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- They found the extremes: the US war with Iran could exacerbate the Israeli-Lebanese conflict
They found the extremes: the US war with Iran could exacerbate the Israeli-Lebanese conflict
Israel has prepared a plan for a full-scale military operation against the Shiite Hezbollah group in Lebanon. West Jerusalem will take such a step if the organization decides to support Tehran in a possible conflict with Washington. Iran is the main sponsor of the Shiite group, which has recently managed to regain strength, having received impressive financial support. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Attacks on Lebanese territory
"In response to repeated violations of the ceasefire by Hezbollah, the IDF is attacking the group's terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon," the IDF said on February 19.
Four days earlier, Israeli Air Force aircraft launched a series of strikes on several areas of southern Lebanon — Jabour, the heights of Reyhan, the outskirts of the village of Bsalia, the heights of Iklima in the direction of the settlements of Sajd and Mlih, as well as on the outskirts of Humin. In addition, Lebanese media reported attacks on the outskirts of the settlements of Safi, Sajed and Mlita.
The Israeli military claims that only Hezbollah's military infrastructure facilities were hit.
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into force at the end of November 2024, after 14 months of continuous escalation. The parties agreed that within 60 days the Lebanese army would occupy territories in the south of the country, and the Hezbollah movement would withdraw its forces and infrastructure north of the Litani River, which flows 20-30 km from the border with Israel. In turn, West Jerusalem pledged to completely withdraw its armed forces from the territory of the neighboring state.
The second phase has begun
However, despite the agreements reached, the IDF continues to regularly shell settlements in southern and eastern Lebanon. Israel withdrew troops from the main areas, but maintained a military presence at five strategically important border positions.
The country's authorities insist that the Lebanese army has not fully implemented the agreements, without carrying out a complete demilitarization of the south of the country. Lebanon, meanwhile, claims to have established control over the region, with the exception of territories where Israeli units are still stationed.
At the same time, the second phase of demilitarization officially began in February. According to the commander of the Lebanese army, General Rudolf Heikap, the local military plans to take control of the areas located between the Litani and Avali rivers within four months. He believes that it will take the same amount of time to confiscate the weapons.
We managed to arm ourselves
Currently, the IDF fears that Hezbollah will launch attacks on Israeli territory in the event of a potential military conflict between the United States and Iran. According to Israeli intelligence, Tehran is putting pressure on the Shiite group to enter the war with West Jerusalem during the escalation in the Persian Gulf.
Israel found out that after the escalation in the fall of 2024, Hezbollah a was able to restore a fifth of its military resources both through smuggling through Syria and through domestic production. In addition, according to the Israeli authorities, Tehran sent about $1 billion to the group last year. This is a record amount, considering that until October 2023, the organization received $700 million each.
With this development in mind, West Jerusalem has prepared a plan for a military operation in Lebanon.
The Secretary General of Hezbollah, Naim Qassem, promised to take retaliatory measures in case of aggression from Israel, and also criticized the Lebanese authorities for their willingness to demilitarize the Shiite group.
Escalation is not beneficial to both sides.
Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post—Soviet East at the INION RAS, noted in an interview with Izvestia that the restoration of a fifth of Hezbollah's arsenal after heavy strikes in 2024-2025 is not just a success in restoring part of the logistics chains linking southern Lebanon with Iran, but also a signal of the continued combat capability of the Shiite movement in the format of an asymmetric conflict.
— Even 20% of the previous potential, if we are talking about high-precision missiles, drones, artillery systems, is enough to inflict very painful strikes on strategic targets for Israel, primarily in the north. And even more so to create a threat in border settlements, which creates an additional burden not only on the Israeli social system, but also on various law enforcement agencies, because they are responsible for evacuating the population from these border towns," the political scientist explains.
In his opinion, this is why the deterrence regime here is becoming extremely fragile and dependent on the political situation.
— Financial injections of $1 billion from Tehran are an indicator of Hezbollah's strategic priority in Iran's regional policy, although there is no reliable data. Despite internal economic pressure, harsh sanctions and unrest, mass protests, Iran confirms that the axis of resistance remains the last lever of pressure allowing Tehran to operate on the margins in the region, the expert points out.
The expert believes that Hezbollah in this context is not just a paramilitary movement, but a state within a state, with a deep social base among the Shiite population and other groups that understand the role the group plays in modern Lebanese political life.
— And any new escalation will primarily affect the civilian population of Lebanon, which has not yet recovered from the consequences of the recent conflict. The infrastructure of Beirut and the southern suburbs still bears the scars of past bombings: neighborhoods have been destroyed, not only residential, but also some parts of business districts, the analyst says.
Ostanin-Golovnya clarifies that the IDF's plan for southern Lebanon and Hezbollah has been in place for a long time. In his opinion, little has changed in Israel's approach to this problem. After the events of 2024, the country's doctrine shifted only slightly towards more active preventive actions and causing maximum damage to the enemy's infrastructure as soon as possible.
— If the conflict between the United States and Iran in the Persian Gulf becomes a reality, Lebanon will automatically turn into a proxy war site. The Lebanese media wrote that the US diplomatic mission evacuated some of the employees and their families, so Hezbollah will be forced to demonstrate loyalty to the axis of resistance, it has no other option, the political scientist believes.
The expert is confident that all this will lead to adverse consequences for Lebanon. However, it is premature to claim that a full-scale war is inevitable, although all the signs are there.
— Both sides nevertheless remember the price of the previous phase of the conflict. Israel is definitely not interested in fighting for a long—term nature, because it will be a war of attrition on the northern front," the expert believes.
He also notes that if the situation around Gaza and Syria remains the same, then it will not be easy for Israel from an economic point of view, because it is expensive to provide several directions at once, even for such a developed state.
"In any case, this does not bode well for Lebanon," the analyst concludes.
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