of insider trading gives a trader an unfair advantage, it is considered illegal in many countries, including the United States.
• On March 23, 15 minutes before the announcement of the suspension of strikes on Iranian energy facilities, a sharp surge in activity was recorded on the oil futures market: within two minutes, the volume of trading in Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures exceeded $760 million. The same activity was observed in the S&P 500 futures market. Earlier, suspicions were aroused by Trump's post "NOW IS A GREAT TIME TO SHOP!!! DJT" on April 9, 2025, four hours before the announcement of the abolition of duties on all goods except Chinese. The message led to an increase in stock markets, the beneficiary of which was the Trump family corporation Trump Media & Technology Group Corp — its shares rose by 22%.
• In 2026, there were two cases of winning at forecast bets at once, which can also be explained by access to insider information. On January 2, an unknown trader placed $32,000 on the forecast of the date of the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The last bet was made an hour before Maduro's abduction by the US military and brought winnings of more than $400 thousand. On February 28, bets on the date of strikes on Iran, made on the eve of the attacks by the United States and Israel on the Islamic Republic, brought about $1 million.
The impact of Trump's remarks on the markets
• Donald Trump's influence on the markets could be traced back to the election campaign in 2024: his promise to provide support to the crypto industry led to optimism in the cryptocurrency market. Later, against the background of the White House's interest in the topic of introducing artificial intelligence, the AI industry also began to grow. The Trump family benefits from this influence. In addition to the media resource, the assets of the family corporation include memcoin TRUMP, a bitcoin mining farm (American Bitcoin Corp.) and the cryptoplatform World Liberty Financial — the president's family earned about $390 million on the sale of WLFI tokens.
• The Trump family's close relationship with major market players has repeatedly been the object of criticism and suspicion of a conflict of interest. Buyers of virtual tokens of the Trump cryptoplatform are not required to disclose their identity, but some did not hesitate to state this directly. For example, Justin Sun, the founder of the Tron crypto network, who is accused of securities fraud, admitted that he spent about $75 million on WLFI tokens. The Securities Commission's litigation initiated against him in 2023 was suspended in February 2025. Justin Sun himself was honored with a dinner with the US president in May 2025 as the largest holder of the TRUMP memcoin.
What does this mean?
• Thanks to the spread of social media, the influence of the US president has become so widespread that the consequences of almost every statement he makes are reflected in world markets, and trade manipulation generates billions of dollars in profits in a short time. Control over abuse has been weakened: as a result of the public administration reform implemented by Trump, the staff of the anti-corruption department at the Ministry of Justice has been reduced from 36 lawyers to two and stripped of the authority to initiate new cases.
• Recent events show that the statements of the US president as an instrument of influence on the markets have their limits — after Iran denied information about successful negotiations, oil began to rise in price again. In addition, it is now the markets that determine US policy — Trump's actions over the past weeks have been aimed at calming the panic on the stock exchanges, as the United States has already faced rising fuel prices and the president's rating has fallen.
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