Assault prejudice: Israel wants to avoid a two-front war
Israel hopes that the Lebanese authorities will be able to contain the Hezbollah movement in order to prevent a new war on its territory. An Israeli official told Izvestia about this, stressing that so far the military infrastructure of this group in the country has not been completely destroyed. In many ways, this is why the IDF continues to strike at Lebanese territory, including the southern suburbs of Beirut. However, in the context of the conflict with Iran, it will be extremely difficult for Israel to maintain a high intensity of hostilities on other fronts, experts believe. Meanwhile, more and more countries in the region continue to be involved in the conflict. In particular, UAVs damaged the terminal of Nakhichevan Airport and other civilian facilities in Akhserbaijan. The risks of further escalation in the Middle East are described in the Izvestia article.
Israel and Lebanese authorities against Hezbollah
Israel expects to avoid a full-scale war with Lebanon, despite serious tensions on its northern border. According to an Israeli official, responding to a question from Izvestia, Hezbollah's infrastructure in southern Lebanon has not been completely dismantled, but West Jerusalem believes that the authorities of this country are aware of the risks of further escalation and will try to contain the Shiite movement.
On March 2, the Lebanese Government banned all Hezbollah military activities. According to the Israeli side, there is a growing understanding in the country that the movement's actions may draw Lebanon into a conflict that does not meet its interests.
People with children forced to leave the southern suburbs of Beirut due to the escalation of the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel
— At the same time, the Lebanese government needs to do more than has been done so far. Recent attacks from Lebanon show that Hezbollah has not been completely eliminated, either in the south of the country or north of the Litani River," the official said.
The Hezbollah leadership criticized the decision of the Lebanese authorities, accusing them of unwillingness to resist "Israeli aggression." At the same time, the IDF's strikes on Lebanese territory, including the southern suburbs of Beirut, continue. Hezbollah also claims rocket and drone strikes against Israeli military installations, calling it a response to Israeli shelling.
A building in Beirut destroyed by an Israeli airstrike
Earlier, Beirut announced the completion of the first phase of Hezbollah's disarmament in the territories south of the Litani River. According to the Government, the Lebanese army completed its tasks in accordance with the agreed schedule and deployed its units throughout the south of the country, with the exception of five locations where the Israeli military remains present. However, in Israel, these claims are questioned.
Pro-Western forces in Lebanon are trying to limit Tehran's influence inside the country. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam instructed the security forces to stop any military activities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Lebanon, as well as detain and deport its representatives. In addition, the government decided to restore the visa regime for Iranian citizens in order to prevent the use of Lebanese territory for operations that could undermine the country's security.
Is Israel capable of fighting on two fronts
Under these conditions, tensions in Lebanon are gradually increasing, and the situation risks repeating the scenario of a full-scale war in the south of this country, similar to the events of autumn 2024. At the same time, it will be extremely difficult for Israel to maintain such a high intensity of fighting on several fronts at once, according to Iraqi military analyst Safaa al-Assam.
"Israel is facing a fundamental resource problem: simultaneous escalation in the Lebanese and Iranian directions, potential threats from the Gaza Strip, Syria, Iraq and the Yemeni Houthis create a serious burden on the military system," the expert told Izvestia.
Israeli armored vehicles on the border with Lebanon
According to him, as early as 2025, it became noticeable how quickly stocks of precision-guided ammunition are being used up and how difficult it is to maintain a long-term mobilization of reservists. Even with the support of the United States, a protracted conflict in several directions at once can pose risks to the stability of the country's army and economy.
Nevertheless, the country remains ready to respond harshly to any new attacks, an Israeli official told Izvestia. After the events of October 7, he stressed, the IDF intends to strike Hezbollah as harshly as possible in the event of a threat to Israeli facilities and citizens.
Putin spoke with Peseshkian
Meanwhile, more and more countries in the region continue to be involved in the conflict. Iran's response to the strikes by the United States and Israel led to an incident in Azerbaijan: two drones crashed near Nakhichevan Airport, injuring people and damaging the terminal building. Baku blamed Tehran and claimed the right to retaliate, while the Iranian General Staff rejected the accusations and blamed Israel for the incident.
The wreckage of an Iranian UAV on the airfield of Nakhichevan airport
The Azerbaijani ambassador to Moscow, Rahman Mustafayev, told Izvestia that the incident was an unjustified terrorist act against the country. According to him, the targets of the attack were the international airport in Nakhichevan, the terminal building, a school and other facilities.
— As for the "retaliatory measures", I would like to clarify that Baku's position includes political, diplomatic and military measures. First of all, Iranian officials should provide explanations, apologize to the Azerbaijani side, and the perpetrators of this terrorist act should be brought to criminal responsibility," the head of the diplomatic mission said.
Against the background of the escalation, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian. The Russian leader expressed his condolences over the death of Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his family members and civilians as a result of Israeli-American strikes.
Putin also stressed the need for an immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to a political and diplomatic settlement, noting that he maintains contacts with the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Peseshkian, in turn, thanked Moscow for its support and informed about the development of the situation.
Iran's military potential is weakening
Despite the ongoing escalation, some signs of a weakening of Iran's military potential are already being recorded, according to Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel.
— The night of March 6 was the first since the beginning of the war without a single attack from Iran, which indirectly confirms the IDF's reports and Donald Trump's words about serious damage to Iran's missile capabilities — Israel and the United States destroyed about 60% of their rocket launchers. But this, of course, does not guarantee the cessation of shelling. There are still dozens of installations and hundreds of missiles," the expert told Izvestia.
The tail section of an Iranian missile shot down over the territory of Syria
However, the Iranian Air Defense General Staff said that in the coming days attacks on Israeli and US positions will become more powerful and frequent. They also reported that on the morning of March 6, a number of enemy targets were shelled, and this was done in response to the deaths of children as a result of an attack on a school in southern Iran. On February 28, the Iranian authorities announced that the United States and Israel had attacked an elementary school for girls in the city of Minab. According to the latest data, 165 people were killed, mostly female students, as well as their parents and teachers. Another 95 people were injured.
In total, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, more than 1.3 thousand people have been killed in Iran since the beginning of the American-Israeli strikes. As a result of Iran's strikes on Israel, 10 people were killed.
Israeli Ambassador to Russia Oded Yosef said at a briefing on March 5 that his country views the current actions as part of a long-term campaign that can last as long as necessary. The goal, he said, is to change the behavior of the Iranian leadership, which, according to Israel, is pursuing a policy of regional destabilization, developing missile and potentially nuclear capabilities, and also supports the ideology of destroying the Jewish state.
The United States is already discussing the future political structure of Iran. Earlier, US President Donald Trump said that Washington would not like to see a leader like Ali Khamenei, who died as a result of the American attack, at the head of the country. In an interview with Time magazine, he stressed that he expects to play a role in shaping the new government in the Islamic republic and would like to be involved in the process of choosing the country's future leader. Earlier, Trump also told the Axios portal that he should participate in this process, rejecting, among other things, the candidacy of Khamenei's son, Mojtaba.
In Tehran, in turn, issued a harsh warning: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi declared the country's readiness to resist a possible ground invasion by American troops.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
