The Gulf states want to continue the war with Iran. And here's why
The Gulf states, despite the risks, are partly interested in prolonging the conflict between the United States and Iran. With controlled escalation and Washington's military successes, the war could benefit the largest oil and gas exporters. Why else the conflict in the Middle East can be beneficial to the countries of the region — in the Izvestia article.
Hidden benefits
• Arab countries may lose from $120 billion to $194 billion of GDP due to the consequences of the conflict between the United States and Iran, including due to trade disruptions, rising prices and instability. Even a short war causes serious economic and social damage to the region. Unemployment could rise by about 4%. This means the loss of about 3.6 million jobs and an increase in the number of people below the poverty line to 4 million.
• However, some Gulf states are not opposed to the conflict lasting for a long time, as long as it remains under control and does not destroy the economy, trade and infrastructure. In such a situation, they may even receive some benefits, but not everyone benefits equally. Energy exporting countries benefit the most.
Not all Arab countries are equally vulnerable. For example, Saudi Arabia was able to use the East–West pipeline at full capacity — up to 7 million barrels per day.
• First of all, this applies to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia's oil revenue is about $179 billion, while the UAE's is about $89 billion. Even a moderate price increase while maintaining supplies gives them significant additional income.
• Since the beginning of the current war, Brent quotes have increased by over 50-60%, and the forecast for 2026 has been revised to $82 instead of $63. In stress scenarios, analysts generally assume a surge towards $190-200. For the budgets of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar, there is a chance to receive more export revenue from each sold barrel or gas batch.
• However, all these advantages are possible only with strict control of the escalation level. With its growth, the opposite effects begin to prevail, for example, insurance rates increase and shipping decreases (we wrote more about which companies benefit from the deterioration of energy transportation here). The Gulf countries hope that the United States, while continuing its military operation, will be able to put pressure on Iran and ensure uninterrupted exports of energy resources, which have risen in price due to the conflict.
As of April 1, Brent crude futures in June decreased slightly compared to March, but are still trading high at $103.47. For comparison, in February of this year, the price of Brent crude was in the range of $65-73 per barrel.
Politics and security
• There are more than 20 large US military installations in the Middle East (air bases, naval bases, missile defense bases). Key bases are located in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
• In the field of security, the protracted conflict strengthens the role of the United States. For Bahrain, where the infrastructure of the US Fifth Fleet is located, as well as for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, this means an increased presence of Washington in the region, in particular, the development of air and missile defense systems, as well as the expansion of intelligence capabilities. Against the background of the escalation with Iran, the number of American troops exceeded the usual 30-40 thousand and reached at least 50 thousand people.
• The threat from Iran has provoked countries in the region to spend record amounts on defense. The combined military budgets of the Gulf States exceed $100 billion per year. Saudi Arabia consistently ranks among the top 5 countries in the world in terms of military spending (about $75 billion annually), purchasing missile defense systems and drones. A prolonged crisis can accelerate military deals, such as contracts for the supply of Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems.
• One of the key reasons why Arab countries would like to see the conflict continue is to contain Iran by proxy. They see the current leadership of the Islamic Republic as a source of constant threat, and the network of pro-Iranian proxies is of great concern. Such forces operate in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon (we wrote about unofficial participants in the conflict here). Tehran spends up to $20 billion a year on their support. When Iran is drawn into a direct confrontation with the United States, its resources are dispersed, which reduces pressure on Arab countries, for example, the intensity of Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure.
• In fact, the Gulf States are offering the United States a historically new role — conducting a contract war. It's a deal: you fight, we pay. In this case, the payment is new defense orders from American companies, as well as joint investment projects, for which the US president even toured earlier this year. In addition, the rising cost of oil caused by the conflict leads to direct benefits for both Middle Eastern oil exporters and the United States.
• In a situation of external pressure, the authorities of the Persian Gulf countries more easily strengthen control within the country. A significant proportion of the Shiite population lives in the region (for example, in Bahrain — about 60% of the inhabitants), and when Shiite Iran is under constant pressure, it has fewer opportunities to influence the internal situation. As a result, the likelihood of protests and unrest in the Gulf countries is reduced.
• The United States would like to gain public support for the operation from Arab countries in order to strengthen its legitimacy. However, the countries of the region are unlikely to act independently due to the risk of retaliatory strikes by Iran. However, Gulf leaders fear that if Iran's military power is not weakened, it will continue to threaten the region's energy and trade routes.
• Major countries in the region are trying to strengthen their influence and become the main centers of power in the Middle East, but so far Iran has opposed this. Therefore, the weakening or change of power in the republic is perceived by Arab countries as a chance to change the balance in their favor.
• Politically, the largest countries in the region, primarily Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are seeking to strengthen their influence in the region. But their position largely depends on the United States. The more they get involved in the conflict, the more their interests may diverge from Russia and China, which advocate ending the war and preserving Iran.
What does this mean?
• The conflict between the United States and Iran is generally harmful to most Arab countries. It can hit the economy hard, increase unemployment and poverty. Even now, the war is already causing heavy losses due to trade disruptions and rising prices.
• However, the situation is ambivalent for some Gulf countries. In the case of US military successes, countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE can earn more from exporting oil and gas. At the same time, they are politically interested in weakening Iran, as they consider it a threat to the stability of their regimes and the situation in the region. But if Washington fails to weaken Tehran's political regime and the pace of war accelerates, the negative consequences will outweigh any benefits.
When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:
- Leonid Tsukanov, an orientalist and expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs;
- Vladimir Shapovalov, Deputy Director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University.
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