Without molecules of freedom: why US gas prices are breaking records
The strategy of "energy dominance", which Donald Trump made the banner of his return to the White House, turned out to be not so easy to implement. In recent years, the United States has promised to flood the world with cheap resources and at the same time reduce bills for American households. But while LNG terminals in Texas are breaking records for gas shipments to Europe, trying to replace Russian gas, the United States suddenly has a problem with fuel availability. Gas prices have soared to three-year highs, coal-fired power plants that environmentalists have already scrapped are returning to service, and ordinary Americans are finding themselves paying for the energy security of the European Union out of their pockets. Details can be found in the Izvestia article
The price of solidarity
The American gas market is booming by the end of 2025: wholesale prices have jumped by more than 70% over the past 12 months. In early December, quotes at Henry's key hub in Texas broke through the $5.29 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) mark. This is the highest level since December 2022, when the global hydrocarbon market was in a fever from the effects of the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis and the severance of Europe's energy ties with Russia.
The reason for this rise lies on the surface — the Atlantic Ocean. The United States exports record volumes of gas. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), exports reached a record 9.41 million tons in September 2025. In total, the country plans to export about 421 million cubic meters per day, or 153 billion cubic meters per year, which is 25% more than in 2024.
The launch of new terminals such as Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana has opened the floodgates for the outflow of blue fuel abroad. Europe, which is trying to buy as much as possible so as not to return to purchases from Russia, has become the main beneficiary. However, for the American market, this has created the effect of communicating vessels: by exporting gas, America imports high world prices. As noted by IEEFA analyst Clark Williams-Derry, "this is great news for the gas industry, but bad for the consumer." During the coldest days of winter, when cold waves from Canada enter the United States, local boilers are forced to compete for the same gas with customers from Spain or France and sometimes lose this price war.
"The most expensive gas in the world"
The problem is compounded by the chronic underfunding of the internal infrastructure. The United States finds itself in a paradoxical situation: the country is literally floating in gas, but it cannot deliver it to where it is needed. The situation is typical in New England (in the states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont). Due to political decisions and the opposition of eco-activists, the construction of new pipelines to this region has been blocked. As a result, while gas costs about $4 per MMBtu in Appalachia (Virginia), prices are approaching $14 in Boston (Massachusetts) this winter. It is the most expensive fuel not only in America, but also in the world.
Market forces were suppressed by political ones, which led to the fragmentation of the single market. In fact, there are currently two gas markets in the United States: one is export—oriented and highly profitable, and the second is domestic, suffering from shortages and price imbalances.
The EIA forecasts are disappointing: in 2025, the average price of gas for power plants will increase by 37%, and for industrial consumers by 21%. This is a direct blow to the competitiveness of American industry, which has enjoyed the benefits of cheap energy over the past decade.
The Coal Renaissance
The most unexpected consequence of the "gas inflation" was the return of coal. What the lobbyists of the coal industry could not achieve, market prices did. Gas became too expensive to generate electricity, and utilities began to switch massively to cheaper coal.
Statistics indicate a reversal of the long-term trend. Reserves of thermal coal will fall by 17% by the end of the year — it is simply burned faster than it can be extracted. Consulting company Wood Mackenzie has already revised its forecasts: if two years ago they expected a 60% drop in coal generation by 2032, now the decline is estimated at only 39%.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright, appointed by Trump, openly calls for stopping the decommissioning of coal plants. "Energy sobriety has returned to Washington," he said, meaning that the ideological principles of the "green transition" are receding in the face of the threat of blackouts. The boom in artificial intelligence and data centers that has unfolded in recent years - the technologies of the future — will be provided by burning the dirtiest fuels of the past, because there is not enough gas for everyone.
The drill is not keeping up with demand
The fundamental problem of the American market is that the boom in demand (exports and data centers) is outstripping the physical capacity to increase production. Rapidan Energy Group experts have calculated that in order to satisfy market appetites by the beginning of the next decade, the United States needs to increase production by 566 million cubic meters per day.
But where can I get these volumes? Here, the American energy industry is trapped by its own geology. A significant part of the increase in production in recent years has been provided by associated gas, which is a "bonus" for oil production, primarily in the Permian basin. In 2024, such gas production increased by 6% to 524 million cubic meters per day, providing 37% of all gas production in key regions. In the Permian basin, this share reaches 47%.
However, associated gas is a hostage to oil prices. It is extracted only when it is profitable to drill for oil. Now, when world prices for black gold are under pressure and far from triple-digit values, oil companies are in no hurry to aggressively drill new wells. And if there is no new oil, there is no increase in cheap associated gas.
Hopes for pure gas fields such as Haynesville or Marcellus are running into economic barriers. Haynesville is a deep, hot reservoir with a high cost of production. Rapidan analysts predict that "cheap gas sources do not seem to be able to provide the growth needed to meet demand." The era of gas at $2.5 per MMBtu may soon be a thing of the past.
A dim future
In the case of the United States, there was a kind of resource curse on the contrary. By trying to become a global guarantor of energy security for its allies and at the same time feed the voracious AI sector, the United States has disrupted its own energy balance. The prospects for 2026-2030 look tense. LNG export capacity on the Gulf Coast will double, sucking even more resources from the domestic market. Forward curves show that prices at the Henry hub can go above $5 per MMBtu and gain a foothold there for a long time.
For Europe, this means that American LNG will be available, but at "biting" prices. The American voter, in turn, gets a cold shower (perhaps literally) from new utility bills. And for the global market, this is a signal that the era of cheap American energy, which has held down global prices for many years, is nearing its end. The market will now be balanced not by the flexibility of shale producers, but by disrupting demand and returning to coal.
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