To spite everyone: what will happen to the US economy in 2026
In December 2025, it was reported that the US economy grew by 4.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, significantly exceeding analysts' initial expectations. The data about this is published on the website of the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the USA. Izvestia has figured out whether the economic recovery in the United States will continue in 2026, as well as whether a January 31 shutdown is possible.
U.S. Economic Growth
According to a preliminary estimate published on the website of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the country's real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 4.3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, which was the highest growth rate since the second quarter of 2023. It is important to note that analysts expected it to slow down to 3.3% after 3.8% in the second quarter.
Consumer spending, primarily on medical services and computing equipment, was identified as the main driver of growth. Government spending on defense and export growth also contributed. It is noted that business investment slowed down, while imports declined, which further supported the GDP indicator.
US President Donald Trump demonstrates a signed executive order after completing his speech at the "Make America Rich Again" event in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, DC, April 2, 2025
On April 2, 2025, US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on goods from 183 countries. As he explained at the time, the duties are designed to help restore the country's economy and prevent fraud. Later, tariffs with individual countries were adjusted, but at the beginning of the year, companies rushed to prevent the impending price increase due to duties by purchasing more products, which led to a sharp increase in imports. After the introduction of tariffs, it decreased sharply, while exports, on the contrary, increased.
Donald Trump, in turn, linked the data on GDP growth with the results of his policy, declaring the beginning of the "golden age" of the American economy.
As Sergey Kislitsyn, Deputy Director for Scientific Work at IMEMO RAS, told Izvestia, the effect of Trump's trade policy is still ambiguous. He notes: The US Council of Economic Advisers wrote that the pro-inflationary contribution of tariffs is quite negligible, on the contrary, they had some deflationary effect.
— That is, in general, they have not reversed any trend. Yes, inflation has persisted there, but they have not made any serious contribution to its development," he explains.
It is noteworthy that the report of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis appeared against the background of the publication of survey results, according to which Americans are mostly dissatisfied with Donald Trump's actions in the field of economics and the duties he imposed. According to a survey from mid-December, only 33% of citizens were satisfied with the economic policy of the American leader.
Data reliability
American political scientist Malek Dudakov, in an interview with Izvestia, noted that there is currently no consensus in the United States on the reliability of statistics. He notes that earlier in American politics, they believed the figures published by government statistical agencies, but now there is no such thing.
— Republicans accuse these agencies of always helping Democrats and drawing positive figures for them. Therefore, Trump changed the leadership of these agencies and began to lay off employees. Now the Democrats are saying that the current agencies are drawing the figures that are beneficial to Trump," explains Malek Dudakov.
At the same time, the American expert does not rule out that there was economic growth, but 4% is too much.
"Under the conditions of the shutdown, not all economic statistics were collected in full, so it is possible that later there will be many revisions of the data and, accordingly, the final figures will be smaller than what we see now," he explains.
Sergey Kislitsyn also pointed this out, noting that a number of reports have not yet been published. However, he adds, the situation is not critical, all the data will be calculated and corrected later. There was growth, because there is no reason to believe that the country was slipping into recession or something was wrong.
The expert also draws attention to Trump's attempts to influence officials and dismiss many people from their posts. However, Sergey Kislitsyn adds, the services in the United States maintain relative independence and provide figures based on how they calculate them. In this regard, it is hard to believe in manipulating numbers.
— I can't imagine the device starting to work that way. Because it's not just the president who decides this. The whole world and business are looking at the numbers. And if all of us who are interested in the American economy really saw some glaring distortions, it would become a topic for discussion," explains Sergey Kislitsyn.
Forecast for 2026
Data for the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be published in January-February of this year and will show a slowdown in economic growth. The delay is due to the suspension of the work of the US government, which lasted from October 1 to November 13, 2025. According to preliminary estimates, positive growth of about 2% is expected in 2026.
Malek Dudakov told Izvestia that the main expectations for 2026 are that the US economy will continue its "soft landing," meaning its growth will slow down.
— They hope that there will be a decline in inflation and this will allow them to lower the key rate and somehow support the stock and debt markets and the US economy as a whole. At the same time, of course, there is a certain risk that the country's economy may find itself in stagnation or recession," the expert notes.
Sergey Kislitsyn does not agree with this. In his opinion, we should not expect a recession, on the contrary, more or less moderate growth will continue. At the beginning of this year, there may be talks about problems in the US economy, but the expert draws attention to the fact that inflation has been kept down, there is growth, and the Federal Reserve System (FRS) is lowering the rate.
He also points out that this year it is worth keeping an eye on who will become the new head of the Fed, as well as what priorities he will outline. He explains that current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has kept interest rates fairly high for a long time, and it was important for Trump to lower them.
— The president needs to show that his economic policy is working correctly, that tariffs are not inflationary, but on the contrary, industrial production is booming in the United States, investment is starting to flow, and it is becoming more profitable not only to develop but also to produce products. To do this, it was very important to lower the interest rate," explains Sergey Kislitsyn.
He also adds that this year there has been an active discussion about whether the Fed can and should be independent, due to the fact that the processes that take place in it and the decisions made about the interest rate are ambiguous.
"It seems to me that the main expectation here is who will be the next head of the Federal Reserve, how he will behave in this position and what priorities he will set — fiscal or price stability," the Izvestia interlocutor believes.
It is also important to note that in November 2026, midterm congressional elections will be held in the United States, where the Republican Party currently holds the majority. In 2025, support for Trump, his party, and the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement declined due to the fact that not all of his election promises were realized. In this regard, in 2026, a fierce struggle is expected between Republicans and Democrats for seats in both chambers of the country's legislature. A historical pattern is also important: in midterm congressional elections, the party of the incumbent president usually loses its position, while the opposition party gains a majority in one of the chambers or in both.
"Trump is really trying to play the economic card, which he is not very good at, because ordinary Americans are now facing a cost—of—living crisis," explains Malek Dudakov.
The Americanist also points to an increase in unemployment in the country. According to the website of the US Department of Labor, in November there were 7.8 million unemployed (4.6%), which was the highest since 2021.
January 2026 shutdown
On December 23, the last meeting of the Senate took place, and its members failed to reach an agreement on the voting procedure on the budget issue. Because of this, the country is once again talking about the shutdown, which may come as early as January 31.
Malek Dudakov says that the probability of government shutdown is not small, even above 50%. This is due to the fact that in January, Democrats and Republicans will have to hastily agree on the adoption of a new budget. He also adds that the parties have not been able to find a compromise on the main issue of insurance subsidies.
Sergey Kislitsyn agrees with this.
— Unfortunately, the two ruling parties cannot agree among themselves, because they occupy polar positions on almost the entire range of issues. Probably, not counting foreign policy and relations with Russia, because here both parties are mostly anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian. Everything else is a field for discussion and very heated arguments," the expert explains.
The expert also adds that American politicians now prioritize values and ideas rather than the stable operation of the federal budget and the entire state system. Shutdowns in the United States are not uncommon, the last one turned out to be record—breaking, but government suspensions are a completely common story, Sergey Kislitsyn draws attention.
— If they do not have time to adopt a new budget by January 31, the United States will face a new shutdown. That is, the endless "groundhog day" will be repeated there. It is very symbolic that this holiday is celebrated on February 2," concludes Malek Dudakov.
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