A matter of survival: what will happen to Hezbollah and the Houthis without Iran's support

Israel has attacked the leadership of Hezbollah in Beirut, killing the head of the movement's parliamentary bloc, Mohammed Raad. Earlier, the Lebanese group and the Yemeni Houthis threatened Tel Aviv with retaliation for the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Against this background, the Lebanese authorities took an unprecedented step, calling on the Shiite movement to lay down its arms. For Tehran's allies, what is happening is becoming a matter of survival — without Iranian support, their positions in the region may quickly weaken. How the position of the Iranian proxy forces will change and what role they can play in the conflict is described in the Izvestia article.

The response of the Iranian allies

The Iranian proxy forces Ansar Allah and Hezbollah have declared their readiness to participate in the conflict on the side of Tehran. The Yemeni Houthis plan to resume attacks on ships in the Red Sea. And the Lebanese group launched rockets and drones on Israeli territory, calling it "revenge for the blood" of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

The answer came on the night of March 2. Explosions have occurred in Beirut as the Israel Defense Forces attacked Hezbollah's weapons depots and infrastructure facilities in several areas of the country. According to the Ministry of Health of the Republic, 31 people were killed and another 149 injured. In Tel Aviv, they made it clear that the operation would not end there: the fighting against Hezbollah could last several days.

A column of smoke in one of the districts of Beirut after an Israeli air strike

Photo: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Against this background, Lebanon is talking about the risk of further escalation. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced a decision to ban Hezbollah's armed activities throughout the country and demand the transfer of weapons to the state. If this is implemented, the movement will be under pressure not only from outside, but also from inside Lebanon.

This significantly narrows the room for maneuver. Despite loud statements about the readiness to fight, the real capabilities of proxy structures may be limited, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe.

— Hezbollah considered it necessary to attack Israel, hoping to force it to redistribute forces. But there is another motive: the movement continued to receive financial support from Iran even after the "pager" attack (the massive bombing of pagers in Lebanon on September 17-18, 2024, which killed dozens of people and injured thousands — Ed.). The loss of this support threatens it with gradual degradation to the level of a conventional armed group," said Anton Mardasov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council.

Hezbollah supporters hold a rally in the suburbs of Beirut after the death of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Photo: TASS/EPA/WAEL HAMZEH

At the same time, it's too early to completely write off Tehran's allies, says Kamran Hasanov, a doctor of political science at the University of Salzburg. They raise the cost of the conflict for the enemy. Each rocket or drone launch requires additional resources to respond. The effect here is not only military, but also psychological.

— The West and Israel are acutely reacting to reports of casualties. Proxy forces can pull back part of the impact and strike in sensitive areas. Lebanon borders Israel, and the Houthis control the oil flows through Bab al-Mandeb - these are strategically important points," the political scientist explained.

IDF tanks on the Israeli-Lebanese border

Photo: REUTERS/Shir Torem

But despite the demonstrated solidarity with the Islamic Republic, it is unlikely that these structures will seriously interfere in the conflict, says Vladimir Belov (Yurtaev), head of the Global South Research Center.

— This is an ally's support position, and it has not changed. And this is an example for any union. But they are not capable of resisting US aircraft carrier groups without comparable resources," the expert said in an interview with Izvestia.

What will happen to the Iranian proxies

Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas, and Shiite militias in Iraq have been developing for decades with financial and military-technical support from Iran. This network allowed Tehran to put pressure on the United States and Israel, avoiding a direct military clash.

However, the stability of this structure directly depends on Iran's own resources — its ability to finance, supply, and coordinate its allies. After the 12-day war, there were already signs of weakening ties. In particular, there were problems with Hezbollah's military technical support and logistics. The current situation looks even more serious.

Vladimir Belov believes that Hezbollah has a chance to evolve into a full-fledged political player inside Lebanon. However, this is possible only if the country's internal stability is maintained and there are no attempts to oust Shiite influence from the region.

Hezbollah fighters during the funeral ceremony of the dead members of the organization

Photo: TASS/AP/Hussein Malla

— Because Hezbollah is not only a paramilitary group with militants who live on bases. These are families rooted in society. It is a part of Lebanese society, and to a certain extent, of Syrian society. Of course, the sources of restoration of its military potential are practically zeroed out. But the movement may well become one of the domestic political and social actors within the framework of Lebanese statehood. Let's see how viable this opportunity turns out to be," the expert noted.

At the same time, the Ansar Allah movement, according to analysts, is less rigidly tied to Tehran than is commonly believed.

— There are several centers of influence within the movement. Iran's presence and the extent of its involvement are important, but if Tehran withdraws from the game, it will not necessarily be a turning point for Yemen. The question will be whether the Houthis will maintain their radical attitude and rhetoric, which they demonstrated during the crisis around Gaza," Belov added.

Protest against Israeli and American strikes on Iran in Sanaa, Yemen

Photo: REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah

The Houthis' capabilities are limited by geography, Anton Mardasov confirmed. However, they have already developed local missile production, and direct military-technical ties with Iran have intensified only in recent years.

— Despite the support from Tehran, the Iraqi Hashd al-Shaabi militia also retains some autonomy. At the same time, Baghdad is not interested in a large—scale escalation, as it is trying to balance between Iran, the West and the Persian Gulf countries," the source added.

As for Hamas, according to Belov, much will depend on diplomatic processes and regional initiatives. American projects such as the "City of the Future" may well create the prerequisites for the gradual demilitarization of individual zones.

The ruins of Gaza

Photo: REUTERS/Dawoud Abu Alkas

Thus, the fate of the Iranian proxies will be determined not only by their own stability, but also by how seriously the center of power in Tehran will weaken. If Iran's influence is significantly reduced, it could lead to a rebalancing of the entire Middle East.

— In this case, the concept of the so—called "New Middle East" may be updated again, - the analyst pointed out. — We are talking about the creation of new state entities, for example, Kurdistan. And also about the profound transformation of the existing political map of the region, up to a union or a confederate model of state interaction with the strengthening of the role of Israel.